Bullish $DOGE , the general bearishness of the market may be an illusion

Recently, many people have actively shorted $DOGE , thinking that this is the peak, but I have a different view. When the market unanimously believes that a certain target has reached its peak, it often does not really reach its peak.

Trading view:

Multiple potential catalysts
Trump returns to the presidency: If Trump is elected, he and Musk may vigorously promote cryptocurrencies and promote them through the "Government Efficiency Department".

Dogecoin ETF: I predict that there will be a Dogecoin ETF launched next year, further promoting the market demand for DOGE.

Impact of retail investors returning: When Bitcoin breaks through new highs and news of Trump's strong support for cryptocurrencies begins to spread, retail investors will return to the market, and DOGE will be their first choice.

Correlation between market sentiment and BTC performance
Although BTC's dominance continues to rise, DOGE has remained strong and even set a new cycle high. Once BTC.D peaks, DOGE's performance may be even stronger.

The "muscle memory" effect of retail investors
Looking back at the frenzy of 2021, when retail investors rush into the market again, the first target they think of may still be DOGE.
In short, there is no reason to be bearish on DOGE at present. The general bearish sentiment in the market makes me more confident to be bullish.
$PNUT

#PNUT走高

Let's review the top meme tokens and see what you can buy

We review the meme coin projects with the leading market value:

Dogecoin ($DOGE ): The originator of meme coins, using PoW mining, has long occupied the leading position in meme due to its purity and frequent support from Musk.

Shiba Inu ($SHIB): As a product of the same cycle as $DOGE , it has its own imitation plate attributes and is also a dog image, so it ranks second in meme.

Floki ($FLOKI): Named after Musk's pet dog, the narrative associated with Elon Musk strengthens its influence.

Goat ($GOAT): The first meme coin recognized by AI agents, with the pioneering significance of "meme + AI", bringing a unique narrative.

Neiro ($NEIRO): Dogecoin's "second dog" setting, with a simple and clear narrative, meets the market's demand for "animal meme coins".

PEPE: The widely circulated emoticon package last year, the representative of the attention economy, the meme coin that conforms to the new narrative, has become mainstream.

BRETT: The work of the artist PEPE, mainly blue-toned Base chain, the narrative is weak, but it has been pushed to the top under strong control.

WIF and POPCAT: The two leading meme coins on the Solana chain, one cat and one dog, take the cute route. However, due to the lack of native attention at the beginning, some markets found it difficult to understand their narrative.

NOT: It is considered a VC coin, lacking the essence of meme, and wearing the skin of meme.

Peanut ($PNUT ): It has become a new star in the meme market in just two weeks. Its narrative is closely linked to the US election and has received high attention from the Republican Party. As the first Binance spot animal coin that is not a cat or dog, it meets all the elements of a high-quality meme coin, and the narrative is simple, clear and persuasive.

Peanut is gradually becoming a legendary IP of historical level, and we are witnessing the writing of this history. The rise of crypto and meme culture are quietly leveraging everything, turning people from cold-eyed bystanders into witnesses who care about the historical process.

The main line of the current market has been clarified, and $DOGE and $PNUT are expected to start the "spiral upward" mode:

DOGE: As the leader and the largest meme coin in terms of market value, $DOGE plays the role of opening up the meme market space, and may take the lead in launching the DOGE ETF and continue to lead.

PNUT: With higher cultural and political value, it is expected to follow closely and become the next $SHIB, with huge potential.

For $PNUT , the current circulation is still small, so it is recommended to cherish the opportunity to obtain chips.

#PNUT走高

The "truth" of on-chain transactions and the real gameplay of the Big Golden Dog

On-chain players must be clear about one thing: the top development team (dev) will never let you easily make a lot of money in the inner market.

My words are not directed at anyone, but I hope everyone will take the following as the truth - this is the conclusion I came to after in-depth communication with the dev.

