The market withstood the continued selling pressure from the German government last week, and the basic bottom signal has appeared. In addition, the settlement between the SEC and other crypto projects this year has also begun to inject another signal.
For example: Paxos confirmed that the SEC dropped its investigation into its sister stablecoin BUSD;
Stacks infrastructure provider Hiro also announced that the SEC ended its three-year investigation;
Even earlier this month, a federal court ruling “reaffirmed” ETH’s commodity status, etc., which are all potentially positive actions at the macro level.
Bitcoin began to rise after Trump was assassinated. The market logic is simple. Trump is more likely to be elected, and Trump currently supports the encryption industry more strongly, so the market is optimistic about Bitcoin.
At the weekly level, it has returned to the 60,000 mark. The panic in the market has been released. If the weekly level this week remains above 60,000, then it will basically be stable. When I say stable, I mean that the market will continue to fluctuate upward and will completely explode in Q4.
At the daily and 4-hour levels, the market has basically made a V-reversal and has returned to the price when it fell at the beginning of the month. It will fluctuate and adjust subsequently, and then there will be only one direction, up!
The market is nearing the end of digesting the negative impact:
1. Mentougou has landed. The Mentougou incident is like a time bomb, always disrupting the market rhythm. Now that Mentougou has been fully landed, the selling pressure of 140,000 BTC is not large, and there will be no negative impact of Mentougou compensation in the future. Waiting for the selling pressure to be digested to pave the way for subsequent increases.
2. The panic index has reached the panic level. Every time it reaches the panic level, it is basically the end of the wash market. Market sentiment will gradually recover and pave the way for takeoff.
3. The chain is sluggish. BTC and ETH chains continue to be sluggish, and GAS fees are extremely sluggish. Every time the chain cycle is sluggish for more than 2 months, it is a favorable signal that a rebound is imminent.
4..SEC's regulatory attitude has softened. In the past two years, the SEC has always been unfriendly to the crypto market, causing panic in the currency circle. At present, the SEC may have been affected by the election and its attitude has softened. It has approved the BTC ETF and the ETH ETF. In addition, several altcoins that have been targeted by the SEC have recently received favorable news and are no longer targeted by the SEC.
The current market benefits that have not yet appeared are:
1. Ethereum spot ETF is about to be listed. Ethereum ETF will bring new liquidity to the market in history. It is expected to be 1/3 of the big cake, which will drive ETH to rise sharply and drive the overall rise of ETH ecological tokens.
2. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. As expectations for rate cuts increase, the first rate cut may come in September. Market confidence will be greatly restored. After the rate cut, it is expected that liquidity in the cryptocurrency market will return, becoming the main driving force for the launch of the bull market.
3. FTX compensation funds will enter the market. The US$14.5-16.3 billion that FTX can distribute in October will determine whether it will be approved. If approved, it is expected that more than 10 billion additional funds will flow into the crypto market, becoming another powerful driving force for the launch of the bull market.
How will the market develop next?
Stimulated by multiple events, BTC is stronger than expected. Let's see if the small high point of 63800 can be conquered. If it can, 67000 is expected. Only when it stands above 67000 can it be considered a reversal, otherwise it will still rebound.
But a rebound is okay, as long as it doesn’t fall below the channel and continues to fluctuate within the channel for two more months. It won’t be too late to rebound in September.
Affected by the Federal Reserve's basic determination to cut interest rates in September, market risk appetite has returned. The market situation in the second half of 2024 will break the market's inherent cognition, and the performance of altcoins will be significantly better than Bitcoin. The altcoins that everyone has been calling for may really be here this time.
In the early stages of the copycat season, we don’t need to pay too much attention to narratives and sectors. We only need to look for targets based on the principle of oversold + high liquidity, and then hold on to them until the news of a rate cut comes out.
Upcoming events in the market:
1. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at 00:30 am on July 16.
2. U.S. retail sales data on July 17, related to expectations of interest rate cuts.
3. The European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision on July 18.
4. Trump spoke at the BTC conference from July 25 to 27.
Today, the European session will fall back to around 59800-60200 to see if the decline has stopped, and then rush to 63800 to obtain liquidity.
The long-term trend still depends on the time node. The probability of a direct V-reversal is low at present. If it rises sharply from 58500 to 66500
But even if you copy the trend, there are 10,000 points from 53K to 63K, and the profit is indeed attractive.
All I can say is that in a bull market cycle, there is no absolute bottom for bottom fishing, only relative buying opportunities. The goal is to make money, not to see who buys at a lower price or holds on to it longer.
Brother Sun bought hundreds of thousands of Ethers at an average price of around 3,000. If you can buy two Ethers at a price below 3,000, your cost will be lower than Brother Sun's. He is not afraid of hundreds of billions, so you don't have to worry about your own pocket money.
