Breaking! Federal Reserve, Major Variables! Musk is Ready to Take Action Against the Federal Reserve!

The highly anticipated Federal Reserve is about to undergo adjustments, with four chairs from the Boston Fed becoming new voting members, while four chairs from the Cleveland Fed will step down.

This could lead to more disagreements within the FOMC, with hawkish and dovish views becoming more opposed.

Musk, as a co-leader of the U.S. 'Department of Government Efficiency', openly stated on social media that 'the Federal Reserve is excessively overstaffed', sparking heated discussions in the market, with many speculating that the department he leads may take action against the Federal Reserve.

This department aims to streamline the federal government size, cut administrative expenses, and has recruited over 100 staff members, preparing to implement bold reform measures including layoffs and the cancellation of certain regulatory policies. Musk even hopes to significantly reduce the number and budget of federal agencies.

At the market level, the current outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts remains the main trading line, but uncertainty is sharply rising for 2025. As investors, we not only need to cope with the possibility of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts but also face potential market turbulence brought by the Trump administration.

In the December policy meeting, as many as 15 Federal Reserve officials believed that inflation faced upward risks, prompting interest rate market traders to quickly adjust their expectations. The latest swap market data shows that traders are underpricing the possibility of rate cuts in the first half of next year, and U.S. Treasury yields have experienced an unusual rise, with the 10-year bond yield rising more than 75 basis points, and the average interest rate on 30-year mortgages increasing instead of decreasing.

Impact on Bitcoin: First, as uncertainty in interest rate policy increases, investors may push up Bitcoin prices due to safe-haven demand; second, the movement of the dollar is influenced by Federal Reserve policies, with the strength or weakness of the dollar inversely affecting Bitcoin prices; third, the market sentiment fluctuations triggered by Musk's remarks may indirectly change investors' attitudes toward Bitcoin, prompting changes in its price and activity.

#美联储会议 #比特币市场波动观察 $BTC

The balance of CEX on-site #BTC has shown a significant rebound after hitting a historical low last week. Recent data shows that the balances and capital flows of various CEX Bitcoin wallets are different, with an outflow state over the past 30 days, while in the short term, the last 7 days have shown a net inflow. The market funds are diverging, with some investors possibly selling at highs and others buying at lows.
Since December 19, the CEX on-site BTC balance has rebounded significantly, which is closely related to the drop in BTC prices following the hawkish interest rate decision on #美联储会议 last week. We speculate that this may be due to leading funds choosing to take profits and reduce holdings at relatively high levels to prevent market uncertainty, causing some selling pressure and leading to a market pullback.
Another piece of data can also help verify this, as the acceleration of BTC selling behavior over the past 30 days indicates that holding BTC is no longer the default behavior for all market participants. The short-term holder supply ratio of #长期持有者 has dropped to 3.78, the lowest level in this cycle, indicating increased trading activity in the market. #短期持有者 is more active, and the market sentiment is complex and changeable, with investors showing divergence regarding the future trend of Bitcoin.

The Fed drama will begin tonight. Can the crypto market remain calm?
QCP Capital's interpretation: Tonight's Fed meeting may usher in the first interest rate cut in 2024 - 25 basis points, plus the final dot plot. Although this finale will not directly shake the crypto market, be careful of large-scale liquidations caused by gap fluctuations!
The technical side is not strong either: the bearish divergence of the BTC daily chart is becoming more and more obvious, and market sentiment is extremely cautious. But don't panic! Even if there is a short-term decline, the potential bull market in 2025 is the ultimate highlight. Especially in the context of Trump's expectations of taking office, this round of shocks is just foreplay, and the main uptrend is still behind.
#加密市场盘整 #圣诞行情预测 #市场全线看牛？ #比特币冲向11万？ #美联储会议

Let’s take a look at the just-concluded monetary policy meeting. What did Fed Chairman Powell focus on?

🔺🔺Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Cutting interest rates prematurely will cause great disruption.
Analysis: The implication is that the expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, but it is not the time yet!

Fed Chairman Powell: But waiting too long could cause unnecessary damage to the economy and labor market.
Fed Chairman Powell: We can and will be cautious about this decision.

Fed Chairman Powell: We don’t need to rush to cut interest rates.

