[A big analysis of the Christmas Bitcoin market! 】There will be an analysis of the Spring Festival later this Christmas. Will Bitcoin bring surprises? In 2023, the price of Bitcoin showed a rapid upward trend, once approaching a high of $45,000. But as the final countdown to the end of the year approaches, will the price of Bitcoin return to the lows of previous years? Let's review the data from 2017 to 2022. During the Christmas period, Bitcoin's price performance mostly showed a downward trend. But in the past Christmas, there was one year when prices actually increased, and that was 2017. So this year, with multiple good news such as the potential approval of spot ETFs, the halving narrative and interest rate cut expectations, investors’ expectations for Bitcoin have reached a new high. So, can Bitcoin reverse its decline at Christmas in 2023 and draw a perfect end to the end of the year? Will the price of Bitcoin be affected by the international political and economic environment this year and bring about special price changes during this festival?
Next, we will sort out the price changes of Bitcoin during the Christmas period in the past six years for you:
2022: During the Christmas period, Bitcoin prices experienced a downward trend, falling by 2.7% throughout the Christmas period. During this period of 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply, disappointing investors.
2021: During the Christmas period, Bitcoin prices once again trended downward, falling 11.9% throughout the Christmas period. The price changes of Bitcoin this year have been particularly outstanding, exceeding most people’s expectations.
2020: During the Christmas period, Bitcoin prices experienced an upward trend, rising by 22.3% throughout the Christmas period. Although the price performance of Bitcoin this year was not as impressive as that of 2017, it still attracted the attention of many investors.
2019: During the Christmas period, Bitcoin prices experienced a downward trend, falling 1.1% over the Christmas period. The price performance of Bitcoin this year is no exception. Although the price fluctuations are not large, the overall price is still in a state of decline.
2018: During the Christmas period, Bitcoin prices once again trended downward, falling 5.3% over the Christmas period. The range of Bitcoin price changes this year is not difficult to understand, because the Bitcoin price has been declining throughout 2018.
2017: During the Christmas period, Bitcoin prices experienced an upward trend, rising 4.1% over the Christmas period. During this year, the price performance of Bitcoin was relatively stable, with little price fluctuation throughout the year.
Bitcoin prices are generally relatively stable during the Chinese New Year because most market participants will be on holiday during this period, so transaction volume will be relatively small and volatility will be small.
Investors are also starting to focus on the outlook for 2024. Especially during the Spring Festival, what will be the price trend of Bitcoin? Can historical data give us some hints?
We started in 2017 and counted the rise and fall of Bitcoin in the seven days before and after the Spring Festival every year. The date of the Spring Festival is determined according to the lunar calendar, so it varies every year.
We use data provided by CoinMarketCap, priced in USD. Here is the result we got:
2023: Up 8.2%
2022: Down 9.7%
2021: Up 6.4%
2020: down 2.3%
2019: up 3.1%
2018: down 15.6%
2017: up 1.7%
From the above data, we can see that there is no obvious pattern in the performance of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival. Sometimes it rises and sometimes falls, and the range of rises and falls is not necessarily large. This may be related to the global and decentralized characteristics of Bitcoin. Investors in different countries and regions may have different holiday habits and emotions, so the demand and supply for Bitcoin will also change. In addition, the price of Bitcoin will also be affected by other factors, such as market sentiment, technological innovation, policy changes, competing currencies, etc.
Therefore, we believe that Bitcoin’s Spring Festival market is not a good predictor and investors should pay more attention to Bitcoin’s long-term value and development trend. In 2024, Bitcoin may face some new opportunities and challenges, such as the approval of spot ETFs in the United States, the Bitcoin halving event, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expectations, etc. These factors may have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Investors should pay close attention to market dynamics, manage risks, and seize opportunities.
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