#BTC #热门话题 The market has cooled down this week, the pie has pulled back, and the cows have bowed their heads to graze. We will continue to find coins with 30-50 times the potential in Binance’s bull market. You veterans can take advantage of the pullback to gradually build positions.
Today I will share with you the 8th potential coin on Binance, #Vocel
LOKA VOXEL PIXEL What is the relationship between these three coins?
LOKA VOXEL are all games invested by Binance. Their market capitalization is very small, and the washout is very thorough. VOXEL has a market value of US$30 million. It is a pixel game similar to PIXEL. There is AXS behind PIXEL, and PIXEL's market value is US$470 million. Many models, land, and PIXEL are heavily copied from VOXEL. So I think VOXEL is a seriously underestimated player.

#热门话题 #HotTrends
What cryptocurrency are you most optimistic about in 2024? #2024

Today I would like to share with fans this bull market, Binance’s eighth coin with 30-100 times potential #rose $ROSE
Those who understand this currency should know that ROSE belongs to privacy. Some people will ask: Guo Lao, rose is privacy, shouldn't it be banned? In fact, rose is about privacy, not a privacy coin, like the dark web sector. It is the privacy of WEB3. In the world of WEB3, users gain control (the project party cannot delete me, my data is mine, I can rent it to others, or sell the data to others.)

#xai #BTC $XAI Today we will talk about the situation of Binance’s No. 6 30-100 times potential coin XAI. What is the difference between XAI as ARB's game platform and magic? We know that both magic and Xai are deployed under arb. The difference between one is An Lushan and the other is a prince. MAGIC has always wanted to publish the chain by itself and do it independently. ARB was put under a lot of pressure by the OP. XAI is the game L3 that ARB officially made by itself. Xai is led by the Xai Foundation and launched in partnership with Arbitrum developer Offchain Labs and Web3 game developer Ex Populus. Ex Populus is a Web3 game company that completed US$3 million and US$8.5 million in financing respectively in 2021, with a valuation of US$80 million. It is led by industry veterans from well-known companies such as Pixar, Ubisoft, Activision, and Blizzard. Optimism uses its OP Stack to expand its territory horizontally, and OP focuses on attracting large customers. Arbitrum uses Arbitrum Orbit to start a vertical L3 transformation, focusing on attracting small and medium-sized customers. XAI is an L3 chain built based on Arbitrum Orbit and focused on game scenarios. Transactions on L3 will be settled through Arbitrum L2 (Arbitrum One or Nova). What is the difference between Arbitrum Nitro/One/Nova? Nitro is an upgrade of One's technology stack and is not a network independent of One. After the upgrade, Nitro's full name is still Arbitrum One; while Nova, which was launched in early August last year, is a network independent of One. The difference between One/Nitro and Nova: The core difference is data availability. One's data availability is on the chain (Ethereum main network), and Nova's data availability is off the chain (Data Availability Committee DAC). Because One/Nitro data availability is in Ethernet, which is relatively secure, ARB is specifically used to develop the DEFI class. Nova's data availability is off-chain, and its security is poor. It is mainly used to develop games and social networking. Nova is a general-purpose L2 focused on game scenarios. Logically speaking, it can already meet the needs of game scenarios. Why launch XAI? The reason is simple: compared to the positioning of Nova's game public chain, XAI, as a game-specific L3, can achieve higher Performance, with dedicated compute and storage resources. XAI is more customized and more suitable for the development of the entire chain or AI games. Regarding the discussion on the XAI game node, the people who run the founder node of Gala Games made millions in the past bull market. In the next bull market, the game node that is easier to earn may be XAI.XAI Games Sentry Node: XAI Games is an L3 blockchain that allows independent node operators to run nodes in the cloud, laptop or desktop to ensure the integrity of the state root submitted to the rollup protocol. Sentry Node License Keys: XAI Games is planning to sell 50,000 node key NFTs via a batched Dutch auction. The initial price for 3000 nodes is set at 0.13E, and the current price for layer 9 is 0.4E. The price of Sentry nodes is temporarily pegged to ETH. For those who have relatively large funds, will not use them in the medium to long term, and are familiar with game node deployment, you can try it. OP focuses on horizontal expansion, allowing many projects to generate L2 based on OP. Op Stack makes money through access to its shared sequencer infrastructure; ARB tries to make money through its code base as a proprietary