This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you act on it, you are responsible for your own profits and losses.
Beijing-based traders: on-chain data users, trend traders.
The centralized review of ETFs was postponed again to October 16, and there was no positive news in the short term. The short-term stimulus brought by the news of Grayscale's victory caused the price of the currency to rebound to 2.81w, and was finally blocked below the 120-day line. This rebound can also be seen as a breakout and pullback, and it did not stand back to the 120-day trend line, which can be seen as a reconfirmation of the effective breakout.
In the article on August 18, Beipiao's view is that the rebound will not exceed 2.85. At present, the trend is also within expectations. Beipiao's personal view is still bearish on the follow-up - that is, the direction after the shock is still downward. From the weekly K, MACD has already crossed at the weekly level, and the column line shows a head and shoulders pattern, which is definitely not a bullish sign.
From the price point of view, this week's weekly closing is likely to remain below the 200-week line. This is also a bearish signal, and the week is a break and pullback to the 200-week line. At the same time, there is a long needle in the weekly K-line in mid-March, which is definitely going to be covered. It is only a matter of time before the price pulls back to around 20,000.
In the second half of the bear market, due to the lack of liquidity, prices will be in a low volatility state most of the time, and the rise and fall will be completed quickly in a short period of time, characterized by large amplitude, short time and strong force. Therefore, many resistance and support levels will be crossed by force, making short-term trading extremely difficult. The rapid rise and fall in the past few days is just a microcosm.
The start of the subsequent decline will depend on when it falls below 2.5w. After breaking through, it may get short-term support around 2.38w.
Beipiao’s pinned tweets have opinions on the big cycle trend. At present, the black B wave has been completed. The next step is the final downward C wave.
The following chart shows the views of the Beijing Drifters on the last C wave of decline. It is just a trend chart and does not represent a clear expectation of prices. The 4th wave rebound is estimated to have to wait until next year, when the US stock market will also have an early speculation market due to the expectation of interest rate cuts.
One uncertainty factor is the US SEC's feedback on Grayscale, and there is no timetable for this yet. So there will be some uncertainty. If Grayscale is successfully converted into a spot ETF, the market will definitely be stimulated, but the real bull market will definitely not start because of good news.
ETH's view has not changed much from the tweet on August 23. The current price is oscillating along the blue trend line since June last year.
Details as follow:
We will pay attention to whether the trend line can hold up. I don’t have any bullish ideas for now, at least we will consider it after it stands back to the 120 and 200 day lines.
Follow me and earn maximum trend profits with minimal operations.