Fed Chairman Powell: We can wait and become more confident before cutting interest rates.

Fed Chairman Powell: Monetary policy is ready to respond to many different data paths.
Fed Chairman Powell: If the data does not match our expectations, we have the ability to respond.

From Powell’s words, it is not difficult to conclude that we still maintain the expectation of interest rate cuts, so it is still a good thing for the encryption market, and the low layout is enough! !

🔺🔺＋riskMatic0001

The big guys are still there, and if you take precautions, you can make huge profits by following the trend!

Well, I am a contract breadwinner, follow me to get more real-time information!

#美联储会议 #BTC
$BTC $ETH $BNB

🔥The probability of 39% is not low. I have said it many times before that when the market is released, the violent bull market will begin!

100X community news:
CME data shows the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March is 39%

On February 2, according to CME Fed Watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 61%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 39%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged through May is 27.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 51%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 21.3%.

#CME #美联储 #美联储会议 #美联储利率 $BTC $SOL #ETH

🤔Then it’s almost time to cut interest rates!

100X community news:
Powell hints FOMC still predicts three rate cuts this year

On February 5, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s interview with “60 Minutes” was broadcast. During the interview, host Pelley asked Powell: In the Federal Reserve’s forecast last December, this year’s interest rate cut would bring interest rates to about 4.6%. Is it still possible? "These forecasts were made in December, these are the individual forecasts of the participants, this was not the committee's plan and we will update them at the March meeting," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. I will say, though, that there's nothing in the interim that would make me think the committee would change their forecasts significantly.
#美联储利率决议 #美联储会议 #美联储降息 $BTC

Important events and data preview this week:

The Fed turns hawkish: Will there be only one interest rate cut this year? ? ?
Powell will join hands with PCE data this Friday

#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #美联储会议

Fed voting committee turns from dove to hawk? Bostic: Expected to cut interest rates only once this year

Although the latest dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows that Fed officials expect to cut interest rates three times this year, the differences of opinion among different officials are very obvious.

On Friday Eastern Time, Bostic, the Federal Reserve's 2024 voting committee and Atlanta Fed President, said that because U.S. inflation has not cooled as fast as expected, his expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year have dropped to one from the previous two.

The time points and some data that need attention in the past week are given as a reference for everyone! !

1. Monday: ① Data: The annualized total number of new home sales in the United States in February and the Dallas Fed business activity index in March; ② Federal Reserve Board Governor Cook delivered a speech: ③ The China Development Forum 2024 annual meeting concluded;

2. Tuesday: ①Data: U.S. city house price index annual rate on January 20 and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in March; ②Boao Forum for Asia 2024 Annual Conference held;

3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventory and EIA crude oil inventory, Australia February CPI, Eurozone March economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index; ② Baidu Intelligent Cloud large model application product launch conference.

4. Thursday: ① Data: UK fourth quarter current account, Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March, Canada’s January GDP, US initial jobless claims in the week to March 23, fourth quarter real GDP annualized quarterly The final value of the rate and the final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index, and the March one-year inflation rate expectation; ② Xiaomi SU7 announced pricing; ③ Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a speech; ④ The Bank of Japan announced the summary of the January monetary policy meeting;

5. Friday: ① Data: Japan’s unemployment rate in February, France’s March CPI, the United States’ February personal expenditure monthly rate and PCE price index, the total number of oil rigs in the week to March 29; ② Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech; ③ Due to Good Friday, markets in the United States, Europe, Canada and other regions are closed for one day. CME's precious metals, U.S. oil, foreign exchange and stock index futures contracts and ICE's Brent oil futures contracts are suspended for the entire day; ④ The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will suspend currency futures and options included in derivatives holiday trading.

6. Saturday: The US CFTC releases its weekly position report.

🤔In my opinion, don't cut it yet. BTC will be halved in April. It doesn't matter if the interest rate is released slowly.

100X community news:

CME data shows that the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in March has dropped to 35.5%

On February 1, according to CME Fed Observation:

The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in March is 64.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 35.5%.

The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged by May is 5.4%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 62.1%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 32.5%.

#美联储降息 #美联储 #美联储会议 #利率 $BTC $SOL $BNB

#美联储会议 What do you think of Mr. Bao's speech tonight?