On August 22 this year, the U.S. Department of Labor revised the decline in U.S. jobs and employment, which should have attracted the attention of the market. The timing and conditions of this downward adjustment may just be in line with the speculation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, including the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Governors Meeting in the United States. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell may have provided an important reference for his dovish tone of interest rate cuts. In comparison, whether the number of U.S. jobs is bad or stable is the focus of discussion. In comparison, the downward adjustment of U.S. jobs and employment does not mean that U.S. employment has deteriorated, and the increase in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.1 to 4.3 does not mean that there is a problem with the U.S. unemployment rate. In comparison, the U.S. unemployment rate is at a historical low level. This shows that the stability of the U.S. labor market still supports the Fed's interest rate hike, rather than the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the U.S. macroeconomic policy management, first, has a plan, second, has a strategy, and third, the timing and conditions are very clever. The current hype about the U.S. employment problem and the U.S. economic recession are to cater to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar may be an important parameter for whether the Fed will raise interest rates or not. It is a bit too early to talk about the US recession, because all expectations now point to a recession next year, not this year, and the probability of a recession next year is now within 30%. So the hype of poor employment and US recession has very clear goals and directions. First, stimulate the Federal Reserve. Second, lower interest rates and push the dollar to depreciate. This strategy and method is definitely worth paying attention to. Don't rush into the future policy orientation of the Federal Reserve. #杰克逊霍尔年会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 $BTC $ETH $BNB