Trading point of view:
The operation of high-level dev:
The top dev who can make "Golden Dog" will always track the cost price and selling behavior of each buying address. Even if you get a little cheap chips in the inner market, it is difficult to lock in big profits, because the dev will make it difficult for you to hold for a long time through operation.

The actual situation of the inner market:
If you hear someone claim that they have taken 5% of the chips in the inner market and made a lot of money, most of the time it is to attract attention. Dev usually does not let this happen easily, because once too many people hold the chips in the inner market, their operation will also be difficult to maintain.

Choose the entry point carefully:
It is recommended that you chase the large orders of the Golden Dog project within the range of 500k-1M, rather than trying to get low-priced chips in the inner market, to avoid being misled by the high risk and complex operations of the inner market.

Remember, anyone who calls you in the inner market is either a group member who wants you to help support the price, or the dev wants you to help attract more funds. After understanding this logic, calmly choose the operation strategy that suits you.

$ACT $PNUT

Analysis of the increase and sustainability of the Bitcoin bull market

From the current increase of Bitcoin ($BTC ), although there are signs of a bull market, the sustainability is still not enough to confirm the arrival of the bull market.

Looking back at historical trends: After breaking through the previous high, the Bitcoin bull market in 2021 rose for 42 consecutive days, and continued to rise for 98 days after the first retracement before reaching a high of $64,895. At present, the rise in 2024 has just broken through the previous high for 7 days, and has not yet fully demonstrated its sustainability.

Waiting for the best entry opportunity: A real bull market requires time and sufficient sustainability. Investors should be patient and wait for prices to retreat to the key EMA moving average support level, which is an ideal opportunity to build a position with a higher profit-loss ratio. Although small opportunities continue to emerge, such as yesterday's intraday volatility of Bitcoin exceeding 10%, big opportunities need to wait for the market to retreat to the key support position.

Mental management: In a bull market, rushing to "grab a handful" can easily lead to greater losses. Don’t blindly chase high prices due to FOMO (fear of missing out), the market will constantly create new entry opportunities.

Note $$ACT, $GOAT may have reached a peak area!

Current observation: $GOAT has already entered a high position, with a market capitalization of 800 million USD. Retail investors are gathering, and funds and attention may be drawn away by $ACT in the future.

Opinion:
ACT Advantage: ACT has launched on top exchanges, attracting funds and sentiment influx. Due to lighter retail involvement, it offers better value for money and has significant upside potential.

GOAT Risk: GOAT's market capitalization is already high; without further liquidity support, it may be difficult to maintain the current high position, posing a risk of decline. Signs of on-chain whales reducing their holdings are also worth noting, indicating that market confidence may be wavering.

Strategy Suggestion: For GOAT, it is advisable to remain cautious in the market capitalization range of 800 to 1 billion USD. ACT is expected to welcome short-term upward opportunities due to support from top exchanges, and its trading trends should be monitored.

How long will the bull market last? Personal thoughts, please don't attack

Many people, including myself, have speculated whether the current $BTC trend is similar to the situation in June 2021—when the price broke through historical highs after several months of consolidation. If so, there might be about 4-5 months of upward movement left.

However, I believe this market may last longer than in 2021 for the following reasons:

1. Longer consolidation period: This consolidation period has lasted about 250 days, far exceeding that of 2021.

2. Strong rally after a long consolidation: Generally, after a longer consolidation or base formation, the subsequent rise tends to be stronger.

3. Different market structure: This time, there are ETFs and a large influx of capital, which is quite different from the market conditions in 2021.

4. Not yet at the initial rally phase similar to the winter of 2020: Although I hope so, I don't think our current market is in a zone similar to the end of 2020 when BTC just started to rise, as the current BTC levels are relatively higher.

I believe we may have a 4-8 month upward period ahead. I expect BTC to perform stronger (which has already started), BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) to rise further, and then we will welcome the altcoin frenzy. While it won't completely replicate the altcoin season of January 2021, the upcoming period will be very exciting for many.

