Many people think that the September rate cut is a done deal, which is a positive, and will continue to rebound to 66,000, 70,000 or even higher. In fact, it is just the opposite, and it is currently a bearish period. This logic was discussed two weeks ago, leaving aside the liquidity of market funds. Because the September Fed meeting is on September 17, there is still more than a month away, and the K-line cannot continue to rise in this month, because this period is too long. Institutions will only start to make things happen two weeks before September 17 to cater to the speculation expectations of the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting and raise prices. Therefore, August must first be a correction, and after reaching a low point, it will start to rush up. This is like I promised to give you a candy on September 17, but you still have a month to eat the candy. You are very tormented during this time, and the closer you are to the time point of getting the candy, the more you will look forward to it and get excited, especially when there are only two or three days left, you will be full of infinite desire for candy. And I certainly won't hype how delicious this candy is more than a month in advance. The market's reaction is swift and timely. A topic cannot last for a month. I will only start warming up 1-2 weeks in advance of the time point of giving candy, so that the expected effect of hype is the best. Similarly, when you get the candy and finish it, your excitement value will return to zero. When you return to the market, the price will go down.
Returning to the K-line level, we can only judge the trend by the monthly line. Since March, the monthly line has been arranged in a yin and a yang arrangement. July closed with a yang, and August must close with a yin. The peak and the low point are constantly moving down. This trend is constantly going down. Only when it breaks through and stands firmly at 73,000 in one breath, this downward trend will be broken. You may question whether the bull market is still there. If you look at it purely from the price point of view, it is still a bull market. But from the trend point of view, it is now a bear market. The starting point of this bear market was the break below the bear-bull line on June 18. Although the price has been up and down during this period, it is ultimately going down in the general direction, so the overall trend is bearish. In the future, when it reaches a new low, it will go up again and start a bull market. That will be the real bull market after this halving cycle.