The logic of each bull market is different. In the last bull market, SBF and Sanjian Capital pushed the public chain crazily, and made money by mining DeFi at zero cost.

This bull market is brought by ETF. The incremental funds will only stay in the four markets of Big Coin, Auntie, Sol and Meme. Retail investors in the US stock market will not take over VC B. When Auntie rises, some people fantasize about retracing the glory of DeFi, but it may only be in dreams. Retail investors who do not take over VC coins will still buy Meme.

Auntie ETF can make Big Coin and Auntie rise, which will still drive the rise of Meme, but it cannot drive the rise of VC coins, DeFi, L2, etc. Just like Big Coin ETF can only bring the rise of Bitcoin and Meme, but it will not bring the rise of ORDI and Bitcoin L2.
In the past, the bull market meme was not dominant and was ignored by many people. This year, only the meme has continuity. The SHIB that appeared in the last bull market started in the West. The next SHIB in this new bull market will be
#山寨币热点
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准

Three major events in the past two days:

ETH ETF approved, FITS21 passed by the House of Representatives, Congress banned the Fed from issuing central bank digital currency (CBDC)

The significance is extremely far-reaching

It can even be said that the significance of the latter two bills is more far-reaching than the simple approval of ETH ETF

After all, ETH ETF is just a matter of time

FITS21 regulates the coin issuance process and requirements of all projects. With the process, there are ways to comply with or circumvent the process. The season for altcoin issuance is coming. The season for altcoin innovation is coming. The season for web3 innovation is coming.

Congress banned the Fed from issuing CBDC. The original intention of Congress was undoubtedly out of concern about the Fed's excessive issuance, but the role it played was to force the US dollar to embrace web3 with the existing more decentralized channels and existing issuance mechanisms.

This will enhance the ability of web3 issuance channels, empower web3 in disguise, balance decentralized and centralized finance, and also make the US dollar more decentralized.

Only a more decentralized US dollar is a stronger US dollar.

Finally, I would like to say that the government is limiting its own capabilities, and limiting its most important capabilities. This can only happen in a country with a power constraint mechanism.

#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准
#美众议院通过FIT21法案

Let's sort out the situation of ETFs.
Approved 19B-4 of 8 companies including Grayscale, but did not approve S-1s (almost certainly approved, just a matter of time).
S-1s takes 3-5 months, and then trading starts. This time it may be accelerated to approval within a few weeks.
In the next 10 days, the committee can theoretically raise questions (it shouldn't happen, the people in it are in cahoots with each other).
Short-term positives have been fully released in the news on Monday, so today's price reaction is not obvious.
A 10% drop before approval is a leverage kill, just like the flash crash of 59,000 on March 6.
Before the ETF is officially traded, every step of progress will be a small positive, pushing the price up.
After trading starts, there may be a situation where Grayscale dumps the market, because Grayscale and other companies were approved at the same time.
#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准

Three essential elements for a bull market:

Low interest rates, QE money printing, and BTC halving;

Low interest rates + QE money printing are the basic conditions, and BTC production reduction is an opportunity;

Any other good news can only affect the short-term trend and cannot bring incremental funds to the market. It is just a transfer from the left hand to the right hand. Obviously, the current economic environment does not meet the first two basic conditions, and a bull market does not exist. We have to wait for countries to cut interest rates and print money on a large scale.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#BTC走势分析

Edu is a coin that the dealer wants to sell, but there are not many retail investors who buy it. Currently, no one is buying it. Other coins are falling with the market. I am too lazy to buy Edu. I will just buy it. Edu is a coin that the dealer wants to sell, but no one is buying it yet. The dealer can only sell it again to attract retail investors to enter the market and then harvest it. Now there are no retail investors, so I am too lazy to harvest it.

#edu

I guess everyone is waiting and guessing whether#ETHspot ETF will pass.
But whether it passes or not, we have to implement it in the end.

1. Pass. Refer to the situation after $BTC spot ETF passed. First, it quickly inserted a pin upward and then fell back. Then the sentiment gradually cooled down and sold the news. After the correction, it began to rise structurally. Refer to#BTCspot ETF passed 1.11-1.23 and adjusted for 12 days before starting to rise.

2. Not passed. Don't think about it. If it is completely rejected, the market is expected to flash a big negative line.

3. Half of it passed, that is, 19b-4, and the remaining S1/S3 will be announced at an appropriate time. This situation is actually equivalent to passing. After a small upward and downward insertion, under the support of the expectation of passing, ETH will most likely follow the fluctuation of the big cake, but the exchange rate of ETH/BTC will gradually recover and rise, and move out of the bottom-up posture.