$DOGE and Other Mainstream Meme Coin Potential Analysis

1. Related to Musk and Trump
Believe in the trend, hold onto the main line.
$DOGE: This round may be stronger than the last! Bullish up to $1, no need for much explanation.
$PNUT: After a washout, it is expected to strengthen, supported by Trump and Musk. It may become a key traffic source in the election, with a high ceiling.
$LUCE: Trump spreads religious gospel, the religious artifact luce may have more interactions.

2. Classic Meme
Includes $SHIB, $PEPE, $BOME, $BONK, etc. Especially $PEPE, which originally hoped for the Trump election narrative, but the current situation is slightly below expectations, as the rise of $DOGE has overshadowed some brilliance. The market cap of classic meme coins has reached a high, bearing significant pressure.

3. Binance Meme
This type specifically refers to meme coins backed by Binance, with rapidly increasing popularity and noticeable wealth effects.
$NEIRO: Market cap of 1 billion, positioned as a new Dogecoin, but has higher popularity in Chinese regions, may be suppressed by $DOGE.
$ACT: AI concept, lower market cap and concentrated chips, may have significant space due to Binance support.

4. On-chain Meme
On-chain leading projects that have not been listed on Binance, but have market caps of 500 million to 1 billion face difficulties in listing on Binance. Small-cap projects are relatively advantageous for retail investors, but the challenges are considerable. It is recommended to pay attention to high liquidity, large memes on Binance or potential projects that have not yet been listed on Binance. When uncertain, hold onto coins for opportunities or choose stable large coins (such as $SOL or BTC).

Trading Viewpoint: Maintain patience and imagination during a bull market, hold quality targets for a few months before assessing results, and avoid swing trading. #牛回速归，晒晒你的持仓？

The underlying logic of position $DOGE

-Elon Musk concept

-Government Efficiency Department (D.O.G.E) narrative

-Potential benefits of Twitter payments

$BONK may open a new round of rising trend

$BONK has just broken through a huge triangular consolidation range that has lasted for nearly a year. If it confirms with a pullback, this is an opportunity worth bold positioning.

At the same time, the following reasons add to the case:
1. Rumors of listing on Robinhood and Webull are approaching, which will unlock liquidity for U.S. retail investors
2. The only memecoin with ETP
3. A new memecoin on Cb
4. Strong buyback/burn pressure from BonkBot
5. USDT trading pair has been launched in Korea, and the Korean Won (KWR) trading pair is about to be launched, which may stimulate enthusiasm in the Korean market

You may soon see "Bonk Guy"'s CX on the timeline again.

$BONK

#山寨季分析

$SCR If it is hyped as a meme, its attention is top-notch.

The concept of Trump, Ethereum-related, and valuable coins are all recent hot spots, and scr has stepped on them.

At the same time, as a new coin of launchpool and fud after going online, it also brought high popularity.

Scr is an embarrassing existence in Trump's target, and there are several key points:

SCR is supported by Polychain, which is also the largest supporter of Trump's WLFI project. Among the three major encrypted funds in the United States, only Polychain clearly supports Trump, and even worked in Mar-a-Lago for a while.

It is estimated that Polychain's holding cost is in the range of US\$700-900 million, and the holding ratio is close to or even exceeds 10%.

The essence of WLFI is to raise campaign funds for Trump. Based on non-public data, in the last 20 days of the campaign, Trump's funds were in crisis, but he could not directly and quickly obtain political funds from Americans, so he opened an overseas fundraising channel through Polychain and SCR, which is a move of "giving charcoal in the snow".

If SCR is an American project, the bonus it gets may be even greater.

#山寨季分析

Is it time to chase the rise or change to ambush the coins that haven't taken off?

Viewpoint: Chase strong leading coins and avoid weak low-position coins.

Reasoning:
1. Emphasize market validation: In a rising market, large funds and institutions tend to push strong leading coins, and their entry validates the potential of these coins. Following these proven leading coins is more prudent than betting on low-position coins that have yet to be validated.

