Solana struggles to maintain momentum ahead of a $263 billion token unlock, triggering market-wide anticipation and cautious investor actions.
The bearish descending triangle pattern signals sustained selling pressure, with key support levels threatened by waning interest in SOL trading.
Analysts suggest Solana's robust ecosystem might offset challenges, but caution remains critical amid uncertainty and technical hurdles.
Solana's price has underperformed in recent weeks, showing significant declines and hesitation at key resistance points. According to cryptocurrency analyst Chris Burniske, this weakness is tied to a token unlock event scheduled for March 1, 2025. Approximately 112 million SOL tokens, valued at $263 billion and comprising 23% of the total supply, will enter circulation during this unlock.
https://twitter.com/cburniske/status/1868156711107997921
The Role of Market Psychology
Token unlocks are critical events in cryptocurrency markets, often prompting fears of oversupply and selling pressure. These concerns can lead to early position adjustments by cautious investors. Burniske points out that market participants have likely priced in the unlock already, contributing to Solana's recent bearish performance.
On the technical front, Solana is trading within a bearish descending triangle, a pattern often associated with continued downward momentum. The price is currently hovering near the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $215, struggling to break above the descending trendline.
Key Levels and Volume Trends
If buyers fail to defend this level, SOL risks further decline toward the 200-day EMA at approximately $194 or lower to the $172 support zone. Additionally, trading volume has decreased, signaling reduced interest or cautious behavior from market participants.
Large token unlocks often correlate with price corrections, as some investors sell their newly available tokens. The current market reaction aligns with this trend, as preemptive actions are evident ahead of the March event.
Despite the bearish sentiment, Burniske remains optimistic about Solana's long-term potential. The blockchain's robust ecosystem and expanding user base could mitigate the impact of the unlock. A recovery might be possible if SOL regains the descending trendline near $225 and builds upward momentum.
