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#BTC#ETH#BNB #SOL
New to the Square, let me introduce myself
A practical player, not a 10uP chart god
Entered the cryptocurrency circle in 2017, the trading type is subjective trading, personal performance is 100,000 to 10 million in 2 years, all real trading platforms can be checked, attached are some profit charts, currently ranked first in the bitFrog (formerly Contract Emperor) contract recommendation list
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Also welcome to follow my same name X (@trader_j888)

Why has ETH been in a long-term slump? Because ETH is currently in a historic transition phase.

One perspective is that we are in a transition phase, where large financial institutions on Wall Street are becoming the new players, gradually taking over the chips from the previous players.

We can also validate this from the data: over the past year, the market share of the top 100 holding addresses has been on the rise, currently reaching 66%, especially after the approval of the ETH ETF, which saw a significant increase.

This indicates that the concentration of ETH is actually getting higher.

The leading addresses have been buying, yet the price of ETH has not risen, what does this mean?

On one hand, it shows that the players are still present and are continuously accumulating; on the other hand, it indicates that there is a lot of turnover in the market, not only are retail investors losing their chips, but also this group of leading addresses is internally exchanging hands, essentially transitioning the players.

It is important to note that ETH and BTC are the only two tokens with an ETF, and ETH has a significant advantage over BTC: staking rewards.

Once the ETF starts offering staking rewards or even re-staking, an annual risk-free return of at least 3% in coin terms is actually very attractive, especially compared to traditional financial products.

This represents the untapped potential of ETH and is a potential major benefit.

Naturally, traditional financial institutions will not miss out on this opportunity and have a strong willingness and motivation to become the new players of ETH.

However, ETH has already been the main narrative through two cycles of bull and bear markets, meaning there are naturally many long-term holders, and the chips are quite dispersed, so the turnover of these chips will require a relatively long time and need sufficient market clearing.

Therefore, to long-term suppress the price of ETH and encourage previous long-term holders to sell their chips, such as by shifting to popular alternatives like SOL, is necessary to concentrate the chips into the hands of the new players.

Only when the new players have accumulated enough chips will there be the motivation to drive up the price of ETH.

This is a deliberate scheme.

So, do not discard the truly valuable chips in your hand, namely BTC and ETH; enduring this long and painful market cleansing is necessary to achieve the long-term gains you truly desire.

#BTC再创新高97k

The previous round saw a group of people become wealthy through defi, and then in November 2020, BTC surged dramatically, sucking blood, and by the end of December, ETH and other Altcoins began to rise together. This lasted until April 2021. BTC peaked a bit earlier than the others.

This round has meme-driven wealth creation for a group of people, and this month BTC is surging dramatically, with expectations that by the end of December, ETH and other Altcoins will all rise, continuing until the end of Q2 2025.

It’s not about the BTC or SOL narrative, it’s not about how hard the Sui and Sol teams are working, nor is it that the ETH track is failing; it’s just that the time hasn’t come yet. What needs to rise will rise; there’s no narrative in this circle, and there’s no real application. The only application is the price stimulating your mindset, a form of physical therapy.

Every round is almost the same.

#非BTC板块市场走势

Let me reiterate why 100,000 for Bitcoin is a psychological threshold. Take a simpler example: if you buy a luxury car worth 500,000, no matter how much you hype it up, no one will believe it's the best SUV under 5 million because it's not a luxury vehicle. However, once the price exceeds 1 million, you have to pay luxury car tax, which legally classifies it as a luxury vehicle. Currently, 100,000 represents a potential consensus for Bitcoin, as it has reached six figures, ETF legalization has occurred, financial attributes have strengthened, and centralized institutions are paying more attention to it.

#BTC再创新高97k

The big pancake is nearly 100,000, yet there’s an odd sense of calm. Having gone through three rounds of bull and bear markets, I understand the reason very well. Most people either miss out or end up with hands full of counterfeit coins that may not even break even. In such a situation, how could one possibly feel happy?