2. Avoid subjective speculation: If retail investors blindly bet on low-position coins based solely on subjective guesses or individual technical signals, they are likely to fall into trading difficulties. Therefore, following strong coins that are recognized by the market can help retail investors avoid detours in trends and achieve higher safety.

3. Recommendation: Choose to follow the trend and chase those leading coins that have been validated by funds and trends, which is far more advantageous than the expectation of a rebound in low-position coins.

#山寨季分析

The New Coins with Unexplored Potential

We can examine various cryptocurrencies from the perspective of categories, which will clarify their positioning and potential trends, especially the relationship between the leaders in each category and the performance of subsequent projects. For example:

Old-school AI Cryptocurrencies: $FET, $Render, $TAO, etc., these are early representatives in the AI field, with relatively mature fundamentals and stable trends, but limited growth, more like the cornerstone of the industry.

Unlaunched New Coins: $REZ, $ZK, $ENA, $IO, $TNSR, $SAGA… these projects have yet to experience widespread market enthusiasm, but they harbor potential.

Currently Sprinting: $GRASS, $COOK, $SWELL, these have gained attention early on and may have a surge, but whether they can stabilize after initial excitement still depends on subsequent market support.

Bitcoin Ecosystem: $STX, $CORE, $BB, $ORDI, $MERL, the Bitcoin ecosystem is becoming increasingly rich, these are extensions of the ecosystem, exploring different landing directions, and have formed a stable style themselves.

Ethereum's “Followers”: $LDO, $ARB, $PEPE, they closely follow the development pace of Ethereum and have a certain correlation, but whether they can continue to lead depends on the overall performance of the Ethereum ecosystem.

DeFi 1.0 Established Projects: $AAVE, $COMP, $MKR, $CRV, their influence in the DeFi field is irreplaceable, despite multiple rounds of volatility, they remain the backbone of the sector.

Typically, each sector will have a “leader,” while other projects follow their pace. Who can drive the sector forward, and who will exert force at a certain moment, all depend on the market environment and the accumulation of the projects themselves.

$BONK Trading View and Reasons

Trading View:
Bullish

Core Reasons:
Trading Platform: The only new memecoin launched on Coinbase Spot, unlocking liquidity in the US market.
ETP: The first memecoin to launch an ETP (even DOGE and SHIB have not done this).
BonkBot Capital Inflow: Significant buying pressure from BonkBot, especially when on-chain trading volume peaks.
South Korean Market: $BONK launched on Upbit, with potential for a 'Korean Premium'.
Robinhood Rumors: Rumors of imminent launch on Robinhood, providing strong upward momentum for $BONK.
Technical Aspects: After a long period of consolidation, it is at a breaking point with significant potential for upward movement.
#山寨季分析

Simplified Version: $SWELL Trading Views and Reasons

View: Bullish

Reasons:
1. ETH is in good condition, especially the performance of ETH beta is outstanding, particularly Eigen as an emerging beta project in the market.

2. The market cap of SWELL is $44 million, with a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $345 million, featuring a token economic model similar to recently listed projects (such as Deep, Carv, Grass).

3. The project supports perpetual contracts, which is beneficial for price increases.

4. The airdrop effect is not good; the airdrop did not sell off as expected, resulting in a low market circulating supply. The airdrop went live 12 hours ago, with minimal market impact.

Under the current market conditions, if $SWELL achieves a 3x increase, it would reach a market cap of $132 million, with an FDV of $1.03 billion.

$SWELL
#Swell

BTC/KRW Hits All-Time High, Focus on $MEW's Potential

Trading Perspective:

1. BTC/KRW has broken its all-time high, attracting widespread attention in the market.
In this context, $MEW, as the only cat-themed token trading in Korean Won (KRW) on Upbit besides Doge and Shib, possesses unique scarcity.

2. $MEW has broken out from a long accumulation period and is currently re-testing historical highs. Although it hasn't experienced the multiple increases seen with other meme coins, it holds potential.