Looking back at the history of the past few days, before Eric broke the news in the early morning of May 21 and raised the probability of ETF approval from 25% to 75%, both I and the market basically expected that it would not pass. The reason is also very simple. From the perspective of market sentiment and funds, the issuance of multi-currency and multi-fund products is not supported for the time being. It is generally expected that it will be approved before or after the release of water to absorb liquidity. At the same time, referring to the repeated emotional release and expected hype of the#BTCspot ETF for three months from October to January, such as the fake news event on October 16, the DTCC that flipped pancakes, Wu Jihan's research report, Gary's changing performances, etc., the time for Ethereum's expected hype seems to be too short, the performance is not in place, the foreplay is not enough, and the rhythm is too fast if it is suddenly forced. If it passes like this, we have to guess the intention behind it. Of course, it will not be too late to guess after the news is released.

In summary, my current view is that half of it is passed, and the remaining half will be acted upon when the time is right. Since even the FIT21 bill has been passed, the subsequent Ethereum spot ETF will 100% pass. It is just a matter of choosing the timing node, and continuing to hype expectations to maximize benefits seems to be the best solution.
#以太坊ETF批准预期

Missed Pepe, the next opportunity is Floki
Several key reasons
1. Every time Pepe pulls the price, Floki will follow suit
Pepe has broken through the new high since the first bottom pull
But Floki has not reached a new high yet, and it seems that it will soon break through the key resistance. Once it breaks through, a new high will come
2. Floki just destroyed about 1.5% of the total tokens yesterday, and the amount destroyed is very large
Every time Floki has a major destruction in history, it will be hot
3. The copycat season has come one after another, MEME will always be the best target, and this round of retail investment has stopped buying VC coins
The narrative of value coins themselves is no longer popular, or it can be understood that value coins themselves have no value
If users think you have value, you have value, and if they think you have no value, then you have no value.
So the narrative of MEME is more popular with users
#以太坊ETF批准预期
#山寨币热点

Is macro analysis useful for cryptocurrency trading? Let me share my personal opinion.

Macro analysis is useful, but it is definitely a deviation to only look at macro analysis. Asset prices are determined by multiple factors. Macro analysis plays a role in trends, just like "oscillating rise" and "unilateral rise" are two different things. In the short term, the role of macro is not as good as that of a big KOL. You need to look at the macro, but it is easy to get obsessed with it if you stare at the macro every day.

How to make macro analysis work? My experience is to focus on the key points and the core, and find the strongest attraction at different stages. For example, at present, inflation is high/there are recession expectations/interest rate cut expectations/serious fiscal deficits/cryptocurrency policies, etc. Each factor has an impact on the price of the currency, but the most influential factor at this stage is whether the ETF is passed, followed by the expectation of interest rate cuts. At the end of the year, we should pay attention to the attitude of the new US president towards cryptocurrency, and next year we should pay attention to the recession.

At the end of the macro analysis, we have to output a clear judgment, which can be used to guide your trading. Blind analysis and analysis for the sake of analysis are meaningless. I suggest that you learn macro, and you don’t need to learn obscure economic knowledge, but you need to understand the principles of modern economic operation.

In actual application, macro analysis is only the first link. For example, when macro analysis determines that the next trend is "oscillating upward", we also need to combine multiple factors such as technical aspects/narratives/dog dealers to determine whether trading can be carried out.

Finally, you must fully trust your own judgment. When the market trend is obviously inconsistent with your judgment, don't panic. Check each factor carefully and review it more. Repeatedly understand the influence of macro factors, and over time, macro judgments will become more and more accurate.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#PEPE创历史新高

Let's talk about the recent hot project news.
1. VanEck Ethereum spot ETF has been listed on DTCC;
2. Trump's campaign accepts cryptocurrency donations, including Dogecoin and Shiba Inucoin;
3. Gala Games hackers return $23 million in ETH, and the founder proposes to buy back and destroy $GALA;
4. Ethereum L2 taikoxyz hints at an upcoming airdrop, which should be done by the lrc team; this is the first L2 to be launched on the mainnet, much earlier than $op $arb, but it is only now launching coins;
5. The European Cup in June and the Olympics in July, you can now pay attention to sports and gambling projects, such as $chz $rlb $flow $ern $sh​fl and the like.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#PEPE创历史新高
#Gala遭黑客攻击

Warning: People who are heavily invested in Inscriptions and are trapped should not read this, as it may cause discomfort.
The high position above has been distributed for 4 months, with a triple top structure. After breaking 60, how long has it been fluctuating below? Do not start fantasizing when you are trapped, and brainwash yourself every day, saying that the third wave of Inscriptions is coming. In these waves of market conditions, except for those old cottages that are about to die, the worst performance is Inscriptions. If you insist on this, you will miss the second half of the bull market.

