In addition to boosting the cryptocurrency market after the Trump incident, the gold market also saw a surprising performance. Spot gold surged by nearly $47 yesterday, setting a new record high.
Will Bitcoin be the next to hit a new high?
From a medium-term perspective, the market may be pre-positioned for the direction of Trump's policy. In this election, Trump clearly supported crypto assets and made relevant remarks many times, such as defending the right to mine Bitcoin and ending the Democratic Party’s suppression of cryptocurrencies. These stances have given Trump an increased chance of winning the election. , significantly boosting the prices of crypto markets such as Bitcoin.
The inflow of funds to the US Bitcoin spot ETF is also very impressive. The latest data shows that the net inflow is as high as 422 million US dollars, which has been a net inflow for 8 consecutive days and has hit a new high in the past month and a half. This shows that US investors have a strong interest in Bitcoin (pre-positioning) as Trump's chances of winning the election increase.
At the Bitcoin2024 conference to be held on July 25, Trump will also give a speech with many well-known Bitcoin supporters, including independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, and MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor. Let us wait and see what Trump will say then.
The main theme of operations in the second half of the year revolves around - leader!
I have always emphasized that when the copycat stocks start to rise in price, you must operate around the leaders. Some friends asked which tracks are the leaders?
These tracks must be those that are likely to become hot spots in the next bull market wave.
The market direction changes very quickly, and most of them need to be predicted quickly at any time, unless there are some public chain leaders and meme leaders that have experienced the entire bull and bear markets. You don’t need to think about it, you can tell which one it is at a glance.
The public chain leader is sol, and I have mentioned the meme leader many times. The Ethereum ecosystem is pepe, the Bitcoin ecosystem is dog, and the sol chain ecosystem is more optimistic about wif.
Every wave of market adjustment has two dimensions: time and space. Either the space is in place or the time is in place.
In 23 years, each wave of major adjustments from the big cake has been between 20% and 25%:
The Silicon Valley Bank crash in March 2024 (25,000 to 19,000);
From mid-April to mid-June 2023 (31,000 to 24,000),
From early July to August 23 (31,000 to 24,000, second visit in September),
Mid-January 24 (49,000 to 38,000)
There have been two waves from April this year to now (73,000 to 56,000, and 71,000 to May 3). This is a regularity in amplitude and also a regularity in duration.
Since the bear market in 2022, each wave of adjustment and decline has not lasted more than two months, and the large-scale adjustment (double top pattern) has not lasted more than four months. When the time is right, it will either be a big rebound or a real reversal. You can take a close look at the K-line.
We have been talking about the adjustment since mid-March when it reached 73,000, which is very similar to the second and third quarters of 2023. In mid-June, it was believed that the Bitcoin price would reach the low of 56,000 in early May. In early July, it actually fell below 56,000. The magnitude was not accurately judged (the actual decline of Bitcoin price was 27%), but the timing was acceptable.
Sometimes the time dimension is also a very important rule. As for the follow-up, we cannot just look at the reversal, although market sentiment is good: driven by interest rate cuts and expectations of Trump's victory.
However, high emotions may also ebb briefly. When the expectations of interest rate cuts are fulfilled, it is possible that the dealer can see your cards while you cannot. I think it is possible.
We have talked about this year being more like 1995 and 2019, when the economic situation was good and the Fed cut interest rates, but the first rate cut was after the market had a small adjustment and then went up again. And if we look at the second and third quarters of last year, after hitting the bottom in August, there was another test in September, so we will continue to take it one step at a time.
What can be confirmed about Bitcoin at present is that the bottom support has been determined, and it will be difficult for the subsequent market to fall below the position around 53,000 again unless there is a black swan event. What can also be confirmed is that the long-term upward trend has been determined. No matter how it fluctuates in the short term, no matter what negative events occur in the short term, they cannot change the long-term upward trend.
Based on the above deterministic events, short-term fluctuations are uncertain. Bitcoin has risen by about 24% from the bottom to now. It has now reached the key resistance level and may adjust in the short term. However, the market will quickly recover after the short-term adjustment. So from now on, every decline is the best time to buy.
At the copycat level, meme is king and the entire market revolves around meme. Currently, the Trump concept is widely sought after by the market. I think a pattern has been formed in the future where all hot events and hot celebrities will have memes.
