Every drop in the cattle cycle is for a better rise. A drop is not truly a decline, but a means to absorb funds and build momentum for a higher point. This type of drop is called an 'ineffective drop.' Opportunities for daily pullbacks and rebounds are as numerous as the hairs on a cow, so it is essential to leave enough floating space to operate and add positions. Adding positions is the most important link in achieving compound interest in short-term trading. Because my daily strong liquidations are far away, I can add positions and charge forward at any time without much concern. However, externally, one cannot shout this out, as individual position situations vary.
Making 10,000 from 100,000 daily is easy with minimal risk, while making 10,000 from 30,000 or 50,000 carries a risk 1-2.3 times greater. That's the principle.
Whether in stock trading or cryptocurrency, short-term trading is like marching in war, deploying troops and strategizing what to do at what point, and knowing when to retreat after achieving a certain level. The required forces differ for high and low volatility expectations, and both offense and defense differ accordingly.

A common misconception for newcomers playing memes is: only buy the cheap ones, and not the expensive ones. If something was previously expensive and has now dropped to a cheaper price, they are more inclined to buy it, thinking that this way it has a "cost-performance ratio". What if the market pulls back to its previous high?
You need to understand what the trend of "once very expensive, now very cheap" indicates. The major players and large investors have already dumped their holdings and fled; will you come in to push the market up? I know many find it hard to resist the human preference for "bargains", but "cheap" is the biggest trap in any trade, whether it's playing memes, buying BTC, or purchasing Nvidia. Have your altcoin holdings outperformed BTC in the past two years? Have your US stock holdings outperformed Nvidia in the past two years? Both of these are considered "the most expensive" assets. #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温 #市场调整後的机会？

Yesterday, the attempt to rebound and test the middle track failed. Currently, the price is starting to run in the lower half of the oscillation channel. As long as the price does not break below the cyan line, which is the lower edge of the oscillation channel, the overall trend remains oscillatory;
At the same time, if the price cannot return above the middle track, then this oscillatory market will be favorable to bears. The weekend and next week are likely to be boring with small fluctuations;
An oscillatory market favorable to bears means: when the price is running in the lower half of the oscillation channel, it is more likely to test the blue average support area downwards, and at the same time, the middle track will have a certain suppressive effect;
Just like the previous 3 weeks where the middle track consistently had weak support; #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温 #加密市场盘整

BTC and how different levels of altcoins are harvesting retail investors, along with the various daily K-line charts of cryptocurrencies that I have drawn for reference (BTC corresponds to 1, outstanding altcoins correspond to 2, mainstream altcoins correspond to 3, secondary mainstream altcoins correspond to 4, and junk altcoins correspond to 5. This is a rough classification and not absolutely precise, derived from multiple rounds of market conditions and historical project trends for reference only, definitely not investment advice).
BTC is a man-made asset, which gives it consensus value. Take this year's market as an example; after BTC's main upward wave rose to 73,700, it oscillated at a high level for five months (in the range of 60,000-72,000) before a sudden drop below 50,000 occurred, and the same was true in 2021. The market makers sell off at high levels and need to create long-term (measured in months) oscillations to stir market sentiment, attracting new buyers, and only then will they initiate a wave of downward pressure, forcing investors to give up their holdings. This process of downward harvesting is relatively gentle and does not see a sudden drop immediately after a major upward wave.
The so-called outstanding altcoins, like ETH, XRP, ADA, BNB, SOL, INJ, DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, etc., have token values that are actually assigned by human actions, market, and technology factors. Market makers only need to firmly control the market and weave exciting stories to exchange the coins in their hands for investors' real money. These projects are top-tier in terms of story engagement, concepts, technology, resources, funds, and so on, possessing the strength to cross multiple cycles.
Mainstream altcoins, such as AVAX, NEAR, UNI, AXS, SAND, CRV, etc., are slightly inferior to outstanding altcoins. They may lack in storytelling, resources are not perfect, and they lack novel selling points. Market makers have a certain strength but also need to sell off to harvest retail investors. As for whether they can make a comeback, it will depend on whether they can uncover new stories and regain investor favor.