Those like me, who have gone through several cycles, either got washed away by the waves or survived, and those who survive generally do not have faith in counterfeits.

Those who like to play with counterfeits are usually newcomers just entering the field. In fact, I wasn’t always like I am now, enjoying making big pancakes. When I first entered, like most new players, I was keen on playing with counterfeits because at that time, the big pancake was over 10,000, and it was priced in RMB, not USD. I thought it was expensive, and with all my money, I couldn't buy much, so I went to play with counterfeits. Back then, making ten times was too easy; you could just buy blindly. This made me unaware of my true level, and I mistakenly took luck for skill, briefly indulging in an illusion that I owned the world, but soon I lost everything.

In fact, looking back, I’m grateful that I lost it all quickly at that time; otherwise, I would not have been able to reflect on where my problems lay. Moreover, people tend to have path dependence, and I would have strayed further down the wrong path.

Seeing others succeed with counterfeits and meme coins with a hundred or thousand times returns, my situation is actually the real experience of 99.99% of newcomers. If I don’t say it, no one knows; if I say it, those hundred or thousand times stories are much easier to spread and have a greater impact on others. But when you lose, you realize that rather than dreaming of instant wealth with those illusory hundred or thousand times returns, it’s better to realistically aim for three to five times returns. Securing a few successful three to five times returns with high certainty is far easier to realize than the lottery-like probabilities of hundred or thousand times returns, which is called slow is fast.

Remember one thing: all counterfeits are the same, only speculative value exists. Since it’s speculation, don’t talk about faith; only act when the high odds opportunities arise. Being able to ride even one round of a bull market is already impressive. Never think about accompanying counterfeits through the bull and bear markets; apart from the big pancake, who knows if you will still see the counterfeits you once believed in during the next bull market.

The cryptocurrency world has long been a relatively closed and independent circle, where funds only flow within this closed circle, leading to a general rise and rotation of sectors.

However, since Wall Street institutions entered the market, Bitcoin has gradually ceased to belong to the cryptocurrency world. From this point on, buying/speculating on Bitcoin does not require entering the so-called "circle."

What does it mean to understand this sentence?

When we say Bitcoin does not belong to the cryptocurrency world, it means that Bitcoin is no longer driven by funds entering the cryptocurrency space, but rather by institutional funds from the U.S. stock market.

Wall Street institutions have kept incremental funds outside the circle, preventing them from flowing into it, while the original funds inside the circle can only drive a bit of local opportunities, such as meme coins.

Since the funds haven't entered the circle, Bitcoin naturally cannot drive the overall market. If Bitcoin falls, the funds will not flow into Ethereum or altcoins because those funds driving Bitcoin's rise are simply not in the circle.

Moreover, once Bitcoin starts to plummet, Ethereum and altcoins will bleed profusely and may go to zero.

Everyone is looking forward to the funds returning to the mainnet ETH. After experiencing the SOL chain for a week, I no longer have any illusions. Let me analyze it objectively.

First of all, the gas fees on the ETH chain are too high; a single transaction fee can reach tens of dollars, which is extremely unfair. At the bottom, there are either bundling or tax farmers. For a pot of tax farmers with dozens of E, there are no players to counter them (those who don't counter are mainly old degen players because they can make money and also KOLs). There are also rug pulls and other issues, which are extremely unfriendly to newcomers. Currently, most players on the mainnet are old players, and there is simply no room for new players. It's all old players engaging in PVP to extract value from the existing funds, and with the ETH price continuously sluggish, SOL is very smooth. The transaction fees are low, and there are no large-scale conspiracy groups, KOLs, or extremely annoying tax farmers. Everyone is voluntarily building, slowly covering one point after another. Although there is also PVP, it is more playable and easier to attract newcomers. Moreover, the price of SOL continues to rise.

