Mini Program: Daily real estate industry dynamics summary
1. China Index Academy: Second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities fell both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the year-on-year declines widened
According to the China Index Academy, second-hand housing prices in the top ten cities fell both month-on-month and year-on-year, and the year-on-year declines widened. Month-on-month, second-hand housing prices in Wuhan and Chongqing (main urban areas) fell sharply, by 1.19% and 1.15% respectively; Nanjing, Hangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin fell by 0.7% (inclusive) to 1% month-on-month; second-hand housing prices in Chengdu, Shenzhen and Guangzhou fell by 0.5%-0.7%. Year-on-year, Wuhan had the largest year-on-year decline of 11.04%; Nanjing and Chongqing (main urban areas) followed closely behind, with second-hand housing prices falling by 9.87% and 9.33% year-on-year respectively; Beijing, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Chengdu, Tianjin and Guangzhou fell by 5%-8% year-on-year; Shenzhen had the smallest decline of 4.64%. (Securities Times)
2. China-Thailand Research: The current round of existing mortgage interest rate cuts has room for about 50bp, and the impact on interest rate spreads is controllable with support from the liability side
Dai Zhifeng's team at Zhongtai Securities reviewed the interest rates of existing mortgage loans in 2023: As of the end of 2023, a total of more than 23 trillion yuan of existing mortgage loans have been reduced, accounting for 60% of the existing housing loan scale at the end of 2023. The average reduction is 0.73 points, and the weighted average interest rate after the reduction is 4.27%. According to estimates, the room for the reduction of existing mortgage interest rates in this round is about 50bp, which will affect the 25E interest rate spread of listed banks by -5.6bp, revenue by -3.1pcts, and pre-tax profit by -7pcts.
3. Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities: If houses do not appreciate significantly in the future, they may become consumer goods, and the cost of holding them will be very high
Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, said that the introduction of "housing insurance" and "housing pension" means that in the next 10-15 years, if houses no longer appreciate as much as before, they will become consumer goods and the holding cost will be very high. Taking into account property fees, maintenance fees, pensions, and repair funds, the (holding) cost can be roughly estimated to be 2%. If a house worth 10 million yuan costs 200,000 yuan a year, would you still buy it? The top floor may cost 200,000 yuan, while the bottom floor may cost 50,000 yuan. The difference will be very large. And once this happens, I tell you that renting a house is very cost-effective. (Phoenix Finance)
4. Maoming, Guangdong: Exploring the transformation of commercial stock into rental housing and talent housing
The Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Maoming City, Guangdong Province and seven other departments recently jointly issued the "Several Measures for Further Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of the Real Estate Market in Maoming City" (hereinafter referred to as the "Several Measures"), which proposed 15 policy measures to stabilize and support real estate development. The measures will be implemented from September 2024. The "Several Measures" mentioned that, under the condition that the term of use and the volume ratio remain unchanged, land users are encouraged to change the use of existing commercial land according to market demand, and explore implementation paths such as converting inventory commercial buildings into rental housing and talent housing. At the same time, increase support for personal housing credit. For resident households that take out loans to purchase their first commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans will be adjusted to no less than 15%, and the lower limit on the interest rate will be cancelled; for resident households that take out loans to purchase their second commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans will be no less than 25%, and the lower limit on the interest rate will be cancelled. (The Paper)
5. Liaoning: For state-owned idle factory buildings with a long lease period, rent reduction or exemption for more than one year can be granted
The General Office of the People's Government of Liaoning Province recently issued the "Several Measures for Liaoning Province to Further Promote the Economy to Promote Stability and Quality", which mentioned that efforts should be made to revitalize existing assets. Support enterprises with long industrial chains to build platforms, attract supporting enterprises in the industrial chain and supply chain through integrated management of investment, construction, investment promotion and operation, and revitalize the existing assets of industrial parks. In the process of disposing of idle land, if enterprises start construction and development in accordance with laws and regulations, the idle land disposal procedures will be terminated, and no idle fees will be charged or land use rights will be recovered free of charge. For real estate investment trust (REITs) projects that have been reviewed by the National Development and Reform Commission and recommended to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, support will be given for the preliminary work expenses, and a one-time reward and subsidy of 50% of the actual expenditure will be given, up to 1 million yuan. For those who rent idle state-owned stock factories, combined with market demand, for those with longer lease periods, rent reductions of more than one year can be given during the lease period.