development environment, focusing on customized services. Profit. XAI is precisely the L3 chain that provides this kind of customized services to various game projects. What about the output of uncirculated tokens, i.e. selling pressure? Users of XAI can become nodes by using ordinary computers or servers. The hardware requirements are not high and only require 4GB of memory and 60GB of hard drive. The main cost of becoming a node is a Sentinel License NFT, whose initial price is US$300. The allocation of tokens a node can obtain is dynamic. According to the current number of nodes of 10,000 to 20,000, a node can obtain between 2,000 and 4,000 tokens. . However, the obtained esXAI cannot be sold directly, and there are certain redemption restrictions: the minimum redemption period is 15 days, providing a ratio of 1:0.25 (25%). The intermediate redemption period is 90 days, providing a ratio of 1:0.625 (62.5%). The maximum redemption period is 180 days, offering a 1:1 ratio (100%). The process of exchanging esXAI for XAI also includes an unlocking period, the duration of which is chosen by the user. The exchange ratio increases with the increase of the redemption period: if the selected redemption period is lower than the maximum period (ratio <span the deducted esXAI amount will be destroyed. Nodes become more expensive as they are sold, with a maximum of 50,000 sold. It currently takes more than 4 months to pay back the cost. Summary: XAI is personally made by the ARB project team, mainly to open up the incremental cake of L3 games. We have seen XAI learn from the previous GALA node auction model, but currently there are not many game products and they are a bit thin.Staking will start next week, and V2 will be released in March. It will be relatively strong in the short and medium term, with a trend of going down to 3-5 US dollars. But after this, it will definitely take a while to wash. Considering that the highest market value of GALA in the last bull market was US$5 billion, XAI, with the official support of Binance ARB, the next bull market can be in the range of US$30-50. #内容挖矿 #xai $XAI #bnb

#内容挖矿 #coti #BTC‬ #BNB $COTI In this issue, I would like to share with you COTI, which is also the fifth 100x coin shared on Binance. COTI was originally the crown prince of ADA, focusing on the payment sector, but now the narrative has changed, becoming Ethernet Layer 2, and focusing on providing privacy for Ethernet Layer 2. The black technology of "Garbled Circuits." garbled circuits has attracted market attention. The narrative of this coin has changed a lot. For example, you used to think he was a butcher, but after a year of not seeing it, he started selling porcelain. The change was huge. "Garbled Circuits." should be translated as confusing circuits. Buterin has previously published an article about it. There are many professional terms and it is difficult to understand. Let me give a simple popular description. For example, there are five rich people. They want to know who is the richest, but they don’t want to publicly disclose their wealth. what to do. Multi-party calculations, confusing circuits come into play. The five rich people do not need a third party to be present. They input their wealth numbers into the circuit, which cannot be seen by others, and then the circuit calculates the result. This result is recognized by everyone. It not only realizes the wealth ranking of the five rich people, but also protects the privacy. For example, the wealth of 5 people is 100 200 400 600 800. When input into the circuit, the output result may be 1 4 6 7 10 12. COTI's solution is faster, requires less storage, and has lower latency. The core team of COTI has more than 30 people, who have served in IBM (former research director), Ripple (former CRO), Blackrock (former CIO), and Investec bank (former CEO). The team even has cryptography experts from Israel's elite army intelligence unit, and its chief technology officer, Nir Haloani, has a PhD in mathematics from Israel's top institute. (This may be one of the top teams in Israel.) Summary: COTI is the son of ADA. The team is from Israel like SSV. It was the first to make payments, and later made the second layer of Ethernet. It proactively confuses circuits. This is the first confusing circuit. From a technical point of view, the implementation of blockchain is not inferior to ZK, or even better. It belongs to the new direction of Ethernet Layer 2. At the same time, the market value of Ethernet Layer 2 is very high, and the market value of COTI is relatively small. The Cancun hype is about to begin. Because most people do not understand or misunderstand that it is for payment, COTI can easily become a dark horse in the Cancun sector. It took several times to attract the attention of many KOLs and understand its narrative changes.Therefore, the overall expectation for COTI is about 30 times.