， $SOL yesterday bought the dip at 188 for futures, and ETH bought the dip at 3300 for spot. Laughing during the day, not laughing at night; subjectively hoping for Bitcoin to make a WXY pattern is about it, because if it goes for an XZ again, I really don't know what the altcoin market will be washed into;
2. The breakout below the channel and the accelerated move is quite obvious, it's not stubbornness, but in this market now, if SOL and ETH can't be played anymore, I really don't know what else can be played. Are we going to only trade Bitcoin in the future?
3. This is E's chart from more than a month ago, feel free to assess, I think it's about right.
I am also experiencing a pullback, I can only say that in this familiar script where Bitcoin is strong and altcoins are weak, just ensure that you don't get wiped out. If you want to take part in the altcoin season, you have to endure the volatility of altcoins; profits and losses come from the same source. If you bet right, great; if you bet wrong, accept it. Trading is just that, operating on probabilities. Still, I believe that an altcoin season is highly probable because an altcoin season is the nature of TMD, and only human nature doesn't change. #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #USUAL走势分析 #市场调整後的机会？ #加密市场盘整 #市场调整後的机会？

Next is a bull market, how should I allocate my positions?
My answer is "33 system",
Three layers of long positions, three layers of short positions, three layers left empty for flexibility, and one layer of contracts!
1. Three layers of long positions are enough in a bull market,
Even with a single position, encountering a 10x coin can double your overall position,
Let alone three layers of positions, just make sure to choose the right coins for these 30% positions!
Enter in batches, spreading these 30% positions across 10 to 20 targets,
Having 30% of them correctly guessed is already quite good! The rest is left to fate!
2. For short-term trades, three layers should be enough to look for opportunities for intraday trades!
Currently, my daily trading volume is less than 10%,
This also helps prevent long positions from missing out on the bull market, easing my anxiety!
Otherwise, if my long position is fully loaded and it keeps dropping daily, I wouldn't even know where to cry!
3. Leaving 30% of the positions empty is to keep a backup plan,
A man with money is a man; a man without money is a difficult man,
Preventing unexpected situations from rendering me helpless!
4. As for contracts, it's subjective, a few hundred dollars for fun, a small gamble for enjoyment.
Many friends also don't trade contracts, and that's also correct!
#萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温 #市场调整後的机会？

Many people use price to measure bull & bear markets, for example, if BTC falls below a certain level, then it's a bear market. This is incorrect❌.
I use trends to measure bear and bull markets. To give an extreme example, during the two weeks of May 19, BTC dropped by 50%. Does that mean a bear market had arrived? Everything that happened later showed that the bull market did not end; on the contrary, the bull market continued until the end of 2021.
The current situation is similar; even if this week’s candle and the next week’s candle fall by 10% or 20%, the bull market is not over. What needs to return will return.

Truly believing in a meme
Means getting excited when it drops
Means adding to your position instead of selling at a loss
If you buy a meme with the intention of holding long-term
You must have recognized its core
Community, concept
A good meme, if it’s a golden dog, will definitely give you many opportunities to get on board before it takes off; speculators might leave if the price drops, so they miss out on the investment from the trough to the peak. They can only make money chasing the rise.
So distinguish between speculation and genuine belief; if you buy a meme, it’s speculation waiting for its main upward wave to come; if you chase in, you must get out during a crazy pump. Because when it drops, you will definitely sell at a loss.

This time it's a slow bull market, it won't rise as quickly as in 2023, nor will it form a double top structure like in 2021. The main players will always adjust their trading strategies compared to the previous bull market, focusing on surprising the unprepared.
From the current candlestick patterns, it can be seen that it's taking 3 steps forward and 2.5 steps back; basically, anyone chasing highs will lose money, unless they are positioned at the lowest point to break even. If it’s a weak imitation, even buying at the lowest point will result in losses.
#比特币战略储备 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温

The decline over the past two days must have left a deep impression on many people. It has been a slow and steady drop, like a dull knife cutting into flesh, step by step downward. Buying the dip at any time during the day feels like only reaching halfway up the mountain. Even trying to buy ETH at 3100 makes one fear a sudden flash crash to 2800, and at 93000, buying Bitcoin raises fears of a sudden drop below 90,000. The real turning point came from the U.S. PCE data and core PCE data being significantly lower than expected, leading the market to increase expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in March 2025. After the U.S. stock market opened, there was a broad rebound, especially MicroStrategy, which at one point rose over 10%. In the past, in the crypto world, you could just hold on and during bull markets, it would eventually spill over into your altcoins. Now, market rotations are fast, the pace is quicker, and we need to pay more attention to U.S. economic data and the actions of the Federal Reserve. If you already hold these quality altcoins at a low cost, it’s fine to hold a bit longer, taking advantage of the cost advantage. If you’re worried, you can set a stop-loss at the original price, but if there’s more of a rebound, the rewards could be substantial.