And those stupid Bs who shouted to come quickly are all trapped. Ordi’s trapped people lose at most 50%60%, sats and mice are many times more, and they can never go back. They are still thinking about the third wave of Inscriptions Season 😂, stop loss and buy strong coins in time. Many people understand that there are many trapped kols, tens of thousands of U, hundreds of thousands of U, kols and retail investors, and now there is little money left to cut losses, so their self-anesthetization is a protection mechanism.

#PEPE创历史新高
#以太坊ETF批准预期
#ordi​​​

USDC top 5 liquidity distribution in different public chains:

Ethereum: 25 billion
Base: 2.77 billion
Solana: 2.27 billion
Arbitrum: 1.19 billion
Aavlanche: 656 million

This reflects the choice of American funds. Base is a rising star, with the fastest growth backed by Coinbase. Solana is a US public chain, and its activity and performance are far superior to Ethereum.

Therefore, if you want to focus, in addition to Ethereum, it is enough to focus on Base and Solana.

This is also a confirmation that the memes of these two chains were the most active before.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#PEPE创历史新高

The current market situation is very similar to that of October last year, when Bitcoin was tested first and then launched, followed by altcoins. However, most retail investors are still pessimistic, and trading volume is still sluggish.

Although there is ETH ETF stimulation now, gas is still in the single digits, and the mainstream market is still skeptical about altcoins and VC coins, and the greed index has just returned to April.

After testing the market in October last year, the market trends of 11, 12, 1, and 2 were all good. Now the Ethereum/altcoin market is brewing, and altcoins are ready to move and are testing the market one after another. This wave of market will continue at least until early July.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#BTC突破7万大关

Talk about the recent hot project dynamics
1. Vitalik is praising $ens, saying that it is the most successful non-financial application on Ethereum. $ens has risen as high as 55% from its low point;
2. The positive news of Ethereum ETF directly boosted the leaders of various tracks in the ETH ecosystem, such as $uni up 35%, $rez up 30%, and $ethfi up 25%;
3. $PYTH was unlocked in advance yesterday, resulting in a crazy market crash. The decline from the high point on April 23 reached 50%. After the unlocking was completed, the market rebounded, and the increase from the low point reached 40%. However, even though 150% of the circulating tokens were unlocked yesterday, the circulation rate of pyth is only 30%, and its FDV is still far higher than other oracle projects except link;
4. After writing a critique of VC coins with low circulation and high FDV yesterday, binance started a public recruitment plan for listing coins today. The requirements for recruiting new projects are high-quality projects in various tracks with small and medium market capitalizations, and there are also certain requirements for circulation rates. It seems that Binance really wants to solve the practical problem that retail VCs do not take over each other;
5. $Gala was attacked again. Hackers minted about 5 billion GALA, worth $200 million. This project was stolen in 2022. At that time, someone used a loophole to mint unlimited coins. At that time, $240 million was stolen. It can be seen how much is behind this project. I sincerely recommend that you stay away from such a project that cannot guarantee security.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#山寨币热点

Who are the people who lose money in the cryptocurrency circle?

1. Those who play contracts. Among those who play contracts, less than one thousandth can make stable profits, let alone how much they can earn in the short term, ten times or a hundred times.
I have experienced a hundred times of profit in a period of time with small funds. The problem is that this does not work at all for asset appreciation.
Such people often feel that they do not have much capital and can only rely on contracts, which is often the beginning of losses.
2. People who fantasize about getting rich quickly are easily affected by emotions. Buy when the mood is high and sell when the mood is low. You will find that you have been losing money steadily.
3. People who chase high prices, buy whatever is rising and play whatever is hot. They succeed several times before, but fail to chase high once. If they do not stop loss in time, they will immediately return to the starting line.
4. People who follow the trend, when they see others making money at the first level, they will play, and when they make money at the second level, they will go to the second level. When they hear that airdrops make money, they will go to airdrops again. In the end, they will always be fuel.
5. People who play short-term, the success rate of short-term is one in a million. The shorter the time, the more irregular the price movement.
6. People who are not into technical analysis, at least they will read books and look forward to enlightenment every day. But the success rate is also very low. Technical analysis is just a tool, and it will eventually return to odds and probability.