BICO#bico #BTC #eth #bnb $BICO BICO Account Abstract This track. One of the topics Buterin talked about is that account abstraction AA is the key to whether Ethereum can expand the number of users to 1 billion. Account abstraction can make people use WEB3 as smooth and simple as WEB2. OK and many others are developing account abstraction wallets, but what does BICO do? It is the infrastructure for account abstraction. With a potential of 30-50 times, it is the future market and a hot spot in the future. It's a bit troublesome to understand the account abstraction, so I'll make some metaphors. For example, if you normally buy something on WEB3, you have to pay the Ether GAS fee, but if you have never played in the currency circle, you are not familiar with it. So how can account abstraction be done? I buy a coin, but there is no GAS fee. I can ask other people's wallets (friends) to help pay the GAS fee, or some TuGou projects will open a pool. Everyone is welcome to buy TuGou. You can come. If you buy a Tugo, the GAS fee is released. When everyone buys this Tugo, the account abstraction can realize that the project party pays the GAS fee and the user does not spend GAS. Of course, this is only part of the function of account abstraction, and there is also social recovery. For example, if I forget the mnemonic phrase of my wallet, there is definitely nothing I can do. However, the account abstraction wallet has a social recovery function. You can also restore the wallet using your email or asking friends. . There are also merger deals. For example, I originally bought A currency, paid GAS after buying it, then bought B currency, and then paid GAS. I might as well buy A B at the same time and pay less GAS. For example, you bought pork and got change, and then you went to buy vegetables and got change again. If the pork and vegetables belong to the same family, they are counted together. Account abstraction also has many functions, such as placing orders or automatic trading. For example, if I set it in the wallet and the UNI is lower than 10, buy me $100. This was not possible with previous wallets. These are the general functions of account abstraction. The functions of BICO, such as GAS-free transactions, are usually paid for by the project party. Even if you transfer across the chain (the account is abstracted so that you cannot feel the existence of the chain), you can flexibly choose the currency to pay GAS. For example, my wallet does not have ether, but If there is a Tugou, I will use Tugou to pay the gas fee, and then connect it to each chain and layer 2. Core team: Ahmed Al-Balaghi (CEO), Aniket Jindal (COO), Sachin Tomar (CTO), Sachin has a software engineering background Consultant: Sandeep Nailwal (Polygon consultant and COO) In January 2021, Eden Block led the investment Biconomy raised US$1.5 million in financing, Fenbushi Capital, Binance and DACM also participated in the investment. In July 2021, Biconomy received US$9 million in financing. Biconomy has completed a total of US$10.5 million in financing, with investors including Coinbase Ventures, Binance Labs, Fenbushi Capital and Huobi Ventures et al.Binance, Huobi and COINBASE have all invested. The project was established in 2019 and has been committed to developing a technical service platform for developers, providing convenient, efficient and low-cost SDK services to allow 1 billion people to enter blockchain dApps. So far, it has launched a number of services and products, providing cross-chain bridge and cross-chain communication services, account abstraction SDK, etc. There are two types of participants in the account abstraction market: one is smart contract wallets with functions such as social login and recovery, gas abstraction, transaction batching, and integration and aggregation of third-party services (such as legal currency deposits and withdrawals and DeFi protocols). The competition There are many start-up projects, but the solutions are rudimentary; there are too many such smart wallets, there are many projects, it is difficult to choose, and not many people are using them now. The second category of modular providers, except biconomy and stackup, are mostly in their early stages. This type of infrastructure is account abstraction. BICO is an old project. It has been a small leader in this field for 4 years. BICO Account Abstraction The number of monthly users of AA in each chain is increasing very quickly. BICO’s official Twitter also said that every 17 seconds, someone opens an abstract AA account, and now there are almost 600,000, which is a very fast growth rate. After the Ethereum Cancun upgrade was completed in March, the speed and GAS dropped. Buterin will bring ether, upgrade and hype the account abstraction, and then BICO’s main wave will arrive. BICO cooperates with TWT, the largest wallet. BICO is more like an account abstraction infrastructure, or underlying technology. Many DAPPs or wallets are running on it, and you can obtain account abstraction functions. This is a potential stock for the future. He is an important player in our hidden account abstract track. $bico

