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Macro News

1. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing boom was basically stable. In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMIs of medium and small enterprises were 49.4% and 46.7% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

2. According to the New York Times, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced in a statement that senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran on Tuesday local time while attending the inauguration ceremony of Iran's new president.

3. Lin Zechang, director of the General Office of the Ministry of Finance, said that as of July 26, 1.9 trillion yuan of new bonds have been issued by local governments this year, and more new infrastructure, new industries and other fields will be included in the scope of special bond investment. The allocation of special bond quotas will be tilted towards regions with sufficient project preparation and good utilization efficiency. This year, 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds have been arranged to support "double-weight" projects, and 418 billion yuan has been issued as of July 24.

4. Li Qiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to optimize and strengthen macroeconomic policies and increase macroeconomic regulation. We must not only implement and speed up the progress based on the implementation of the policies that have been issued, but also study and launch a number of incremental policy measures that are highly operational, effective, and accessible to the people and enterprises.

5. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 70 basis points this year, up from 64 basis points earlier.

6. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed's employment and inflation risks have entered a better balance. The second quarter inflation data increased the Fed's confidence. The Fed no longer needs to focus 100% on inflation. If the labor market deteriorates or inflation falls rapidly, the Fed is ready to respond. A September rate cut "may be on the agenda," although the Fed has not yet made any decision on the September meeting.

7. According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 90.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 9.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 21.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 71.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 7.2%.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices rose across the board, with the August contract of U.S. crude oil rising 5.23% to $78.64 per barrel, and the September contract of Brent crude oil rising 4.41% to $81.51 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.69% to $2,493.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.23% to $29.16 per ounce.

3. London base metals closed higher collectively, with LME copper futures up 2.99% to $9,240/ton, LME zinc futures up 2.62% to $2,698/ton, LME nickel futures up 2.61% to $16,490/ton, LME aluminum futures up 4.07% to $2,315/ton, LME tin futures up 5.62% to $30,395/ton and LME lead futures up 3.17% to $2,099.5/ton.

4. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures up 0.22% at 1023.5 cents per bushel; corn futures fell 1.23% to 400 cents per bushel, and wheat futures rose 0.62% to 527.25 cents per bushel.

5. Domestic commodity futures closed at night, energy and chemical products rose across the board, crude oil, soda ash, styrene rose by more than 2%, glass, asphalt, pulp, PVC rose by more than 1%. Black series rose across the board, iron ore rose by 2.67%, hot coil rose by 1.47%, rebar rose by 1.45%. Agricultural products rose and fell. Basic metals closed up across the board, Shanghai tin rose by 3.14%, Shanghai nickel rose by 2.26%, alumina rose by 2%, Shanghai copper rose by 1.86%, Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.63%, Shanghai lead rose by 0.96%, Shanghai zinc rose by 0.73%. Shanghai gold rose by 0.67%, Shanghai silver rose by 1.6%.

Black hot news

1. According to the PMI of the steel industry surveyed and released by the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, it was 42.5% in July 2024, a decrease of 5.3 percentage points from the previous month, setting a new low in a year. It shows that with the arrival of hot and rainy weather in many places, the off-season characteristics of the steel industry continue to appear, and the implementation of the "new national standard" has also brought a more obvious impact on the market, and the industry as a whole has accelerated its downward trend.

2. As of the week of July 31, Zhaogang.com's inventory analysis: the output of building materials was 2.9225 million tons, a decrease of 252,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 7.96%; a decrease of 422,600 tons from the previous year, a decrease of 12.63%. The apparent demand for building materials was 3.0876 million tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from the previous week.

3. It is learned from the National Energy Administration that my country's foundation for energy supply during the peak summer season has been further consolidated. Currently, the coal reserves in the coordinated power plants are over 200 million tons, and the coal reserves in ports are also at a historical high.

4. According to Mysteel, on July 31, some steel mills in Tangshan planned to reduce the price of wet quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, which will be implemented from 0:00 on August 3, 2024.

5. According to Ganggu.com, the national building materials social warehouse was 7.5301 million tons, a decrease of 183,700 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.38%; the factory warehouse was 4.1238 million tons, an increase of 87,700 tons from last week, an increase of 2.17%; the output was 4.0612 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.76%.

6. According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, as of July 31, a total of 38 steel mills have launched maintenance plans. According to preliminary calculations, the production cuts and maintenance have affected a total of about 3.36 million tons of construction steel production. Compared with the previous period (29th), 20 more steel mills were under maintenance, affecting an additional 1.11 million tons of production. Among them, the production cuts and maintenance of most steel mills were concentrated from late July to the end of August (daily production is expected to drop by more than 69,000 tons during this period).

7. On July 31, the 8th (expanded) meeting of the 6th Council of the China Iron and Steel Association was held in Xiong'an. Regarding the current situation facing the steel industry, Yao Lin, Chairman of the China Iron and Steel Association, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of China Mineral Resources Group, analyzed that the steel industry has entered the "stock optimization" stage from the "incremental development" stage. This round of market adjustment is a deep adjustment under the long-term downward trend of total steel consumption. Unlike the periodic imbalance of supply and demand under the previous upward trend, contradictions and problems will not be automatically resolved over time.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. On July 31, China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation issued an announcement stating that in accordance with the work arrangements of relevant departments, China National Grain and Oils Reserves Corporation and its affiliated companies will continue to increase the scale of domestic wheat production in 2024 in the main wheat producing areas.

2. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's official website, as of the week of July 26, 2024, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory was 3.776 million bushels, down 1.72% from 3.842 million bushels in the previous week and 1.963 million bushels in the same period last year.

3. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 to 31 were 1,555,529 tons, an increase of 30.92% from 1,188,180 tons exported in the same period last month.

4. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement that in order to ensure the cotton needs of textile enterprises, it has been decided to issue preferential tariff rate import quotas outside the 2024 cotton tariff quota in the near future. The amount of the cotton import sliding tariff quota issued this time is 200,000 tons, all of which are non-state-owned trade quotas and are limited to imports in the form of processing trade.

5. According to data from shipping research agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 to 31 were 1,604,578 tons, an increase of 22.8% from 1,306,689 tons exported in the same period last month.

6. According to data released by shipping research agency SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 1,486,834 tons from July 1 to 31, an increase of 23.61% from 1,202,864 tons exported in the same period last month.

7. According to the expected values ​​of foreign media surveys, as of the week of July 25, 2024, the U.S. net export sales of soybeans in the 2023/24 marketing year are expected to be 50,000-350,000 tons, and the net export sales of soybeans in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to be 300,000-900,000 tons; the U.S. net export sales of corn in the 2023/24 marketing year are expected to be 75,000-300,000 tons.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. The Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) said that the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 63.6% in the week ending July 27, compared with 66.2% in the week ending July 20; Japan's commercial crude oil inventories increased by 870,000 kiloliters to 10.62 million kiloliters.

2. The latest data from the UAE Fujairah Oil Industry Zone shows that as of the week of July 29, the total inventory of refined oil at the UAE Fujairah Port was 17.785 million barrels, a decrease of 577,000 barrels from a week ago. Among them, light distillate oil inventories decreased by 21,000 barrels to 6.215 million barrels, medium distillate oil inventories decreased by 843,000 barrels to 1.868 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 287,000 barrels to 9.702 million barrels.

3. EIA data showed that as of the week ending July 26, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.436 million barrels to 433 million barrels, a decrease of 0.79%, the lowest since the week ending February 2, 2024; U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 685,000 barrels to 375.1 million barrels, an increase of 0.18%, the highest since the week ending December 23, 2022.

Metal Hot News

1. According to Mysteel's research and statistics, as of July 26, 2024, China's refined nickel 27 warehouse social inventory decreased by 1,795 tons to 28,192 tons, a decrease of 5.99%; warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 811 tons to 16,813 tons; spot inventory decreased by 184 tons to 7,879 tons.

2. According to SMM, Albemarle conducted a tender for the sale of 100 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate. The final result was 81,400 yuan/ton (domestic tax included).

3. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 122,000 in July, lower than the expected 150,000, the smallest increase since January 2024. The previous value was revised from 150,000 to 155,000.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply. Has this round of non-ferrous metal prices reached the bottom?

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that on Wednesday, the non-ferrous metal sector rebounded collectively, with Shanghai nickel leading the gains. From a macro perspective, the actions of overseas central banks in the past two days have attracted widespread attention from the capital side. Although the hawkish policy is not as expected, considering that the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting tonight may mention the September interest rate cut, the gap between the US and Japan interest rates may narrow, the US dollar is still driven by weakness, the macro atmosphere is warming, and the non-ferrous metals that have continued to fall in the previous period have rebounded. From the perspective of the overseas supply and demand of nickel, Indonesia and the Philippines have recently encountered severe weather, and nickel mining and transportation have encountered some obstacles, which have boosted the prices of nickel and stainless steel to a certain extent. At the same time, recent financial reports show that the output of overseas high-cost nickel companies has declined, which has alleviated the pressure brought by the downward demand to a certain extent. Domestically, after the sharp drop in nickel prices in the early stage, it has driven the downstream rigid demand to replenish stocks in the short term, and the output of stainless steel is at a relatively high level, which has a direct pull on the demand for nickel, and the explicit inventory of refined nickel has been significantly reduced. It is expected that the nickel price may stabilize at the current position, and the rebound height still needs to track market sentiment.

2. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has boosted the price of precious metals. Can Shanghai silver continue to rise?

Yide Futures analysis pointed out that the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East on July 31 triggered a rise in risk aversion, which caused gold and silver to rise at the same time. Although the incident was sudden and quite sensitive, the incident was generally a continuation of the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since October last year. However, it should be made clear that since Hamas is only an armed organization and not a legitimate representative of Palestine, this attack is not a conflict between countries and is essentially different from the airstrike on the Iranian embassy. However, the incident took place in Iran, and Iran's response will become the main variable in the subsequent development of the situation. In terms of overall strategy, due to the unpredictability of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to keep a calm mind and avoid excessive betting. In the short term, it is expected that there will still be a certain possibility of fermentation after the outbreak of the incident. It is recommended to respond with a long-term mindset but not chase highs, and wait for opportunities after the price falls back.

Overview of recent important futures data and events

1. August 1 (tbd) SPPOMA will release Malaysia's palm oil production data from July 1 to 31. SPPOMA data shows that from July 1 to 20, South Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.83% month-on-month. Pay attention to the subsequent changes in Malaysia's palm oil production. If the production continues to increase, it may suppress palm oil prices.

2. August 1 (tbd) OPEC+ will hold a ministerial meeting to review its oil production policy. Pay attention to whether there are any adjustments or changes to the oil production policy.

3. USDA oilseed crushing report at 03:00 on August 2. The previous USDA oilseed crushing report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in May was 5.76 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 5.816 million tons. The US soybean oil production in May was 2.271 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 2.214 billion pounds.

4. At 20:30 on August 2, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data for July in the United States will be released. Changes in the labor market have become a key factor in the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, and the market needs to pay close attention to non-farm and other employment-related data.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data