Trading Diary 10.29

This time BTC broke through 71000

There are many positive factors in this bull market
Besides BTC ETF and the favorable U.S. presidential election

But compared to the liquidity-driven bull market of 2021
I feel it's quite different
First, the extent of interest rate cuts

The actual inflow of funds is not much
It might take a drop to around 1% before a large influx of liquidity arrives

The reason it has risen to this point, I think, may involve many factors

In addition to the U.S. presidential election and BTC ETF mentioned above
Yen borrowing and arbitrage traders are also a significant factor

Interest rate cuts are said to stimulate capital inflow
But to be honest, it just provided a clear stance

The real capital inflow driving this surge
Might be prompted by the election

Trump has participated in BTC conferences
And even said BTC to the moon

Now that Trump's chances of winning have significantly increased
We can also expect favorable conditions for BTC

The price of coins, similar to stock prices, tends to react in advance
I need to guard against a collapse after the presidential election

This round is unlike the liquidity-driven bull market because there is no large capital influx
But the election is a variable that might genuinely attract large capital inflow

After all, the attitude of the U.S.
Is also the attitude that most countries in the world refer to

If BTC and crypto start to open up
BTC becomes a reserve asset

BTC at least 100,000 USD

But my thoughts are still on the emotional market
It might decline after the election

Or maintain high levels before the election, but whether it can reach 100,000 USD
Still depends on the attitude of the U.S. government after taking office
#BinanceBlockchainWeek #比特币布林带收窄至低水平 #你问我答 #BTC可以站稳7W吗 #BTC触及7W
$BTC $ETH $SOL

The greatest irony of art, memes originate from satire

Everyone must have seen this banana👀

Created by
Mauricio Cattelan

the most important satirical artwork in art history

In November, at Sotheby's auction, the artwork 'Comedian'

And in the meme coin market, there's a token with the same image
called Ban

Key point!!!⬇️
The president of Sotheby's secretly participated in issuing the coin.

Discovered by Chinese crypto community, he directly
deleted the address on Twitter and then burned the coins.🤡

From a skyrocketing market value of 10 million USD in one day
to a statement from the president saying after burning coins, it dropped to a market value of 1 million USD

But as I said
The greatest irony of art, memes originate from satire

Ban started to surge, triggering a satirical narrative

In 18 hours, it skyrocketed from a market value of 1 million USD to 50 million USD

Soaring 50 times!!!!!!!

A great start with twists and turns,
Next, let's see how far the notoriety of the banana can spread.

#你问我答 #BinanceBlockchainWeek #比特币布林带收窄至低水平 #phantom钱包宕机 #BTC触及7W $BTC $ETH $BNB

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#HMSTR开盘 #美国二季度核心PCE符合预期 #加密市场反弹 #sol #土狗🐶

The cycle of capital is still going on
We can only keep creating more narratives that may blow up the dream

Only in this way can we attract more people to come and realize their dreams.
(This is direct selling)
besides

You must have thought of the answer I had in mind
But I would say that the emergence of any new technology

will be oppressed
This is true for the Internet, banknotes, and even new spices

Even some promoters sometimes doubt
But this is a dream. If you dare to dream, life is not just a dream.

This road of investment is really lonely.
Most of the time I am holding on to myself.

This week we will face:

1. Fed meeting minutes – Wednesday
The Fed Minutes are detailed records of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Reflects members' discussions on interest rate decisions, economic assessments and policy outlook. Meeting minutes often provide clues about the future direction of monetary policy, such as whether a rate hike or cut is likely. The market will carefully analyze the wording to speculate on the Fed's future actions, which will have an impact on the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets.

2. Global services PMI data – Thursday
PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is an important indicator of economic activity, and the service PMI particularly reflects the health of the service industry. This index is composed of data from multiple countries and covers business activities, new orders, employment, etc. A value above 50 generally indicates economic expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The global services PMI data helps understand the overall direction of the global economy, especially the speed of recovery of the service industry in the later stages of the epidemic.