OCEAN#ocean ocean: Ocean Protocol, a trading market for data and AI. You can understand that the trading market for tokens is UNI, and the trading market for NFT is BLUR. In the future, our AI and DEPIN will generate a large amount of data. For example, if I use AI prompts to generate a video, we want to sell or rent the patient data collected by our DEPIN equipment. We cannot rely on UNI and BULR to solve this problem. So what to rely on? OCEAN. Tokenizing AI and data tells you what OCEAN does, it is a trading venue for AI and data. The date of our second phase of research investment is an upstream and downstream channel provider relationship with each other. Overall, data and AI transactions, which were not a big market in the past, were in high demand. However, with the development of DEPIN and AI, the fundamentals have indeed been greatly improved. OCEAN's official Twitter is quite excited. It calculated by itself that if such trading volume is maintained, the annual trading volume will be 2 billion US dollars. Although compared with UNI and BLUR, it is still too small, but after all, it is a new type of transaction and belongs to the leader in this field. #BTC #bnb #ocean $OCEAN

DATA #BTC #bnb #data $DATA #ETH Data is the oil, source of AI and DEPIN. Similar to the last bull market, THETA solved the problem of video cards and increased by 200 times, and RNDR rendering became the cornerstone of the metaverse and has increased by dozens of times. DATA personally believes that it is the dual hot spot of AI and DEPIN in the next bull market, with a potential of 50-100 times. IOTX is the leader of DEPIN. Its own official Twitter says that DATA is the new oil, mainly because its card position is so good and it is the data front-end for AI, DEPIN, and video. https://twitter.com/iotex_io/status/1760745804782879047DATA is a decentralized network for real-time data, a bit like eDonkey. eDonkey is for distributed downloading of movie files, and DATA is for distributed transmission of data. What is distributed transmission? It's like a piece of data generated from a DEPIN device. If the data is a pie, the transmission can be easily stolen by others. However, if the pie is divided into several parts, starting from different paths, it is spliced ​​into data at the destination, and the data is intercepted in the middle. People see part of the data, but it’s actually useless. DATA is called DEPIN's LINK by foreigners. LINK connects various DEFIs and provides data. DATA connects various DEPIN devices and is a middleware. Looking at it this way, it is very promising. DATA and OCEAN are both data sectors. What is the difference? My personal understanding is this. DATA was used to process and transmit real-time data in the early days. What OCEAN is more about is that the data has been confirmed, and the data is rented and sold in the data market. Belonging to the upstream and downstream of the data generation line, DATA is like helping to raise pigs, and OCEAN is like a butcher shop. At present, you can see that all popular DEPIN projects are cooperating with it. Live or real-time data refers to data that is actionable as soon as the data is collected. The value of almost all data for action or insight declines over time. For some data sets, this storage life is in extremely short intervals - milliseconds and seconds - requiring efficient pipelines to continuously deliver information in the shortest possible intervals (or latency). This is a relatively new capability that already supports several industries: weather forecasting, transaction fraud detection, GPS traffic monitoring, shared services, mechanical systems monitoring, and e-commerce inventory management, all of which rely on near-instantaneous data to operate. . Summary: DATA is an old project with a lot of volume at the bottom. The main reason is that the ecological position is too strong. It is stuck in the ecological key position of DEPIN and AI. The market value is not large, and it has a very large room for improvement.It is one of the few mixed DEPIN and AI tracks.

