This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you act on it, you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
Beijing-based traders: on-chain data users, trend traders.
The market has been fluctuating for nearly a month since it hit a new low on August 17. The daily closing line has remained above 2.55w, which is around 38.2% of Fibonacci. However, recent signs show that a new round of market is not far away.
The figure below shows the USDT perpetual contract holdings of Bitcoin. The low point of the holdings occurred on August 25, and the lowest price was also 25,800. The current price is near the lowest price on August 25, but the contract holdings have increased by more than 14%. The contract funds have entered the game again, and there is a basis for choosing a direction.
Looking at another capital indicator, OBV, the indicator continued to move downward during the period of sideways price movement, which is obviously not a bullish signal.
Judging from the holdings of short-term holders on the chain, the indicator has not risen, indicating that no new buying power has emerged, so it is difficult to be bullish.
Looking at the funding rate, since the decline from the top in 2021, all the bottoms have a common feature - the 7-day funding rate continues to remain negative. This phenomenon has not occurred at present, so the current price is most likely not the bottom.
From the perspective of the long-term trend line - the moving average, the weekly moving average in the figure below has a dense resistance range between 2.7-2.8w. Combined with several important moving average prices, the current positions of the 200-week line, the 200-day line and the 120-day line. It is easy to conclude that from a trading perspective, the current cost-effectiveness of bullish is not high, and it is more appropriate to be bullish above 2.8w. Because the current upside from 2.8w is less than 10%, but the downside is more than 10%.
Therefore, the overall view of Beijing Drifting on the future BTC is still the same as before, mainly bearish. In the near term, there will be no bullish thoughts if it does not exceed 2.8w.
The bottom of the next market is still to focus on the combination of huge volume increase + sharp decline in contract positions, indicating that the short-term market has come to an end and the profit funds are in the bag. In terms of position, you can pay attention to 2.36, 2.17 and 2w.
The same is true for ETH. The price has been running below the rising trend line and the 200-day moving average for many consecutive days, and the pullback has not returned to the trend line. The overall trend is consistent with Bitcoin. After the new pullback begins, you can pay attention to the support near the March low of 1360.
A bear market is very boring. It is meaningless to watch the market every day. The best option is to avoid short-term trading.
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