6. Guangdong Yunfu pilots the business of converting personal commercial housing mortgage loans into housing provident fund loans
On September 12, the Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Yunfu City, Guangdong Province issued a notice to pilot the business of converting personal commercial housing mortgage loans into housing provident fund personal housing loans throughout the city from September 13. The policy involves the amount and term of commercial-to-public loans. The specific provisions are as follows: the amount of commercial-to-public loans shall not exceed the balance of commercial loans, the assessed value of the house, and the loan term shall not exceed the remaining years of the commercial loan. The implementation of this policy aims to provide home buyers with more loan options and reduce the cost of buying a house.
7. Zhangshu City, Jiangxi Province: The maximum amount of provident fund loans for families with many children will be increased by 20%, and "both withdrawal and loan" will be supported.
On September 12, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Zhangshu City, Jiangxi Province, in accordance with the instructions of provincial leaders and the deployment of the Yichun Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government, drafted the "Several Measures (Interim) on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", aiming to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market by increasing the support for housing provident funds. The measures particularly support the policy of "both withdrawal and loan" for provident funds. For local employees who contribute to the provident fund in multi-child families (excluding flexible employment contributors), if they meet the conditions for withdrawing housing provident funds for renting a house, the maximum withdrawal limit will be increased by 20%. After the adjustment, the maximum withdrawal limit for housing provident funds for local employees who contribute to the provident fund in multi-child families and their spouses is 1,920 yuan/month. In addition, for local employees who contribute to the provident fund in multi-child families who meet the conditions for housing provident fund loans, the maximum loan limit will also be increased by 20% when applying for housing provident fund loans. After the adjustment, the maximum loan amount for dual-contribution employees can reach 960,000 yuan, and for single-contribution employees it is 720,000 yuan. The introduction of these measures not only reflects the care of the Zhangshu Municipal Government for families with many children, but also helps to ease the pressure of these families on housing issues and further stimulate the vitality of the real estate market. By improving the efficiency of the use of housing provident funds, we can better meet the housing needs of citizens and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
8. Shenzhen Talent Housing "Triple Crown" Runlongyuan's new product has been approved for pre-sale, and 358 units will be launched
On September 12, Runlongyuan, the "Triple Crown" of Shenzhen's talent housing, came again, and the new housing source has been approved for pre-sale license. This batch of new products is 2 building king units, with 358 new housing sources, including 269 two-bedroom units with a construction area of about 69 square meters, 89 three-bedroom units with a construction area of about 89 square meters, and a total price of about 1.47 million for two-bedroom units and 2.37 million for three-bedroom units. It enjoys the full range of supporting facilities in the ecological city, the attributes of the community building king, and outstanding cost performance. The Runlongyuan project in Guangming Fenghuang Street, Shenzhen, with its outstanding product design and precise market positioning, has performed well in the talent housing market in 2024. It has achieved outstanding sales results in four consecutive openings, with a total transaction of 1,440 units, a sales rate of 86%, and a gold rush of more than 2.5 billion yuan, becoming the "Triple Crown" of Shenzhen's talent housing market. Since April this year, Runlongyuan has successfully launched three batches of more than 1,600 talent housing units, with nearly 90% of them sold. The project has been highly sought after by the market, especially in the early stages of construction, and has become a "net-famous project". The new housing units have obtained pre-sale permits, including 269 two-bedroom units with a construction area of about 69 square meters, 89 three-bedroom units with a construction area of about 89 square meters, with a total price of about 1.47 million for two-bedroom units and about 2.37 million for three-bedroom units. They enjoy full-range supporting facilities in the ecological city and have obvious cost-effectiveness advantages.
9. Hainan Baisha County: Encourage college students to settle in Hainan. College students and above can purchase one commercial housing unit.
