From the second half of the year to the end of the year, the market may need to be alert to potential black swan events. Looking ahead to 2025, even if the Fed starts a rate cut cycle, it may still be difficult to reverse the market's downward trend in the early stages. It is not until the second half of the year, especially near the end of the year, that the Fed's expansion of its balance sheet and the implementation of water release will be expected to usher in a real turning point in the market.
This judgment is based on the intertwined influence of multiple key factors: the dust settled on the US election, the clear direction of the Fed's monetary policy, and the trend of US stocks, which will have a profound and complex effect on the global financial market. Looking back at the Fed's strong interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction policies in the past two years, although liquidity seems to be tightened on the surface, there is no lack of fiscal subsidies and other measures to support the interest costs of global funds, which hides the shadow of leverage. The leverage structure of the financial market is often accompanied by inevitable cruelty in its liquidation process.
At the right time, the US economy may face a "sudden" recession, triggering a financial crisis. This scene may repeat history, just like the US stock market from the end of 2007 to 2008, which peaked quickly after a short rise. Then, even the Fed's interest rate cuts throughout the year failed to prevent the market from plummeting by more than 50%, and failed to resist the impact of the financial tsunami. It was not until the beginning of 2009 that the Fed decisively started printing money and implemented unlimited quantitative easing policies, and the capital market was able to restart the upward channel.
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