2024.4.10 Macro Analysis

Good morning, brothers. The current market situation is very clear. In essence, it is a cycle between a sharp drop and a rebound and a sharp drop in economic data. There was a sharp drop before the release of economic data, and then BTC rebounded strongly after the sharp drop. After BTC rebounded strongly, the expectation of economic data release came again, and it began to fall again. The sharp drop and rebound show that the buying power at the support level is still good. Economic data and speeches by Fed officials will lead to a drop. It shows that the market is pessimistic about interest rate cuts again and again.

Last night, Fed voting member Bostic said that he still expects one interest rate cut this year, but does not rule out 0 or 2. What about the three interest rate cuts? Once again, the expectation of interest rate cuts is brought to a freezing point.

If there is a big correction after the data is released at 8:30 tonight, you can choose to buy the bottom. The extreme pessimism is the release of negative news. If the CPI data is good (the probability is only 30%), there will be a big rise.

Another factor in yesterday's round of decline was that more than 10,000 BTC flowed into the exchange. It will take at least two days to digest before challenging the high again. The bull market has lasted for 5 months, and many coins have increased several times. Although BTC will fluctuate upward, we must lower our expectations, follow the trend, survive in the cracks and fluctuations, and seek the next outbreak point. #财经解读 #BTC

Youmi's morning pancake idea is around 70,000. The current pancake has sufficient energy and is in a trend of a second decline. The rebound of pancake is not strong enough to stabilize at the 70,000 mark. In the afternoon, Youmi suggested that pancake can continue to be bearish to around 68,500, and pay attention to the support level of 68,000 below.

Auntie around 2520, target 2450#以太坊ETF通过 #比特币政策 #财经解读

From the four-hour K-line and daily line, both are showing continuous declines, especially the daily line of Bitcoin which has shown a downtrend of six consecutive red candles. Similarly, Ethereum is also experiencing a downtrend with five consecutive red candles. Therefore, our morning strategy remains focused on positioning for a rebound at high levels.

Personal operation suggestions:
Bitcoin: 69000-69500 range Target 67000-67500
Ethereum: 2480-2500 range Target 2380-2400 #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #比特币政策 #财经解读

Last night's forecast went well, students Luodai 800 points #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #财经解读 #财经金融 #币圈段子

Tuesday Afternoon Analysis:

On Tuesday morning, the price once again tested lower, reaching the key support level of 67454. Subsequently, bullish strength gradually emerged, pushing the price to recover slowly and rebound, with the highest level currently reaching 68900.

From the analysis of the current market situation, Bitcoin's daily chart continues to show a downward trend, now forming a pattern of six consecutive red candles, with the price closing below the middle track. On a smaller time frame, the price continues to exhibit a downward adjustment trend. Although there may be repeated upward tests and pullbacks in the short term, it is ultimately expected to see a significant drop in volume, further expanding the downward space.

Tuesday Afternoon Recommendations:
Bitcoin: 68800-69300 target attention 67500
Ethereum: 2440-2430 target 2350-2300#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #财经解读 #币圈段子

Last night, we provided guidance on the direction of doing Dou, and friends successfully secured 1200 points! #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #币圈段子 #财经解读

The newly released US CPI annual rate hit a six-month high, which is bad news. You should consider buying the bottom after it falls.
The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in March was 3.5%, higher than the expected level of 3.4%, the highest level since September 2023! #财经解读 #BTC

According to an in-depth report by the authoritative financial media Wu Shuo Information, the Federal Reserve officially disclosed to the public on July 3 the detailed minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting on June 12. This minute not only reveals the complex considerations of the Federal Reserve in the face of the current global economic situation, but also provides us with important clues about the future direction of monetary policy.
The most striking point in the minutes is that as the US inflation rate continues to be high, far exceeding the Fed's long-term target of 2%, Fed officials are generally satisfied with the current wait-and-see stance. They generally believe that there is not enough confidence to start a rate cut cycle before inflation pressure is effectively alleviated, so as not to further increase the risk of price increases. This position reflects the Fed's firm determination and cautious attitude in dealing with inflation challenges.
However, the minutes also reveal subtle differences within the Fed. Some policymakers put forward a thought-provoking view at last month's meeting that they should pay close attention to signs that the labor market may weaken faster than expected. These policymakers are worried that if economic growth cools too quickly, it may have an adverse impact on the job market and thus affect the broader economic stability. This concern reflects the difficult choice the Fed faces in balancing economic growth and inflation control.
In addition, the minutes also clearly pointed out that the vast majority of participants observed that the growth of economic activity seemed to be gradually slowing down. This observation is not only consistent with the current economic data, but also indicates that the Fed may need to flexibly adjust its monetary policy according to changes in the economic situation. Against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, the Fed needs to weigh various factors more carefully to ensure that the formulation of monetary policy can effectively control inflation and support the continued healthy development of the economy.
#美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期 #财经解读

SOL is moving exactly as we expected and is now ready for the steepest up leg.
I would not be surprised if SOL hits a new all-time high in August.
Everything is ready, let's go! #经济政策 #财经解读 #比特币大会

Important news notification for Bitcoin!

In view of the recent decline in Bitcoin, it can be basically considered that it is not an ideal hedging tool. The rising unemployment rate has led to people losing their jobs and they have to convert to modern currency, which is still untenable!

In the short term, there are factors such as the possibility of lower interest rates, the possibility of Trump's victory in the election, and the potential impact of the Harris government on cryptocurrency policy reform. The market is keenly evaluating the price of Bitcoin!

