According to Jin10 data, Barclays economists stated after the release of December's inflation data that the Bank of Thailand may cut rates twice this year. As inflation remains within the Bank of Thailand's target range of 1% to 3%, Barclays believes that monetary policy will continue to focus on balancing economic growth and financial stability.
The central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates too many times and is also unlikely to lower rates below 1.75%, as it tends to preserve policy space and keep rates at a sufficiently high level to prevent the accumulation of financial stability risks. Barclays believes that 1.75% is the terminal rate for this cycle.
The Bank of Thailand emphasizes the growth risks posed by global uncertainties, which may ease once U.S. trade tariffs become clearer.