CELO #celo $CELO $BTC $BNB celo, 30 times potential, the next LUNA, LUNA is from South Korea, CELO is from the United States. In the next bull market, the competition for stablecoins is cruel. Yesterday, USDC announced that it would not be issued on TRX. The Chinese are actually in the stablecoin pie, and Wall Street is ready to grab it. On the one hand, a new stablecoin project has come out, and on the other hand, CELO's active mobile payment and stablecoin are actually favored by Wall Street. The next bull market may be based on the American version of LUNA. . USDT is mainly Asian and European funds, and USDC represents the capital willingness of the United States. Give up TRX and go to CELO immediately. Celo is also favored by Silicon Valley VCs. In April 2019, Celo completed US$30 million in financing, led by cryptocurrency funds a16z and Polychain, and Dragonfly Capital Partners also participated in the financing. Prior to this massive move, Celo had raised $6.4 million. In February this year, Celo once again completed a US$20 million financing with the participation of a16z, bringing the total financing amount to US$65 million. CELO's current market value is US$400 million, and LUNA's highest value in the last bull market was US$60 billion. If LUNA really becomes LUNA, it will be 120 times. But consider that Americans may not put a basket. Therefore, it is appropriate for us to suppress CELO’s target to 30 times. Under pressure, Binance gave up BUSD, and quietly created ETHANA with Xiaohei and American Capital, which will also seize the market in the future. Celo is an open, decentralized platform dedicated to helping everyone with a mobile phone enjoy financial services. The "Celo Alliance" covers nearly 100 individuals, technology companies, and organizations from all over the world. These partners are active on the Celo platform and help Celo grow. Celo is a carbon-neutral blockchain consisting of over 100 validators. In the Celo ecosystem, CELO is the most basic currency and can be used for exchange and democratic elections. The total amount of CELO is fixed, but the value is variable. Through CELO, you can vote for validators and bills to influence the future of the Celo platform. The vision of the project is to establish an open financial system so that people in the world who do not have bank accounts but have smartphones can easily access financial services. CELO's transfer is very interesting. You don't need to know the address of the currency. You can transfer coins just by knowing your mobile phone number. It focuses on mobile WEB3 payment.WeChat and Alipay are WEB2 payments. Like LUNA, the Celo protocol is not only a stablecoin protocol, but also builds an underlying public chain, cultivates and introduces a large number of DeFi projects, provides financial scenarios for its own native stablecoin, and achieves early cold start and expansion of the stablecoin network. . At this point, the positioning and playing methods of Celo and LUNA are very similar, which is reflected in the fact that they do not compete directly with the Ethereum platform public chain, but start from the "decentralized stable currency". This strategic positioning allows project resources to be more concentrated. They have gradually evolved from a simple "decentralized stable currency protocol" to a large-scale financial ecosystem, and their positioning has also shifted from monetary services to an open comprehensive financial platform. The maximum supply is 1,000,000,000 CELO, the circulation rate is 48.74%, the crowdfunding price is $1, and it is currently $0.81. Currently CELO has put forward a new proposal that details the architecture of the Celo blockchain transition from OP Stack to Ethereum L2. Key differences of the proposal include: Byzantine fault-tolerant consensus using a decentralized orderer supported by Celo’s existing validator set, an off-chain data availability layer powered by EigenLayer and EigenDA, and operated by Ethereum node operators, and through Stake ETH for protection. Summary: CELO is the American version of LUNA, supported by USDC and supported by Wall Street and Silicon Valley. It is an important player in the stablecoin market in the future. CELO descended from the public chain and built two layers of ether. There are indeed a lot of signs of building positions at the bottom. From a long-term perspective, we believe that if CELO replicates the peak of LUNA, it will be 120 times. However, considering that LUNA is difficult to reproduce, we expect that 30 times is appropriate for the bull market. #celo #BTC #bnb