This round of bull market is an unprecedented prosperity brought by Trump + Musk + memes. If you do not embrace SOL and do not play in places where hot money breeds, then you will still fail in this round. Previously, I resisted SOL because I hadn't played deeply. Now, I don't want to return to ETH trading at all. A group of disgusting tax farmers, disgusting conspiracy groups, it is really very, very nauseating (and there are a bunch of people advocating for tax farmers + bundling. Most of these people are KOLs, some low-level KOLs, which are not beneficial to the project and ecological development. They only care about making money for themselves. A single rotten apple spoils the whole barrel.)
#BTC何时突破10万？

The holders of altcoins may now have the biggest thought of
Please, Bitcoin, don't reach a new high
Every time there is a new high, altcoins basically do not rise
But every time there is a new high and then a drop, altcoins basically crash
After a few more new highs, altcoins will be worth zero

#比特币ETF期权上线

The entire industry has a fragmented madness, VCs are lying flat/abstract narratives, communities are speculating on memes, exchanges are anxiously drinking poison to quench their thirst, institutions only buy BTC, mainstream chains continue to be obsessed with infrastructure, or just shout slogans about applications without any output. Everyone is playing their own game, without interaction.

#MEME趋势风向

BTC holds value storage
ETH holds DEFI, NFT
SOL holds Meme
TRX holds USDT
DOGE holds Musk
BNB holds Binance
XRP holds SEC
ADA holds Foundation
SHIB holds the past
AVAX holds banks
TON holds Telegram
SUI holds new chain
BCH holds fork

What do you hold?

#MEME趋势风向

Real-time challenge from 3 million to 10 million
(The screenshot is a third-party real-time software, the data is guaranteed to be public and true)

Day 70
Initial capital 3 million, current capital 835 million
Today's thoughts: Today's happiness is given by ADA!

#BTC何时突破10万？

Whether PNUT continues to rise may depend on whether Musk calls out or not, and whether Musk calls out will depend on whether Trump needs it. Because the incident of the squirrel being captured and euthanized is a sudden political event at the end of the election, it can be used for a long time to continuously attack the Democratic Party and serve as a weapon to nail the Democratic Party to the pillar of shame and trample it. Therefore, if Trump's administration proceeds smoothly, the Republican Party has a significant advantage and feels secure and confident, and if the Democratic Party does not engage in petty tricks to provoke, the two parties will coexist peacefully, then the squirrel incident will be downplayed. However, if the Democratic Party continues to plot behind the scenes, the squirrel incident will be brought up from time to time. Especially when support for Trump is needed in public opinion, it may be used to promote PNUT and enhance its presence. Analyzing purely from a political logic perspective, PNUT can be considered as having carved out its own track independent of ordinary zoo tokens, but this track is too sensitive, and feeling like being used as a pawn by others shouldn't feel too good.

#DeSci热度上涨

Can SOL reach a new high in this bull market? To put it simply, it depends on whether it has the real substance to support it. People generally mention the relationship between public chain coins' market value, security, and asset capacity. This line of thinking is not wrong, but don't think too simplistically. Ultimately, it still depends on whether the capital influx is strong enough, whether the ecosystem is robust enough, and whether market sentiment is hot.

Now, let's talk about the debate between old and new investors. The old investors' argument that 'ETH's 300 billion market cap is too large to rise' sounds somewhat reasonable, as it is indeed challenging to leverage such a large market. As for SOL, wanting to break through a hundred billion is not something that can be achieved just by shouting a few slogans; it lacks a decent catalyst. As for the new investors saying things like 'ETH is ignored by everyone, SOL will definitely surpass ETH'? This sounds great, but the reality might be a bit harsh. The capital, developer resources, and ecological status of ETH are not something SOL can catch up to in the short term.

So, who to listen to? Don't fully trust anyone; the market will ultimately provide the answer.

#比特币ETF期权上线
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The Redemption Attempt of VC Coins

Meme Coins 🆚 VC Coins
The current main surge in the market is meme coins, and VC coins are hard to see the wealth effect.
Behind VC coins, the corresponding financing valuations range from 10M to 100M.
Meme coins start at 5K, and even if they briefly rise to 50M, they have given retail investors the opportunity to get in along the way. This is far more acceptable than starting at 50M.
New things force old powers to make changes

1. Most people just want a fair chance, a fair opportunity to buy in.
In the past, everyone had no choice but to buy VC coins at high prices, which later evolved into a situation where VC coins were not being taken up by anyone.

