This issue is full of useful information, analyzing the possibility of interest rate cuts and how long it will take to happen from a macro perspective.
If you read my post, you will see some of the information I mentioned, the decline in the offshore RMB and exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries. For example, the Japanese yen against the US dollar, which has been making its presence felt, has reached 160. These are the results that the United States wants to see by raising interest rates. When the exchange rate of a country collapses, the US dollar can enter that country for bargain hunting. Now some countries have collapsed and may be experiencing a bottom-fishing bloodbath. This process may take some time, or it may require putting pressure on the local area through the exchange rate. The RMB has also returned to 7.3, and everyone knows what A-shares are like. So our country is also under great pressure, but we have a SASAC. The high-quality state-owned assets cannot be copied away at the bottom, but we can invest in some companies and enterprises to interfere with our economy from the side.
The US interest rate hike means raising loan interest and deposit interest, with a 5% interest rate for demand deposits. Who wouldn't be tempted? Now, the US deposit rate is often less than 5%. This is why it is said that the US interest rate hike will cause the world's US dollars to flow back to the US. However, 77% of US Treasury bonds are currently bought by Americans themselves. China and Saudi Arabia are selling US bonds. China is an exporter and has earned trillions of US dollars in the past three years. In fact, the current situation can still be tolerated from the data point of view. The only thing that is difficult to accept is that the international community is getting rid of its dependence on China's supply chain. This is a fatal blow. There are also many large domestic companies investing overseas. There is a point that everyone ignores. If you want to get rid of your dependence on China, it is impossible not to generate demand. I can achieve my goal by using other countries to produce, but this operation may not be so friendly to the grassroots people. In the short term, it can only be said that it hurts the enemy 800 and hurts myself 1000. Another advantage of this approach is that it enhances the credibility of the RMB. At least in the other country, you can use RMB to do business with these companies and factories, and holding our currency has a certain bottoming ability.
Back to the topic, the Fed's 11 rate hikes in two years have been clearly prevented by us, and it also proves that simply raising interest rates cannot shake our economy. When the United States is in drought, it draws water from other places and then uses the water to exchange for other resources, but now there is China to support some other countries, so sometimes we should not say that we can't even afford to eat and still care about others. You are right to look at it from your perspective, but from a macro perspective, we need to have our own voice. If you want others to dominate the market, the end result will be that you will be raised like a leek. The incompetent thorns will be killed if they jump too lively.
From an economic perspective, the Fed's interest rate hike has achieved part of its purpose. The next few months will be the stage of finishing the results. When it is finished, the interest rate cut will begin. Many people say that the interest rate cut is the beginning of a bull market. I think we should not be too optimistic and not be blinded by temporary good news. We should still look at this kind of information rationally. If you think what I say is right, you can follow me and take a look at some of the spot targets I am chasing in real time.