Dear cryptocurrency friends, the content of this live broadcast is summarized as follows, for your reference and learning only. Thanks to the BTB investment research team for the compilation.
Before Powell's speech, the US PCE data came out first, 713,000, which was positive. The news ended at 10:10 and there was no follow-up report. BTB Investment Research listened to the live broadcast of Powell's speech, which lasted 50 minutes in total, and the last 40 minutes were for reporters to ask questions.
The overall trend of the news is that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates in September, and now the only discussion is how much the rate cut will be. Bitcoin suddenly rose slightly at this moment, and my Bitcoin and Ethereum positions have been reduced. The translation of the facts on the news is relatively accurate, and the main content is: Powell said: The time for policy adjustment has come, and we do not need or welcome further cooling of the labor market. I am confident that inflation will return to 2%. We must work hard to strengthen the labor market and stabilize prices. We are prepared for a weak labor force. The weak labor force is not caused by layoffs, but mainly caused by a decrease in recruitment due to an increase in the labor force. And so on, once these remarks came out. The certainty of a rate cut has greatly increased.
The following is a summary of the subsequent 40 minutes of questions:
Powell answered reporters that the US economy is good, with GDP at 2.1% and a future forecast of 2.6%. PCE data is also good, and unemployment has increased but is within controllable range. The unemployment panic caused by Intel layoffs has expanded, but it is not that serious. Whether to cut interest rates in September depends on whether inflation is controlled within 2%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has some of its own measurement tools, and it will decide whether to raise interest rates, lower interest rates or keep them unchanged based on specific data. Federal Reserve officials or reporters are individuals, and they can express their views on the Federal Reserve and their own expectations. We have freedom of speech, and specific decisions require the Federal Reserve to hold a meeting and vote. It is denied that the Federal Reserve said in December last year that it would cut interest rates in March this year, in March it said it would cut interest rates in June, and in June it said it would cut interest rates in September. Personal opinions and views do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve.
Overall, the Fed will not cut interest rates in September, but it is creating an atmosphere of rate cuts in order to depreciate the dollar and increase oil and gold prices. The rise in oil prices will lead to an increase in CPI, which will lead to rate hikes. The high interest rates in the United States will lead to an arbitrage process, which will cause the dollar to depreciate, reduce arbitrage risks, and allow other countries' currencies to appreciate. It is also beneficial to the long-term development and national policy of the United States.
For the cryptocurrency circle, as public opinion fuels the September interest rate cut, many retail investors in August and September will think that there will definitely be an interest rate cut and start rushing in. For this reason, we must keep up with the rhythm, withdraw as soon as we take it, and not linger. We must withdraw in early and late September and wait for the implementation of no interest rate cut in September and then enter the market after the market corrects.
When will the Fed cut interest rates? It is expected to be in 2025. Before each rate cut, there will be major financial risks. For this reason, we need to pay close attention to the development of the US economy. The US stock market is still in a bull market, and the Nasdaq may rise to around 25,000 points. Only when all economic data show a turning point, the Fed may cut interest rates. It is impossible to predict when in 2025. Follow up first. Once there is a sign of a rate cut, you must clear your position. By the time the rate cut comes, the financial risks will have already occurred, and it will be too late to retreat.
Watching live broadcasts and reading news are completely different cognitive levels. You can't see the characters' micro-expressions in the news, and you can't see them answering reporters' questions. This will affect your judgment and be influenced by public opinion, making it difficult to form your own judgment. It is recommended to watch the original English version.