|From 0xScope Research Institute Author: coolboy
With the development of the Crypto industry, more and more projects have come into view. How to analyze and judge "good projects" from many projects of mixed quality has increasingly become an essential skill for industry participants.
For any projects and products, I always believe that they should be "people-oriented". Whether it is DeFi financial products, platform products such as NFT trading markets, or other types of products, the problems to be solved should always focus on "users", and use this as a starting point to solve the inconveniences and difficulties encountered by users in the development of the industry. Will be accepted by users and the market. Among similar competing products, users will “vote with their feet.” Therefore, user data is important data for judging and evaluating the quality of the project, and the user data growth index is the vane of the long-term development trend of the project.
In the current NFT trading market, BLUR seems to be a dark horse, and its top-level VC + pixel style UI + professional trader system has attracted people's interest.
The 0xscope Insight panel clearly displays Blur's user data, with statistics from the two dimensions of address number and entity number.
The 0xscope team proposed a new perspective of introducing the entity concept, which is a real user concept obtained by analyzing the correlation between addresses and other correlation indicators through the watchers algorithm. It can be simply understood as the real “person” behind the manipulation of multiple “wallet addresses”. The entity perspective can more intuitively reflect the true number of project users. Combining it with the number of wallet addresses can analyze potential information such as the average number of addresses owned by project users.
Taking Blur as an example, as of the time of writing, the total number of wallet addresses that have used Blur is 17,874, while the total number of entities is only 12,093. This means that "people" who use the Blur platform each have about 1.5 wallets that interact with Blur. That is, most people have been using a single wallet address to connect to Blur for NFT transactions, and about half of them use two or more wallets. Addresses are traded through Blur. With this information in hand, when Blur announces the specific number of token airdrops in the future, you can roughly know the average number of $Blur tokens that each address can obtain.
Starting from the address quantity dimension, the figure shows that the average number of daily active addresses of Blur is 861, accounting for 4% of the total number of addresses. Also query the average number of daily active addresses and the total number of addresses of Opensea, Looksrare, and X2Y2.
Starting from the dimension of entity quantity, we can see in the figure that the average number of daily active entities in Blur is 825, accounting for 7% of the total number of entities. Also query the average number of daily active entities and the total number of entities in Opensea, Looksrare, and X2Y2.
The horizontal comparison of the above two sets of data reflects that Blur's daily activity ratio is better than that of the other three platforms. In the current downturn in the NFT market, Blur's performance can be said to be remarkable. Of course, this relative data-level lead does not mean that Blur is stronger than Opensea, Looksrare, and X2Y2. In fact, due to Blur's late start, the user level lags far behind the other three platforms, which has led to the phenomenon of relatively concentrated active users in a small pool of Blur. If Blur's relative data advantage can exceed the long-term as the number of users grows, Other platforms, then we can say that Blur is better than other platforms, this still needs time to test.
The user coincidence rate of the platform is equally important, or even more critical.
For first-mover products, the lower the user overlap with later products, the better. This shows that the first-mover product has firmly occupied the market share and has strong product appeal. The user support rate is high and the stickiness is strong. Only use its own products. product. For later products, there will be a high overlap rate with users of other products, as is the case with Blur.
The user overlap rates of Blur with Opensea, X2Y2, and Looksrare reached 92.89%, 68.33%, and 58.94% respectively, all of which are at a relatively high level. Blur is a trading platform that started relatively late. Prior to this, the entire NFT trading market had already reached considerable scale, and other platform products were also relatively mature. Therefore, a large part of Blur's users are mature users who have migrated from other similar competing products. These mature users have the basic ability to trade NFT and are familiar with the NFT market. Only a small number are newly generated incremental users. From the side, Blur’s products are attractive and make mature users of other platforms willing to try new trading platforms. This is the performance of users “voting with their feet”. The gathering of mature users can give positive feedback to the Blur platform to promote the development of Blur products, forming a positive cycle of [Platform - User - Platform].
As can be seen from the above figure, Blur's user growth has gone through two stages since the launch of the product. In the first stage, the growth was slow from October 1st to 19th. In the second stage, the number of platform addresses and entities increased rapidly from the 20th. Continued growth. The reason is that on the 19th, Blur opened the first-stage Airdrop Box application and announced the token expectations and second-stage Airdrop rules, attracting a large number of users to Blur for pending orders. This kind of marketing method is the icing on the cake rather than the key factor that determines the quality of the product. Fundamentally speaking, the success or failure of the product still requires the product itself to have advantages and highlights to attract users. Blur's user growth was triggered by the announcement of airdrop expectations. The long-term sustained growth and good social reputation are accumulated by the professional trading system of the Blur platform.
In the Blur user growth chart, there is a period of sudden drop in the number of entities. This is because the 0xscope update has optimized the watchers algorithm. The optimized algorithm can more accurately determine the correlation between addresses and better match addresses with "people". More accurate algorithms can assist researchers in better analyzing projects.
Judging from the development trend of similar products in the picture above, since the launch of the product, the gap between Blur and X2Y2 and Looksrare in the number of active addresses/entities has gradually narrowed and accompanied each other, but the gap between Blur and Opensea is relatively large. Considering the huge gap in the absolute number of users between Opensea and Blur, the relative gap in daily active users is actually not that big, and the ratio of daily active users is even better than that of Opensea.
As a latecomer, Blur has attracted many mature users of competing products through the platform's own highlights and Airdrop marketing methods, and gained user traffic. From this point of view, it can be called a "good project".
The platform must not only attract people, but also find ways to keep them. In the past month, Blur's user retention ratio based on interactive activity was 11.95%, Looksrare's was 8.73%, X2Y2's was 14.62%, and Opensea's was 26.21%. Judging from past data, Blur is comparable to Looksrare and X2Y2, and in the short term ( The user retention rate (within the first two weeks) (31.05%) is not much different from Opensea (36.49%). But if it wants to challenge Opensea's leading position, Blur must have a more adequate user growth plan and a better experience to retain users.
In summary, we compared the total number of users, user overlap rate, user growth trend, and user retention data indicators between Blur and existing major NFT trading platforms from the two dimensions of address/entity number. It is found that Blur lags behind in terms of the absolute number of existing users, but in terms of long-term growth indicators, Blur does not lag behind and has growth vitality. Now the entire NFT market is still in a sluggish state, and Blur's user growth rate is slow. When the market picks up and old users return and new incremental users pour in, Blur's late-mover advantage will be more fully demonstrated. For this type of projects, I think projects with excellent user data performance and sustained growth are good projects.