Interpretation of macro data on July 2: US JOLTs job vacancies in May (forward-looking data of employment data)
US JOLTs job vacancies in May (10,000 people), a survey report on job vacancies and labor mobility in the job market provided by the US Department of Labor.
US JOLTs job vacancies in May (10,000 people), previous value 791.9 (805.9 before correction) expected 791 (expected 786.4 last weekend) announced value 8.14 million people,
This data comes from May, and the job vacancies in May will have a certain impact on the job market in June.
The data shows that the number of job vacancies increased in May, higher than expected and previous values, which means that recruitment activities will increase in the future June, stimulating the labor market to heat up and the unemployment rate to fall. At the same time, the increase in job recruitment also means that the company's benefits are good, the number of recruitment positions has been expanded, and more consumption has been brought in, which will bring certain pressure on inflation control, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar index and US stocks, and bad for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.
The data shows that the layoff rate of private enterprises increased by 0.1% in April and is currently 1.2%, but the recruitment rate increased by 10% and is currently 4%. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployment rate in May is 1.22.
At the same time, it should be noted that the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment rate in May was 1.22, which was the lowest level in the United States before the mask. This means that for every unemployed person, there are 1.22 job vacancies. Although it seems to be surplus, it is the lowest level. Through this data, it can be seen that the US job market is still in a tense state and economic activities are slowing down overall.
The job vacancies data in April were adjusted down by 140,000. Compared with the unemployment rate in May, which rose to 4%, the current job vacancies in May increased by 220,000 compared with April, which may lead to a decline in the unemployment rate and ease the pressure on the job market.
The data has a positive impact on the labor market in the short term. In line with Powell's purification tonight, the labor market remains strong. From this point of view, once the unemployment rate in May is lower than that in May or continues to remain the same, it is not good for the expectation of interest rate cuts.
PS: The picture comes from the official website of the U.S. Department of Labor