Wealth is like a big pool. On the other hand, water is being poured into it, which is your salary savings. On the other side, there is water leakage, which is caused by inflation. The more your salary deposits are, the faster they will leak. In the end, it will be difficult for your wealth to achieve new breakthroughs and growth. The best way is to take out the water and replace it with chickens, and play the game of chicken and egg, and egg and chicken. People are products of the environment, the economic base determines the superstructure, cultural attributes determine the level, and cognition and wealth lead to each other. When the state opens the floodgates and releases money, it will be given priority to financial institutions. People or companies with capital can get priority. The entire wealth distribution is like pouring honey into the pyramid. From the top of the pyramid downward are: financial industry, real estate industry, high-end service industry, high-end manufacturing, low-end service industry, and low-end labor-intensive industry. The flow of water determines that in this world, the return on labor is less than the return on capital. This denies the saying that labor creates wealth. The real situation should be: labor obtains income. Capital creates wealth. It can be simply summarized into three things: money, capital, and labor. The government distributes money to capital, and capital spends money to hire labor to obtain goods. Labor gets a little money from capital to buy goods, and eventually the money returns to capital. The two words "rich" and "poor" reveal the similarities and differences between the rich and the poor. The words "rich" and "poor" are the same, which shows that the house is a pseudo-asset. It is only a necessity for life and is not an asset. (In fact, many young people used to have a pretty good life. I don’t know who invented the idea of ​​going to the city to work, buy a house, and buy a car. Now everyone has nothing.) The rich and poor have three places to go after they get money: saving and consumption. ,invest. Saving and investing are opposites, one option is to put your money in the bank and suffer some small depreciation. One choice is to withstand big openings and closings, ups and downs in the stock market. When there are many depositors, additional currency issuance increases liquidity and harvests depositors. When there are many investors, reducing currency reduces liquidity and harvests investors. People in the middle and lower classes are influenced by consumerism, entertainment, and nipple entertainment. After getting money, they first improve their lives. As a result, the poor have no money and the middle class has no time. The rich use most of their money to purchase assets, even through low-interest loans, and have their own rational consumption methods. People in the middle and lower classes use their excess money for savings. If things go on like this, the Matthew effect appears. Underclass cognition and poverty are cause and effect and entangled with each other, hindering class breakthroughs. People from lower social classes also regard other people's kindness as stupidity and their cleverness as skill. On the contrary, high-level cognition and wealth are intertwined. People cannot make money beyond cognition. When a person's IQ does not match his wealth, the excess will flow back to the market in various forms. This society has 10,000 ways to harvest you until your wealth and knowledge match.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is currently facing massive outflows totaling $594 million. Meanwhile, Grayscale also transferred 9,840 BTC worth $418 million to Coinbase Prime, bringing the total number of transfers since January 12 to 41,478 BTC. This over $1.7 billion operation related to processing redemptions sheds light on the challenges GBTC is currently facing. Historically, GBTC has not sold Bitcoin but redeemed its shares for U.S. dollars, making it a major holder of Bitcoin. However, the approval of spot ETFs prompted investors to withdraw their funds due to the huge annual management fee of 1.5% (significantly higher than competitors). In addition, the disappearance of GBTC’s previous 40% discount caused many investors to withdraw, forcing GBTC to sell BTC to meet redemption requirements. The process is expected to take weeks and is affecting Bitcoin's short-term trends. The reason for Grayscale’s outflow has sparked some speculation, with some blaming the outflow in recent data on delays in the T+1 accounting and settlement process. Others on social media pointed out that Grayscale’s ETF has high fees, specifically its 1.5% expense ratio, making it an expensive spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Cryptocurrency investor Scott Melker echoed similar sentiments, clarifying that Grayscale is not actively selling Bitcoin in the market. Instead, when people sell Grayscale’s GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) shares, Grayscale must sell a corresponding amount of Bitcoin to manage the fund. This is not malicious behavior; this is how ETFs work. How GBTC works If you own 10,000 BTC, you may be thinking about how to perform risk-free arbitrage to minimize risk. Instead of converting BTC into