Last night, the founder of TG was arrested in France. Due to the close relationship between TON public chain and TG, the TON public chain plummeted.
The TON public chain has been doing well this year, leveraging the advantages of TG to guide users into the public chain, that is, entering the web3 field.
This is both an advantage and a disadvantage, because it is too dependent on a certain entity or person, just like the previous case when CZ faced US charges that led to the sluggish price of BNB. These risks are black swan events, which cannot be predicted in advance.
Therefore, we should pay close attention to relevant events when investing, and it is best to make decisions after the trend of events becomes clear. For example, it is not a good choice to buy TON and its ecological project tokens at the bottom at present. You may bet on a rebound, but the risks are great. You should wait for the development of subsequent events and make decisions after the trend becomes clear.
Many people saw that the founder of TG was arrested and prepared to buy TON at the bottom:
The suggestion is to buy at the bottom but not hold it for long:
1. TON’s biggest expectation before was to be listed on Binance, which has been fulfilled.
2. The price of TON includes expectations for the ecosystem. Now that the founder has been arrested, it will be difficult for ecosystem projects to be listed on Binance.
3. Several heavyweight projects in the ecosystem have already been listed on Binance. In fact, after grabbing Telegram’s users a few times, there are enough of them and they are not in a hurry to list more projects.
4. Looking back at the various altcoins that were previously sued by the SEC, as well as the historical trends of BNB after CZ was pledged, after a rebound, they were all in a long period of weak market conditions, and even fell below the price after the news came out. The current price is not the real bottom.
What does it take to be considered a violent bull market?
In my opinion, only when most retail investors can make money can it be called a violent bull market. At present, many people's altcoins are still in a state of being trapped, and no one is an exception. In the first half of the year, many capitals have been supporting the SOL chain, and Binance has also launched many currencies on the SOL chain. However, it is obvious that this has not attracted new funds to enter the market.
Most retail investors are still losing money on the SOL chain, which does not generate wealth and makes it difficult to attract new entrants.
At present, the violent bull market is just missing an opportunity, an opportunity that will allow outsiders to rush into the cryptocurrency circle regardless of everything. In 21 years, shib skyrocketed tens of thousands of times, and many retail investors profited from it, which in turn led to more outsiders entering the market.
At that time, it was so crazy that many newcomers asked how to buy shib. So, in my opinion, the SOL chain has not brought any substantial benefits to the cryptocurrency circle. Instead, it has been cutting leeks from each other in the circle and consuming the funds in the circle.
Recently, those capitals and exchanges realized that the SOL chain cannot be supported, so they began to support the ton chain. It depends on whether a big golden dog can be born on the ton chain to attract outsiders to enter the market. In the second half of the bull market, you must not go all in on altcoins and use funds that you can bear the risk of zeroing to play with these altcoins.
Let’s take a chance and see if we can seize this wealth effect. I think this round of opportunities is more likely to appear on BTC and TON networks.
Is there any chance that the price of Bitcoin will fall below 50,000 yuan?
Obviously, no one predicts the short term
But if there is still a chance to reach less than 50,000, what could be the possible reason?
As mentioned in the previous article, there has always been a view that if the interest rate cut occurs when the US stock market is strong, there will often be good performance in the following months.
The current result of capital voting is that the probability of a 25bq interest rate cut in September is 60%+, and the probability of a 50bq interest rate cut is more than 30%.
If it finally drops by 50bq, forget about wanting to get it to within 5w in the short term. The unexpected good news will quickly accelerate the takeoff.
If it just drops by 25bq, then it’s okay, the bull market will continue, but it will be slower, and it will take longer.
If it does not drop and continues to remain unchanged, it will be considered a "black swan". In this case, there may be another chance to reduce the price to less than 50,000.
Therefore, whether or not the amount can be reduced to less than 50,000 yuan again depends on which scenario will follow.
Personally, I am more optimistic that it will drop, but it will only be 25 bq, so it won’t drop much.
You can find out how to get there by walking and watching.