On September 12, the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Baisha Li Autonomous County, Hainan Province, recently issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Control Policy in Baisha County". The "Notice" mentioned that college students are encouraged to take root in Hainan. Students studying in colleges and universities in Hainan Province can purchase one commercial housing in Baisha County with the collective household registration or student ID card of their school. People with Hainan household registration who have settled in other provinces due to studying or working in colleges and universities outside the province are allowed to purchase one commercial housing in Baisha County. People who are not registered in Hainan Province and work in key enterprises and institutions in Baisha County for more than one year, and whose family members have no housing or only one housing in Hainan Province, can purchase one commercial housing in Baisha County.
10. A commercial and residential land parcel in Guicheng Street, Nanhai, Foshan was listed for the second time, with the starting price dropping by 14.7% to 1.43 billion yuan
On September 12, Guicheng Street, Nanhai District, Foshan, re-listed a commercial and residential land parcel, located on the south side of Shiken Steel Market, with a construction area of 143,000 square meters, a starting price of 1.43 billion yuan, and a floor price of 10,000 yuan per square meter. It is reported that the land parcel was listed in June this year and was withdrawn after the extension of the sale. Now it is re-listed with a price reduction of 14.7%, and the bidding is expected to be on October 10. According to the specific information of the land parcel, the land parcel is located on the west side of Guilan Road and the south side of Lujing East Road in Guicheng Street, Nanhai District, Foshan, and the transaction number is TD2024(NH)WG0056. The land area is 47,700 square meters, the plot ratio does not exceed 3, and the building height limit is 143,100 square meters. The auction deposit is 286 million yuan, which must be received before 17:00 on October 8. The land parcel adopts the highest bidder method, with a bidding ladder of 14 million yuan and the start time of the limited time bidding is 11:00 on October 10.
11. U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell sharply, boosting home purchases and refinancing applications
Mortgage rates in the United States fell to their lowest level since February 2023 last week, a positive for the housing market that encouraged homebuyers and stimulated an increase in refinancing applications. Data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) on Wednesday showed that the contract rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell 14 basis points to 6.29% in the week ending September 6, falling for the sixth consecutive week. Lower financing costs pushed the MBA home purchase application index up 1.8% to the highest level in nearly two months. The mortgage refinancing application index rose 0.9% to the second highest level since May 2022. Mortgage rates have continued to fall for weeks, which is driving more potential buyers out of the sidelines and into the housing market, while the housing market still faces challenges brought by insufficient inventory and rising prices of used homes. The average contract rate for 15-year mortgages fell 27 basis points to 5.71%, also the lowest since February 2023. The average contract rate for floating-rate mortgages is also falling.
12. The White House: Housing inflation persists, and affordable housing policies will ease housing market pressure
The White House issued a statement stating that, as pointed out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, housing inflation in August was the "major factor" in inflation this month. While we are careful not to read too much into any one month's data points, housing pressures on headline inflation have persisted and are clearly related to a very tight housing market and a shortage of affordable housing that has developed over a decade. Home price trends illustrate the structural supply shortage in the U.S. housing market. This shortage has been going on for at least 10 years, and the Council of Economic Advisers analyzed the issue in great detail, focusing on the factors behind the shortage. More importantly, we explain the policies proposed by the Biden/Harris administration to significantly improve this gap. We believe these measures, which require congressional approval, can quickly begin to add 2 million to 3 million units of affordable housing. This will significantly reduce the shortage of affordable housing and have a corresponding impact on prices. The sooner we start implementing this agenda, the better for American families.
13. Fed mouthpiece: Housing inflation reduces the likelihood of a sharp rate cut by the Fed
Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece," said that firmer housing inflation has driven a stronger-than-expected increase in core inflation, which reduces the likelihood of a further 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting next week. Officials have already hinted that they are ready to cut rates at this meeting, and the CPI data released on Wednesday will not change that. But some officials have not completely ruled out the possibility of a larger rate cut, rather than the traditional 25 basis point cut.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data