cash and depositing it in a bank to earn interest, those individuals or institutions with large amounts of Bitcoin are more inclined to look for low-risk investment opportunities rather than just pursuing high annualized returns. Grayscale is clearly one of the top players in this space. However, many users in the currency circle know little about Grayscale. They only know that they have been buying Bitcoin and buying it at a higher price than on the exchange. Some may think they are crazy because not only is the purchase price higher, but they never seem to sell. Does this mean they are a bunch of stupid people?In fact, the truth behind it is that Grayscale is a group of masters who make huge wealth through this method and are also controlling the future of the currency circle. Today, I will try to answer these questions in the simplest terms. 1. Who is grayscale? Grayscale Investment Trust was founded by Digital Currency Group in 2013, while DCG is the world’s most powerful currency investment institution, with almost all mainstream currency transactions you are familiar with. All projects are closely related to it. As a subsidiary of DCG, Grayscale manages multiple funds including BTC and ETH. BTC and ETH have passed SEC certification and have become the only choice for legal investment by institutions and retail investors in the US stock market. According to the official second quarter investment report: Grayscale’s cumulative investment in digital currency has reached US$2.6 billion, and the total investment received in the first half of 2020 was US$1.4 billion. An average of US$43.8 million is invested in buying Bitcoin and US$9.4 million in Ethereum every week, with 85% of the funds coming from institutional investors such as hedge funds. Currently, Grayscale is buying Bitcoin at a rate that exceeds the number of newly mined Bitcoins during the same period. The number of investors is also growing rapidly, with growth in the second quarter double that of the first, with new investor inflows reaching $124.1 million, accounting for 57% of the investor base. In short, Grayscale’s increasing Bitcoin buying efforts have outpaced the number of newly mined Bitcoins on the market. This phenomenon is more significant than the "Bitcoin halving" effect. 2. Who is buying? Although Grayscale is a fund company, I prefer to compare it to a special exchange, which may be easier to understand. As a legally established investment company, Grayscale is currently the only company among U.S. pension plans that can purchase Bitcoin. In other words, if institutions want to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum, they must do so through Grayscale. However, on the contrary, when the "exchange" of Grayscale "sells" Bitcoin or Ethereum, it actually goes through two steps: first, it conducts a private placement and opens the subscription for GBTC to qualified institutional investors (you can Think of it as a Bitcoin voucher issued by Grayscale).After institutional investors purchase, there is a six-month lock-in period (previously 12 months) during which they cannot be transferred. In the second step, after the unlocking period is over, institutions can sell GBTC to retail investors in the US stock market, and retail investors in the stock market are responsible for taking over GBTC. Therefore, this is a take-over game for an exchange that does not allow withdrawals. It is very similar to the situation where the prices on various exchanges varied greatly when FIL was launched recently. Interestingly, GBTC has always maintained a very high premium, reaching a peak of 25.4 times, and it still has a premium of 1.2 times. Why is there such a high premium? This involves another complex trading behavior. Simply put, price in the stock market is never equal to value. You can't simply use the actual price of BTC to explain why the price of GBTC is so much higher than Bitcoin. Perhaps you can imagine BTC as a company, and the behavior of investors buying GBTC is like speculating in stocks. Although this metaphor is not entirely accurate, it is relatively easier to understand. Now we understand this phenomenon, but the essential question has not yet been clarified: Are institutions buying GBTC because they are optimistic about BTC? 3. Who will take over in the end? There are always various reasons for retail investors to buy a stock or a currency, and these reasons can all be called "optimistic". However, as my previous article pointed out, this is the game posture of the bottom players - institutions do not care about being bullish, their only concern is arbitrage. In other words, in the eyes of institutions, it doesn’t matter whether Bitcoin is a scam or a revolution. They only pursue risk-free arbitrage opportunities. Do you remember what I said at the beginning of the article? Now let's play a role-playing game. Suppose I hold 10,000 BTC or assets of equivalent value, I will