After entering the weekend, the turnover rate has dropped significantly, about 160% lower than Friday, and the trading volume is the lowest during Asian time. Therefore, as long as Asian investors remain optimistic, the price of BTC will be guaranteed to a certain extent, and it may even rise slightly. However, in the trading time zones of Europe and the United States, if investors are pessimistic, they will leave the market when they see the rising BTC, so the pressure on the price is relatively large. It can be said that the greater the price difference between daytime and nighttime on weekends, the greater the difference in sentiment.
If the price during the day is higher than that at night, it means that the sentiment of Asian investors is better than that of American investors, and vice versa, which can be of great help to our judgment of investor sentiment.
As for the support, the current price has not deviated from the range of the support price. Even if there was a large amount of turnover on Friday, the current support is still between US$95,500 and US$100,500, as long as this range is not broken. I dare to buy if it falls below the staged new low. For example, the current US$92,000 is the recent staged low.
#比特币战略储备 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温

The weekend doesn't seem to have extreme volume contraction and oscillation; instead, there are still some fluctuations. So, let's briefly discuss:
Yesterday, after the price touched the blue average support zone, there was a significant rebound. Thus, I judge that if there is a rebound, the target should be at the middle line. Subsequently, the price's rebound on Saturday was basically close to the middle line but did not touch it;
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a secondary rebound targeting the middle line during the weekend, currently around 100500;
On the other hand, since the price quickly returned after falling below the lower edge of the oscillation channel (cyan line), we cannot define the current trend as a bearish trend, but rather as a corrective oscillation under a larger bullish trend;
When will this wave of correction end? It's simple, just wait for the price to stand above the middle line;
Before that, the correction is still ongoing. The closer we get to the blue average support line (currently at 89800), the higher the risk-reward ratio for going long. At the same time, as the price gets closer to the middle line, the risk-reward ratio for going short also increases;
Before the price confirms it has broken below the blue line and causes the entire channel to shift downward significantly, there is no need to shout 'the bull market is over, the bear market has arrived.' Just treat it as a range-bound oscillation market;
In the short term, as long as the price remains below the middle line for a long time and causes the channel to shift downward, the short-term price trend will favor the bears, similar to when the price remained above the middle line in the oscillation channel until it accelerated to test the orange average resistance level;
Personally, I still look forward to the price eventually testing the blue support zone.

Bitcoin has now dropped back to around 98,000. Many people have told me that they are tired of the declines. In fact, such pullbacks are considered normal. However, the altcoins are worrisome; Bitcoin is still at a high level, and if altcoins drop further, what will happen?
In the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin's absolute support is at 90,000, and ETH's support is at the 3,000 mark. Those with leverage should be cautious. Although Powell's market drop surprised everyone, I believe that on January 20th, when Trump takes office, there should be a wave of market activity. Therefore, I see this pullback as a necessary consolidation before another rise. There are still 30 days left, which gives the market ample time to consolidate and recover.
At this stage, if your position is not heavy, you can use a strategy of buying more on big dips, buying less on small dips, and not buying when there’s no drop to gradually acquire low-priced chips. #比特币战略储备 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温

In this bull market, many new coins first drop by 50% and then V back to new highs, which is a very effective way to shake people off the bus.
USUAL launched at 0.4, lowest at 0.2, highest at 1.6;
MOVE launched around 0.9, lowest at 0.5, highest at 1.13 (except for the opening spike);
COW went up to 1.0 a few days ago, dropped to a low of 0.58, and now V back to 0.9.
If you are optimistic about a coin, playing with spot laddering is the best way; otherwise, slightly exceeding 2x contracts can lead to immediate liquidation. #比特币战略储备 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC #比特币市场波动观察 #USUAL走势分析 #PCE通胀降温