2. Now, with the emergence of pumpdotfun, VC coins are forced to make changes.
Just like workers were previously exploited by their bosses, because there was an abundance of labor, if you didn't work, there were plenty of others who would.
Now retail investors can stand tall and say, if you don't change, we won't buy. If you don't change, there are plenty of meme options to choose from.

3. Now the traffic and attention of retail investors have been siphoned off by memes,
The capital, connections, and knowledge of VCs are no longer as scarce as before,
Meme conspiracy groups have become the new elite, how should the previous VC coins break the deadlock?
In the face of this market, what changes do VC coins need to make? Each team needs to propose its own solution.
After all, publicly financed teams need to account to their investors and also need to account to their own network of relationships.
For VC coins, change requires opportunities and costs, and to make changes, one needs to persuade investors.
Who will be the first team to make changes?
The principle of promoting the new over the old also applies to VC coins.
#市场围绕90K

The most taboo thing in a bull market is to replace the stagnant varieties in your hands with the ones that have already risen sharply, because the rhythm of the rise of each variety is different. When it explodes, it only takes a few days to rise a lot. Chasing the popular varieties often leads to picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons. For example, in the context of a bull market, the high-quality A you bought did not rise, but B rose by 80% recently. You bought and sold A to buy B. One month later, A soared by 200% in two days, while B stagnated. At this time, it is even more painful...

#比特币ETF期权上线

A few things happened last night. Chuanzi met with the founder of Coinbase, seemingly to seek advice on the new SEC chairman; Gary Gensler's resignation is a done deal.

Secondly, Chuanzi consulted with the CEO of BlackRock regarding the new Treasury Secretary's candidate. Considering that BlackRock is currently the largest player in crypto, this is also a positive sign.

Thirdly, Chuanzi's company DJT has begun in-depth negotiations to acquire the crypto platform BAKKT. These events are enough to show that Chuanzi is fully supporting crypto and is about to fulfill his promises. Even for Musk, Chuanzi has raised the priority of relaxing restrictions on autonomous vehicles, leading to a surge in Tesla's stock. For the first time, Musk admitted on social media that he holds a large amount of $doge, and SpaceX holds a significant amount of Bitcoin. In the past, Musk never admitted to holding any, but this time he has revealed his cards, indicating he feels confident. In the future, crypto regulation in the U.S. should get on the right track, with absolutely lenient regulatory policies.

Additionally, yesterday more sovereign nations and institutions began to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, including the Polish government and the U.S. listed company Genius, which reserves Bitcoin. The U.S. listed company Cosmos Health reserves Bitcoin and Ethereum. The founder of MicroStrategy mentioned in a speech that strategic reserve of Bitcoin will be the greatest trade of the 21st century. CZ subsequently stated that the competition for strategic reserves has begun, and no one wants to be the last one. Thus, in the future, whether it is a sovereign nation or an institution, the distinction can be made simply by judging if they have reserves of Bitcoin. Those without reserves are worthless.

#市场围绕90K

Real Trading Challenge from 3 million to 10 million
(Screenshots are from third-party real trading software, data is guaranteed to be publicly true)

Day Sixty-Nine
Initial capital 3 million, current capital 8.55 million
Today's thoughts: This month's market is bullish, hope next month's market is even more bullish! Let's all make money together!
#币安矿池FB联合挖矿

Let's talk about some recent events in the neighboring Ethereum.

1. The great god Chris, who once bought SOL at 8 dollars and continuously supported Solana, started to support Ethereum yesterday.

2. Last week, the upgrade proposal from foundation member Justin received significant community support and is hailed as Ethereum 3.0.

3. CZ's first offline learning event after his release from prison is Vitalik's event, which supports Desci, with some major projects on Ethereum.

#币安矿池FB联合挖矿