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What you need to know before Fed chairman Powell's speech today
Markets await Fed chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. It is described as âthe most risky speech of the yearâ.
This talk will take place in an environment where concerns that the Fed is late for interest rate cuts are growing and this situation is increasing the pressure on the Fed. According to the Washington Post, Powell will give the riskiest speech of the year.
Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September is no longer a question. What is not known is whether this interest rate reduction will be 25 or 50 basis points. Powell avoided giving important details in his past Jackson Hole speeches. While the Fed president can give messages that an interest rate cut will be made in September, he can stay away from hinting about the size of the cut.
As of today, the markets predict that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 100 basis points by the end of the year. We have three meetings ahead of us, September, November and December. Therefore, in order for the market to be expected, a discount of 50 basis points is required in one of these meetings. Fed officials, on the other hand, have closed the door to this possibility in their speeches so far.
Prior to Powell's speech today, there was a significant development regarding employment data. The Department of Labor announced that the US economy created 818 thousand less jobs than the previously announced data in the 12-month period until March 2024. This downside employment data revision was recorded as the largest downward revision in the last 15 years. It also increased pressure for the Fed to lower interest rates.
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'50 basis points can leave an open door for a discount'
In a report released recently, investment bank Evercore suggested that Powell will give messages that will leave the door open to a 50-point discount.