3. July Existing Home Sales Data – Thursday
Existing home sales data reflect market conditions for homes that have been built and are being resold. The data shows demand, home price trends and affordability in the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales are an indicator of the health of the economy because it affects not only the construction industry, but also home improvement, appliances, finance, and many other related industries. If existing home sales data is strong, it indicates higher consumer confidence.

4. July new home sales data – Friday
New home sales data focuses on sales of new homes, an important indicator for the construction industry. New home sales can show the vitality of the housing market and reflect changes in homebuyer demand, builders' supply capabilities and the economic environment. Strong new home sales data usually means strong economic growth, while weak data may indicate a slowdown or a lack of consumer confidence.

5. Speech by Fed Chairman Powell-Friday
Powell's speech is an event of great concern to the market because he is the leader of the Federal Reserve and his remarks often have a direct impact on financial markets. , which could trigger stock market volatility, impact bond yields and impact the U.S. dollar.

To sum up, this week will not matter whether it is the stock market or the currency circle.
think. relatively large fluctuations

⬇️👍#美联储何时降息？

When blockchain is integrated into the existing financial system

Money flows faster

Just like water, credit is increasing rapidly and transactions are changing hands faster.

But if the Federal Reserve or the existing system remains unchanged

Will it cause inflation to rise?

have no idea

But what should the financial industry do after efficiency increases?

Those employees may need to be like China's early

The victims of employee layoffs generally...

To be honest, it is difficult to integrate into existing finance and coexist harmoniously.

At this stage, we see two scenarios in the future: explosive growth? Plunge?

One is that the Bank of Japan slowly raises interest rates by 0.01 every time

Institutions and retail investors react when the Fed cuts interest rates

And the economy has not entered a recession and has once again pushed up stock prices and currency prices.

(But bubbles will burst one day)

The other is that the Bank of Japan raises interest rates but the rate rises very quickly.

(Institutions borrow large amounts of yen at cheap interest rates through yen lending)
Go buy assets from Japan or other countries

(Retail investor) Mrs. Watanabe borrowed yen
Arbitrage trade between Japanese yen and Australian dollar

And we put a lot of leverage in the Japanese yen position.
Because they know that the token economics of the yen are an endless cycle
The yen must move quickly to protect the tourism industry

But it also makes exports also face serious problems

After raising interest rates, institutions lowered their leverage

Large amounts of selling in a short period of time affect the market
And generate panic, retail investors sell in large quantities

Stock price plummets

At the same time, it affects the stock markets of various countries and almost all economies.

We must face the consequences for institutional greed

When web3 has no more cash flow and falls into market recession,

fade away slowly

Then we enter the recession cycle and plummet

Interest rates return to 0%...

In a few years, institutional capitalists will have enough rest.

The next cycle begins again...$BTC $ETH $SOL

#TON #加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？ #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #BTC走势分析

Are we about to enter a recession cycle? Why?

After Japan raises interest rates

Buffett’s funds and funds from various institutions
A large part of it is leveraged by borrowing Japanese yen.

So when Buffett sells out Apple, we should think of
In the future, he will definitely deleverage Japan’s funds.

Then slowly convert the assets into cash

To be honest, the bull and bear capitalists play every round
Almost unchanged

I don’t know if $BTC can change the status quo in the future.

But at present, it certainly cannot be

As Buffett de-leverages U.S. institutions

Institutions in the currency circle are also slowly reducing leverage from high-growth areas.

A large amount of leverage reduction in a short period of time will cause asset prices to fall rapidly.
The spread of panic among retail investors may make the situation get out of hand.

The most important thing now is to see the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates
and retail investors’ panic

So will this round of BTC be 80,000?

I find it difficult to have too many people on the bus
There is no way to enter the super cycle

In this round of market ups and downs, prices are going back and forth.

Too many people are buying BTC

At this stage, unless big funds enter the market
Otherwise, it will be difficult to push BTC to new highs

But now the market sentiment is difficult to increase the value of BTC

And as panic among institutions spreads

Will it trigger further recession?

This is what we need to pay attention to

The main concern now is the intensity of interest rate cuts

If there is no big interest rate cut, it will be the day of the plunge.

Why do I say TON has a bright future?

After experiencing $BTC BTC from 66000 to 53000 and then to 56000

In the process of ups and downs!