The market trend of BTC affects the stock prices of $MSTR and $SMLR, and this has been made very clear. If you're optimistic about Q1 next year, then boldly invest in batches.
Today, let's talk about a few famous crashes we've experienced before: 2020.312, 2021.519, the 2022 Luna incident, the FTX incident. It seems there haven't been any significant crashes remembered in 2023, except for 2024.85 (I entered the space in 2018, so I didn't experience 2017.94). Feel free to add more.
Today's situation is different from the ones above. It's merely a small episode within the main bullish market wave. Unless the trend disappears in Q1 next year. However, the probability of economic problems or black swan events occurring is very low. Then there's the transition of power in the U.S., the new SEC chair, and all of these are hype for positive sentiment, meaning this is just a normal correction in a bull market. Don't panic.

312 was during the U.S. economic recession and the pandemic. 519 was due to the policies from the University of Tokyo, plus I remember Elon Musk causing a stir and violently liquidating positions. The Luna incident and the FTX incident speak for themselves; we all understand.
This year's 85 is due to expectations of trading recession combined with Japan's interest rate hikes, and arbitrage trading might trigger a liquidity crisis panic.

So, currently. Even if there is a U.S. economic recession, it's still early. So, stay steady, we can win. Of course, the new trend and FOMO sentiment might not be that FOMO this month; it may have to wait until next month.
So let's look forward to it. Friends, DYOR

#加密市场反弹 #PCE通胀降温 #USUAL走势分析 #比特币战略储备 #灰度SUI信托基金

This half-month pullback
From any perspective
Has already reached the extreme range of the pullback
It is also this level of pullback/washout/leverage clearance
That has a better chance to start the next wave of market
The pullback in alts feels satisfied at the first wave retracement level of 40%
BTC pullback is just under 20%, barely at the level

#加密市场反弹 #PCE通胀降温 #USUAL走势分析 #比特币市场波动观察 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC

1. 60% main position, invest in bear and bull long cycles, suitable for hoarding BTC as the main focus in the first year of reduced production, later suitable for ETH. Currently, consider allocating ETH + Sol with leverage below 3 times. Any other investment logic may not withstand the test of time; currently, only Ethereum and Solana are the most certain.

2. Various long-term positions in old coins, VC coins, and sector coins have no cost-effectiveness; it's better to switch to leading coins in major sectors.

3. Currently holding long-term low-leverage positions in ETH + Sol; any other assets are likely to underperform, with a low win rate.

4. If speculating in the short term and aiming for high returns, various old coins, VC coins, leading coins, and sector coins have no cost-effectiveness; it's better to look for strong meme coins. Whether it's multi-million dollar on-chain projects or multi-hundred million to multi-billion dollar projects, the explosive power and overall odds of popular leading meme coins are much better than those of previous old altcoins.

#加密市场反弹 #PCE通胀降温 #USUAL走势分析 #比特币市场波动观察 #萨尔瓦多增持BTC

Steps for project issuance:

1. A few people come together to discuss a concept
2. Fundraising begins to attract supporters
3. Create a false prosperity on the manufacturing chain
4. Launch the token to attract users to take over
5. Sell off, exchange for yachts, luxury homes, and villas
6. The remaining tokens are gradually unlocked over several years to collect welfare
7. Change the concept and start again
8. Complete the sale with a two-digit number of active users on the chain
9. Occasionally jump out to brainwash you: Our project's goal is to change the world. In the end, the investors realize that the world has not changed, only the wallets of the big players have changed, while we have indeed emptied our own wallets for their so-called 'dream' to change ourselves

#加密市场反弹 #PCE通胀降温 #USUAL走势分析 #比特币市场波动观察 #比特币战略储备

Why did the market rebound last night?

1. The U.S. avoided a government shutdown = Printing press starts
2. PCE data is very good = Interest rates can continue to be reduced
3. Gamblers are all liquidated = That's the key

Originally thought the bear market could last a month, but damn, it almost bottomed out and is ready to rebound in just 3-4 days.

Those who didn't buy last night can consider buying a little now.

In the world of cryptocurrency, a day is like a year in the human world.

#PCE通胀降温 #USUAL走势分析 #比特币市场波动观察 #加密市场回调 #圣诞行情预测