3. In terms of trading volume, $MEW ranks in the top 20 on Upbit and top 8 on Bithumb. If it enters the top 2 again, the expected price could be re-evaluated to $0.02 - $0.03.
#MEW

Overview of the New Main Line: PayFI, AI Agent, Meme

Core Viewpoint: The main lines of the market are gradually becoming clear, expected to unfold around the following three tracks:

1. PayFI - Connecting Real-World Scenarios
The PayFI projects have recently been active, with Stripe's acquisition of Bridge for $11.1 billion being a landmark event. The issuance of PayPal's PYUSD has exceeded $500 million, and Visa and Mastercard are collaborating on supply chain finance solutions, while Osmosis, scrvUSD, and others are exploring Crypto Debit cards.
The crypto payment system addresses the inefficiencies of traditional payment methods, meeting real user demands. PayFI may be the key track for Web3 to achieve widespread adoption.

2. AI Agent - Enhancing On-Chain Experience
Unlike traditional concepts like 'model assetization,' AI Agent offers unique innovations in Crypto, such as AI asset issuance in the $GOAT project, AI ShitPost, and AI Agent DAO.
This is a new field that Web2 cannot accomplish and Web3 cannot achieve alone, currently seen as the most promising combination of AI and Crypto.

3. Meme - On-Chain Casino, Core of the PVP Track
Pump.Fun has opened up the market positioning for Meme. Meme projects acknowledge the PvP characteristics of the Crypto circle, serving as a means of entertainment and gaming. However, the Meme track is not the entirety of the industry; it will revert to a supporting role when more valuable tracks emerge.
In the future, Meme may become a weather vane and an active market signal during bull and bear cycles.

Simplified version: Analysis of the potential and trading perspective of the BTC ecosystem stablecoin lending protocol $SMILE

Project Background: $SMILE is a stablecoin lending protocol based on Bitcoin, similar to the 'Asian version of MakerDAO,' now launched on Bitget, coinciding with Bitcoin hitting a new historical high.

Market Timing: Trump's election brought bullish sentiment to the market, and DeFi projects also saw a general rise.

Project Features: $SMILE is an Asian project with a total supply of 210 million, a circulating market value of about 12 million USD, and an FDV of approximately 88 million USD.

Bullish Factors: Driven by the BTC ecosystem (especially after BTC ATH), DeFi sector, new cryptocurrency, low FDV, and has not yet attracted widespread market attention.

Potential Risks: Liquidity issues, similar to the challenges faced by most new projects recently.

Investment Strategy: Small position, expecting to hold for the medium term, and sell opportunistically after the BTC ecosystem reflects this upward trend.

$SMILE

#BTC创历史新高

$ENA Single-day Rise of 36% What are the Benefits? No Fluff, No Negativity, Just the Facts!

ENA rose 36% in 24 hours. The coin's low was 0.19, and it is currently quoted at 0.54, doubling in value. However, its previous high was 1.5 USD, and the FDV remains as high as 8.2 billion, with a circulating market cap of 1.5 billion, ranking 63rd in market cap.

As a highly valued VC coin that has been in a downtrend, ENA can be said to be scorned by many. Now, after a strong bottom rebound, does it have the chance to lead VC coins in proving the bearish critics wrong?

Recent favorable points summarized:

1. Catch-up, there’s no reason;
2. BTC is rising, ENA protocol revenue is increasing;
3. Market maker Wintermute proposed that the ENA Foundation distribute part of the protocol revenue to ENA stakers;
4. USDe supply increased from 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion in half a month, stopping the decline and rebounding, with protocol revenue also coming out of the trough;
5. Relevant KOLs are starting to speak positively (I have no vested interest);

$ENA

You can pay attention to TIA

The expected bottom support for $TIA has been solid, and there is hope for further increases in the short term.

Trading Logic:
1. Bottom Confirmation: $TIA recently hit the bottom and is currently showing clear signs of rebound.
2. Technical Signals: Strong momentum from the low point rebound has formed a clear ABC structure correction, accompanied by a significant engulfing volume, which aligns with textbook bullish patterns.