Although we have Ton that fell with the market, it rebounded quickly.

Why do I say TON has a bright future?

Because in mid-August, the TON Foundation and hackathon activities will begin

The rewards provided by the foundation have allowed TON ecological project parties to

The main topic of the lecture this time is DeFi.

through this news
We can go to more DeFi projects on the Ton chain

Another major focus of TON coin is the meme coin.

Meme coins are flying all over the TON chain recently

But actually everything is just the beginning

Think about the current $SOL and compare it with TON

Coin memes, Dogecoin competition

We can find that there are not many people on the TON chain

The competition is not too fierce

We can try to track smart money

OK finally

I hope everyone can retire in this round😜Goodbye~
#美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #美联储何时降息？ #超级央行周 #Toncoin #TON基金会与HashKey集团建立策略伙伴关系

The bull market is coming! ? Coin prices skyrocketed! Plunge!

2 weeks ago $BTC 56000
I said the BTC market is about to take off, don’t you believe me?
Just buy the expensive one now $BTC

Now more and more mid-term trend investors are involved or observing
It highlights that there are still many funds still waiting to see

Use technical line chart statistics if it rises quickly to 63000-64000
For example, a correction is very likely to occur within a day.

But if it is a stable rise and breaks through on Friday
Then use the line chart to analyze whether Bitcoin is in a perfect mid-term upward trend.

But last week I guessed the wave of $ETH ETF
drive prices up

But in fact, it was not Trump’s shooting that triggered the currency price.
And the forced killing increased Trump’s winning rate! ?

And Trump’s recent speeches have obvious positive signs!

It also makes some investors or institutions
Buy Bitcoin as a safe haven

And driven by the ETF in mid-July,
If the ETF is successfully launched again, the popularity of funds will be comparable to that of BTC ETF
That bull market is coming! ! ! ? ? ?

In fact, it is not important!

Let’s look at the interest rate cut expectations for September in mid-August.
The sales status of Mentougou

Therefore, the currency price is difficult to predict. All we can do is take a look.
Discover it earlier than others and follow the trend

risk warning:
#美国大选如何影响加密产业？
Point 1:
Trump is a short-term event
At this stage, we need to observe whether the technical line pattern presents an intervention range.
If it falls below, we may have to wait for expectations for an interest rate cut in mid-August.

Point 2:
The impact of the high probability of interest rate cut in September on Bitcoin
And the sales situation in Mentougou

#美国证监会批准首批以太币ETF #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？

Be prepared, the market in the next few days will be exciting!

Current market sentiment 29 This looks very scary
Therefore, if I were a banker, I would choose to cooperate with some news at this time to pull the market.

Let market people think that a bull market is coming

7/15 $ETH
ETF hype pull
seems necessary

So the market still needs to be observed

But everything is hard to say, and we can’t say for sure when those compensation payments will be made.
$BCH

#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #德国政府转移比特币 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC下跌分析

Be prepared, the market in the next few days will be exciting!

Current Market Sentiment 29 This looks very scary

Therefore, if I were a banker, I would choose to cooperate with some news at this time to pull the market.

Let market people think that a bull market is coming

7/15 $ETH etf Hype pull plate

seems necessary

But all this is based on 140,000 $BTC without Mt.GOX

So the market still needs to be observed

I feel like it will be at least until the 15th these days.

There shouldn’t be a huge drop

But everything is hard to say, and we can’t say for sure when those compensation payments will be made.
$BCH

#美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #德国政府转移比特币 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划
#美联储何时降息？ #ASI代币合并计划

July 9th! $XAI unlocked nearly 72% of tokens

Now wait for $BTC 56000 to ambush

Remember not to set your stop loss leverage too high

Earning some pocket money is not used to make a comeback 😂💓
#BTC走势分析 #大額代幣解鎖
#美国首次申领失业救济人数超出预期

$ETH $BCH
I don’t know if it will pick up in the short term, but we can see from the chart

If BTC doesn’t get back to 58,000, then everything is lost

The probability is also smaller

At present, everyone in the market should be able to see that it is suitable to go short.

If I were a market maker, I would let the market continue to consolidate before falling.