A few days before the Federal Reserve meeting on Thursday, Bitcoin fell from nearly $70,000, even if policymakers ultimately kept interest rates unchanged. The cryptocurrency market has already factored in the broader market downturn in advance. The current market has entered a risk-averse phase, and funds are looking for a safe haven. As ETFs and the regulatory environment mature, Bitcoin has become more mainstream in this category, but the volatility of tokens indicates that the signal is unreliable.

Overall, the liquidity of hot money in the market is not enough to support a full bull market, but it may be realized after a certain rate cut! 🚀

#比特币 #加密货币 #财经解读

The four-hour trend line has been broken, further confirming the bearish trend in the market. Next, we need to closely monitor the market's subsequent closing situations, especially the height of any rebounds. This will provide us with more accurate trading signals and decision-making basis.

Personal operation suggestion:
Bitcoin: Around 69000-69200, target around 67500.
Ethereum: Around 2470-2490, target around 2400. #财经解读 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC☀

#Bitcoin Digital Currency [Super Topic]#
Every day is reaching new highs! Analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin will soar to $100,000 by the end of the year!

Cryptocurrency prices continued to rise on Thursday, as the Republican Party achieved significant victory in the U.S. elections, with Bitcoin reaching a new high of nearly $77,000. Before the vote, analysts generally expected Bitcoin prices to rise regardless of the election results.
On Thursday afternoon, Bitcoin surged to a new high of $76,943, following a 10% increase on Wednesday, which set the first peak near $76,500. This increase surpassed the cryptocurrency's historical high of $73,798 set on March 14.
Meanwhile, Krug and LMAX predict that following a strong start to the year, Bitcoin will perform “outstandingly” in the fourth quarter, laying the groundwork for a new historical high. Krug pointed out that the next important milestone may be breaking $100,000 before the end of the year.
CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten noted that the U.S. elections are a catalyst for the surge in Bitcoin prices, but this return is diminishing. From November 5, 2012, to November 2013, Bitcoin prices surged approximately 12,000%. After the 2016 election, by December 2017, Bitcoin appreciated about 3,600%. In the 12 months following the 2020 election, Bitcoin rose by 478%.
Continuing the previous trend means that Bitcoin will rise about 47.8% after the election. Van Straten wrote that this implies that by the fourth quarter of 2025, Bitcoin's price will reach around $103,500. #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #币圈段子 #财经解读

99% of those who desire to profit in the cryptocurrency space typically go through three stages:

The first stage is the journey of experience, often resulting in small gains followed by significant losses, or the money earned is completely given back.
The second stage is stabilizing beliefs, achieving small gains, summarizing experiences and lessons after encountering new things, and gradually forming a rhythm that belongs to oneself.
The third stage is the moment that truly has the potential to change one's fate, relying on strategy, timing, discipline, and perhaps a bit of luck, one might be able to earn considerable wealth.
Those who can return with a full load, successfully retire at the first stage are indeed rare; more people deplete their capital and cannot reach the shores of success. It is already remarkable to be able to persist and stay at the 'table.'
In summary, during an uptrend, everything seems beautiful; during a downtrend, everything appears bleak.
Therefore, when information floods in like a tide, one should remain humble and cautious. The more eager one is to operate, the greater the losses tend to be. It is essential to cultivate a good mindset, excellent discernment, and high focus on tasks! #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #币圈段子 #财经解读

11.7 Evening Trend Analysis:
From the current market, the current price has pulled up to the top of 76,000 and then the correction trend is oscillating in the middle and lower tracks. The moving average trend is anxious, and the stability is insufficient after the strong pull-up.

From the four-hour level indicator chart, the operation channel is open, showing an upward trend. The price is testing the weak recovery up and down, and the short-term correction is for better climbing. The goal is still to do a lot around the retracement.

Personal operation suggestions (for reference only)
Big cake: do a lot around 74,400, and the target is around 75,400
Auntie: do a lot around 2780, and the target is around 2840#BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #币圈段子 #财经解读 #币圈行情

November 7 Morning Analysis:
Over the night, as Bitcoin's price once again broke through historical highs, reaching the 76400 level to set a new record. Ethereum followed suit, peaking at around 2840. In the current strong market conditions, we shouldn't predict where the top is; instead, we should go with the trend, buy on dips, and directly accumulate positions, which is currently the best strategy. The market's rhythm is basically in line with our expectations, and it still signals adjustments. We remain optimistic about the explosive potential of Dogecoin after the adjustments are complete. Thursday is still a perfect start.
From the current market perspective, Bitcoin's intraday surge is quite strong, and the midnight price has already broken through the resistance level of 76000. The market price is repeatedly high; while there are pullbacks, they are merely adjustments in the upward process. Do not hastily declare a drop just because the price is high; without clear signals of a trend reversal, we stick to one path: buy on the dips in line with the trend!! Looking at the four-hour chart, a series of consecutive bullish candles has also opened up space above, and short-term Dogecoin trading volume is showing an increase. Currently, it is testing the strong resistance at the high point, and we should steadfastly maintain the Dogecoin trading rhythm, taking advantage of any pullback opportunities to follow in.
Personal trading advice (for reference only):
Bitcoin: 75500-75000 Dogecoin Target focus around 76500
Ethereum: 2810-2790 Dogecoin Target focus around 2900 near #BTC☀ #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #币圈段子 #财经解读