Interest rate cut expected in September, still weak rebound during the day
The market generally predicts that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. However, there is an important question about the FOMC meeting on July 30-31: How clear will the FOMC send its signal? Economist Anna Wong and others believe that the communication of the July meeting will only hint at the initial possibility of a rate cut in September. Fed Chairman Powell may point out that if economic data develops as expected, there will be a rate cut.
The main reason is that there is a lot of data to be released before the FOMC meeting on September 17-18, including two inflation and employment reports, which may change a lot. The clearest hint of a September rate cut may come from Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting in late August, when he will have more employment and inflation data.
Trump's remarks are in line with industry expectations, but the market may need a stronger catalyst to see a major breakthrough. This catalyst may appear as the US election approaches, and when promises and policies become clearer, the market may usher in a major move.
Daily level analysis
Daily level: The market has rebounded rapidly recently and is still in an upward trend. The large-scale support level is around 63,300, the nearest daily support level is around 65,400, and the upper pressure level is around 68,500.
4-hour level analysis
4-hour level: The price is still in an upward trend and may fall back to the support level in the short term. The upper pressure is around 68200 and 67300, and the lower support is around 65300. If it falls below, we need to pay attention to the support around 63300.
Intraday level analysis
The recent sharp drop in Bitcoin is normal, mainly affected by the uncertainty of the US political situation. The game between Trump and Harris, coupled with Harris's lack of experience and lack of support for cryptocurrencies, makes it unlikely that she will win. However, this still has a great impact on cryptocurrencies and the stock market, so there may be more contract liquidations in the near future.
The US government continues to transfer Bitcoin, coupled with political uncertainty, it is difficult for the market to see a significant upward sentiment in the near future. However, it is expected that Bitcoin will soon approach its previous high. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the position where the callback ends.
Intraday correction: The market has a heavy correction sentiment during the day, but the possibility of rebound is increasing. The bottom support is around 65800, which is also a large-scale support level. It is expected to rebound soon, and the upper pressure is around 67000 and 68000.