How can you make money?
The big cycle of Bitcoin combined with the small cycle of altcoins is the way to make money.
The big cycle of Bitcoin is very simple, buy in a bear market and sell in a bull market.
The small cycle of altcoins, most of the time altcoins will follow BTC, but sometimes altcoins will have independent market conditions. Seizing the small cycle of altcoins and making money through high-quality altcoins is also a very good strategy.
It’s just that there are many skills in it, and ordinary people will not learn them easily. If you don’t have that ability, don’t do difficult things.

#BTC突破7万大关
#以太坊ETF批准预期
#ETH

Where will BTC fall to this year?

The higher you fly, the harder you fall. At the beginning of the year, it rose to 70,000, blowing up all the short positions. Then, around 50,000, many people would open long positions. As long as the long-short ratio goes up, it is not impossible to fall to 38,000. This is a long-short game, and there is no value return. Since it fell to below 20,000 last year, it is not ruled out that it will fall to around 20,000. This is completely the exchange killing the long-short ratio. The exchange deleverages and converts the Korean won, Japanese yen, Taiwan dollar, Hong Kong dollar, Vietnamese dong, Thai baht, and RMB into worthless USDT. Finally, the elimination plan is completed. USDT is infinitely issued to return the winning USDT to burn. Leeks keep charging money. Each time USDT is issued, the chips that kill the long-short ratio are increased. You think you are investing in value, but it is just pork on the chopping board. As long as you don’t quit the circle, money will always be just numbers.

If someone says that it falls to 20,000, why don’t you go short? Are you kidding? With the amount of capital you have, it's easy to wash you out. Some people can blow up a hundred million in capital, and still expect to make money from the exchange with your tiny amount of money. Even if it doesn't blow up, you will be worn out by the sideways fluctuations. The K-line of the exchange will have to wash out most people before there will be a big market. It doesn't mean that there will be a big market as soon as you open a contract. This kind of big market 519 312 is hard to come by, and the same goes for the extreme cliff-jumping market like Luna. If you encounter it, you may become financially free in a few hours. In most cases, you will be washed out before there will be a big market. You obviously see the market right, but unfortunately you just don't make money. This is the true portrayal of most people. Many gambling patients have a salary of 4,000 yuan a month, but they still fantasize about becoming a cool mat, changing their lives, buying a Lamborghini and living in a sea view house, and constantly floating in the currency circle. Today you earn 3,000U and tomorrow you earn 500U. In fact, this is meaningless and can't bring any benefits to your life. It will only increase troubles and make you become a lonely patient. Every day, you look at the K-line like a stupid dog, with a bad temper. You are only one certificate away from a mental patient. Xiaoxia has 10 million and he knows that he will lose it sooner or later in the currency circle. This old guy has 300,000 pocket money in his hand and can play for half a year. He is too lazy to play in the currency circle every day. It's okay to play occasionally, but he will lose it sooner or later. Especially with a salary of a few thousand yuan a month, he thinks that earning 50U today is better than going to work. This kind of thinking will always be circulated. As long as the currency circle does not retreat, you will always be a slave. It's not scary to be a licking dog. What's scary is that the licking dog has ambitions and ideals.

The salary of several thousand yuan is gone once it is gone. The most terrible thing is to take out loans, borrow money, mortgage cars and houses to play contracts and spot trading. You take such a big risk and fight with your back to the water. Do you think you will succeed? Come on, there are people who win the lottery every day. Has anyone around you ever won it? This is a probability problem. The probability of your principal returning to zero is 95%. The 0.5% cannot be denied that you will have bad luck, but as long as you don't quit the circle, it will still return to zero. Some people say that spot trading is very stable and stable and happy. When most people know that spot trading is very stable, its profits will be compressed again. In the past, a copycat currency did have a tenfold increase in a few weeks. At present, when contract users begin to switch to spot players, the market's profits will be compressed again and again until there is only a 2-3 times increase. In the past few months from October 2023 to March 2024, there were many local dogs in the Solana network that increased by 10,000 times. I have also tasted the sweetness, but unfortunately the ending is still zero. As the saying goes, there is no process in the gambling market, only the ending, that is, losing everything.

In addition, the whole world knows that the virtual currency market can be used to launder money, so you don’t know how many waves of OTC market makers die in a month. The market makers I have traded with are basically black. The trading cards, treasures, and letters are all frozen. They will not be unfrozen for at least half a year. In such a high-paying industry, OTC is depressed by taking the risk of selling XX to make money. This is not 5 years ago. At that time, the highest monthly income of market makers was one million. Even market makers had difficulty in making profits. You gamblers are still fantasizing about the happiness of stable spot. It is better to eat, drink and have fun with money than to lose money in the currency circle.

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#BTC突破7万大关
#BTC