definitely not open a 100X contract, but I still want to make more money. So I looked for a risk-free way to make money, but certainly not by depositing money in a bank. On the one hand, banks do not accept BTC, and on the other hand, DeFi in the currency circle is too unsafe for me. Grayscale provides a wonderful opportunity for me to buy GBTC, regardless of the price - after all, there are always takers in the secondary market, and I can get at least 20% profit. I just need to make sure that I don't lose my principal after buying it. It's not difficult, there is a contract.To get a 20% to 200% premium profit on buying 10,000 BTC worth of GBTC on Grayscale, I could open a 1X short order with 5,000 BTC (or equivalent funds) and then use the other 5,000 BTC to buy GBTC is locked. After six months, I can sell GBTC and make a profit. Due to the existence of the contract, my principal will not be reduced: during the six months of locking up, if BTC rises, although my short order will suffer a loss, the price of my currency will rise and the value will still be maintained; if the price of BTC falls, The locked BTC depreciated, but my short order made money. In other words, I found a completely risk-free arbitrage opportunity. My property will not be less, but after six months of trading, I have obtained a risk-free return on investment. This is better than stock trading. Don’t underestimate 20%. After all, my total assets are US$120 million, and 20% is a considerable amount. This is the strategy of top players. So, what if no one takes over and GBTC cannot be sold at all? At present, there seems to be no need to worry about this risk because the market demand is strong. Moreover, even if there are no other buyers, Grayscale itself can take over the deal and conduct "arbitrage" in another form, because as long as this investment game continues, Grayscale can make profits. In fact, Grayscale earns about 7,000 BTC every year through huge management fees. As long as they can maintain profitability, it is feasible for them to take over the business themselves. 4. Impact on the market Grayscale's purchase of BTC is only one of the impacts, and it is not enough for me to tell you that the mad cow is coming. If you are not involved in contract trading, you may not have noticed that in the above-mentioned grayscale transactions, there are signals that the bull market is coming. This is a shocking opportunity. In fact, even though Grayscale has been buying on a large scale, the price of the currency has been falling over the past few months, which seems to indicate that Grayscale’s buying has little to do with the price of the currency. In fact, I have mentioned before that the increase in the amount of Grayscale GBTC you see is probably just the result of the big guys using their own BTC to participate in private placements. However, with the massive unlocking period coming, things may look different. Looking back at two situations: First, Grayscale is currently buying more Bitcoins at an increasingly faster pace, and institutions are constantly joining in.Among the opportunities provided by Grayscale, some institutions or companies that are relatively optimistic about Bitcoin can directly purchase BTC to participate in this risk-free arbitrage opportunity. Second, all participating institutions will open contracts for hedging. Of course, if they do not open contracts, then if the currency price rises, theoretically they will make double the profit, but big funds usually prefer stability. Since April this year, the number of grayscale locks has been increasing, and starting from October, a large number of GBTC will be unlocked. At this time, institutions may sell GBTC in the market, that is, private equity institutions begin to clear their positions. But they are not selling BTC directly, but by selling the GBTC in their hands. The "stock" price has been rising, attracting retail investors to continue to take over. Directly related to the currency circle, every time a certain amount of BTC is unlocked, it needs to be bought and shorted in the contract market. If you’re not familiar with the term “shorting,” it means that institutions don’t care what the current price of Bitcoin is. Once the unlock time is up, they will directly close the position. In the contract market, closing a short requires a buying operation, which pushes the price higher. At present, the size of the contract market has far exceeded that of the spot market. In this process, this bull market will be led by BTC and influenced by the contract market. Having said that, sometimes I feel a tinge of tragedy for those who ridicule and attack me. I once said that I am not willing to be a low-level player forever and am working hard to become a mid-level player. However, some people seem to only understand contracts and transactions at the level of gambling, as if the world is the well they see. #ETH #ALT #UMA #BTC $BTC $ETH