According to Jin10 data, Barclays economists stated after the release of December inflation data that the Bank of Thailand may cut rates twice this year. As inflation remains within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%, Barclays believes that monetary policy will continue to focus on balancing economic growth and financial stability.
The central bank is unlikely to cut rates too many times and is not likely to lower rates below 1.75% as it tends to preserve policy space and keep rates at a sufficiently high level to prevent the accumulation of financial stability risks. Barclays believes that 1.75% is the terminal rate for this cycle.
The Bank of Thailand emphasizes the growth risks brought by global uncertainty, which may ease once the U.S. trade tariffs become clearer.
