In the past 24 hours, despite the market volatility brought by the release of non-farm payrolls, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be facing a decline in on-chain transaction activity again after a brief period of stability. It is worth noting that every weekend, we have observed some early investors reducing their holdings of BTC on a large scale, and this phenomenon has continued for six weeks. For example, yesterday at a price level of about $25,000, more than 13,000 BTC were transferred; and today, at around $26,000, about 18,000 BTC changed hands. In addition to these large-scale transactions, other early investors seem to have recovered from the previous panic.
The current transactions in the market are mainly made by investors who bought in the past week, and even some investors who faced losses after buying at high prices have begun to reduce the frequency of transactions. The market generally believes that with the release of non-farm data, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September have heated up again, which may mark the end of this round of market panic.
Looking ahead to the next week, we will face a series of important economic data and events, including the New York Fed's inflation expectations, Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual monetary policy summary speech, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectations survey. These events will undoubtedly have a profound impact on market sentiment and investor decisions, especially Thursday's CPI data, whose importance is self-evident. As for Powell's speech, the market may not expect too many new policy trends, but the possibility of a rate cut remains a focus of attention.
Yesterday, the market showed concerns about the price range of $64,000 to $69,000, fearing that this chip-intensive area may see further declines. However, today's situation shows that there are no further signs of collapse in this area, with only about 14,000 BTC flowing out in 24 hours, accounting for about 12% of the total circulation, and the market remains stable for the time being. If next week's CPI, PPI and inflation expectations data perform well, Bitcoin prices are expected to rise back to $60,000 or even higher. However, if the CPI data continues to fluctuate, the market may face uncertainty again.