It has fallen so hard that you can’t stand it and is pulling it up.

In fact, this is from the perspective of a market maker

But don't forget

Recently #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 is about to start

Fortunately, if you lose BTC, the market liquidity is sufficient and you can make up for it.

Some experts predict it will drop to 52,000 or 47,000

1. I think $BTC should still get up

After all, there are still ETFs, believers, institutions, and market makers supporting it.

2. BCH is a bit difficult to support its order book’s liquidity supply of 400,000 U

There are 140,000 tokens to be released, and 23,000 tokens are released every day.

The currency price is at least 10-20% lower

Now I am waiting for a rebound and waiting for BCH to return to 320-350

I'm considering going short

3. Currently there is a variable which is ETHETF on 7/15

But at present, it seems that market makers want to take advantage of Mt. Gox’s large compensation

Selling together with BTC under the panic news caused panic selling

But it’s worth thinking about whether I will buy it back before ethetf.
#德国政府转移比特币 #BTC走势分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

Slow rich and fast rich

The pursuit is essentially different
Systems cannot be the same

Everything must be reversed
Need to blend yin and yang $BTC $ETH
$BCH
#美国6月非农数据高于预期 #德国政府转移比特币 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？ #BTC走势分析

$BTC hit 47,000?

Those old OGs from Mt.Gox will of course smash the market after receiving the compensation.

The original currency price has increased hundreds of times.

Europe, yes, and the German government

So it’s okay~ Don’t be afraid until everyone stops chatting on Twitter

Now the money is in the stock market Cry-p-to narrative or use
It’s not like leaving the circle in 2021

Although BTCETF and interest rate cut expectations have pushed up currency prices

But the amount of large amount unlocked is really scary😂😂🩵

Mt.Gox 140,000 BTC and a large amount of BCH

Get ready, the next few months are going to be exciting!

Recommend 3 cryptocurrencies with hundredfold potential for you!

$BEAMX

A strong ecosystem maintains currency prices
Really undervalued at this stage

It is recommended to buy in batches

Wait for the bull market to take off!

$ENA

After reading the token model, it’s super early LUNA
Coin models don’t have problems during bull markets

Will make a lot of money

But if there is a long-term bear market in the future, it will definitely explode!
So at this stage, I will hold it first.

Token model attracts gamblers

Sell ​​when it becomes a relatively mature model
Will not hold for long term

$PEOPLE

Trump’s election is a must

The will of the people must be increased at least 10 times!
Do not ask! Just ask ALLIN

$PEPE What a fool! It fell again😭😭😭 Those are my top three positions
$BTC I bought it for 72000🤡🥲😭😭😭😭😭
$BEAMX I’m going to fuck you again, what’s the game ecology that you promised!

#非农就业人数高于预期 #TopCoinsJune2024

#72000-->? ? ? ? ? ?

Today is a slump day
Although it is a bit like the time when I fell from 73000$BTC

But there are some differences in nature
The first is the capital pre-payment of $ETH ETF
There will still be some funds flowing into the market

The situation now is a bit like a manufacturer shipping goods
Maybe it's because of some data
Or delayed interest rate cut expectations

All in all, will Bitcoin be falling at this stage?

Fundamentally, the #BTC生態 series is still booming

The news is unpredictable

However, major positive advantages still exist at this stage.

Stay short and long

Also pay attention to BTCETF buying momentum
and general economic changes

But if you are not a short-term person, it’s okay.

After falling, DCA! Get up
I'm sure the bull market is starting

It's mid-term now
Retail investors are also entering the market one after another

At present, we can look at several key pressure levels that we can pay attention to.

From a technical perspective, a break below 67,000 would be a signal to go short again.

If it does not fall below, Bitcoin will take the lead in consolidating

Waiting for the next breakthrough

But the dealer won’t let us guess so easily

They can use news to control the rise and fall

At present, the currency circle is still very emotional.

So think carefully

It’s better to rest at this stage!
Because the neat disk surface is suitable for placing outside the grid

To be honest, I really can’t trade 😂

#非农就业人数高于预期 #山寨季何时到来？ #TopCoinsJune2024 #泰国批准首个比特币现货ETF $BNB