Yesterday's U.S. market was closed, and the BTC price was still within the shock range of 2.56-2.61, without any major changes. The key support level this week is still at 2.48, the resistance level is at 2.75, and the short-term operating range within the day is between 2.56-2.63. $BTC

According to the previous analysis, we can operate between 2.56-2.615. If it breaks through and successfully steps back above 2.6, then the short-term targets can be towards 2.63, 2.65 and 2.68. The market price has not changed much, and the fluctuation range is within 400 points, which is suitable for short-term trading. However, the altcoins have been quite lively in the past two days, especially with DWF taking the market position, which has driven up the entire market. #BTC

​Uncertainty in the Bitcoin market has increased recently, with investors worried about the balance between investment returns and risks. Although the dispute between the SEC and Grayscale may not be resolved soon, all 20,000 Bitcoins held by the US government are about to be sold off, which will bring huge selling pressure to the market. In addition, ftx faces US$3 billion in debt repayments and Mentougou is about to be liquidated, which may lead to market adjustments. In the short term, we need to pay close attention to the support level of $25,300. Once the level is broken, it may break the short-term shock pattern. #BTC

The Bitcoin market has continued to fluctuate slightly recently. Although many parties intend to rebound, they are not strong enough. In my personal judgment, after the energy of multiple parties is further consumed, the risk of a downward breakthrough will increase. Everyone needs to pay attention to the support level of $25,300. If it breaks, it may drop to the support area of ​​$23,500-24,000. In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on high altitude, but be cautious. #BTC

Some people believe that the current bear market is the longest in history, but the terms bull market and bear market are actually subjective and have no clear definitions. This ambiguity has led to all kinds of arguments, but none of them make any sense. Investors generally call the trend since Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000 on November 10, 2021, as a "multi-year bear market", which has lasted for 659 days. However, there have been longer bear markets in history, such as from November 2013 to January 2017, when the price of Bitcoin remained below its previous high of $1,000 for 37 consecutive months (approximately 1,125 days). For another example, after Bitcoin reached $20,000 for the first time in December 2017, it entered a "bear market" that lasted for 1,095 days. $BTC

After the release of U.S. core PCE price index data for July, the market further focused on key inflation reports and employment data for clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes during the year. Data showed that the PCE price index in July increased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, which was the same as expected and the previous value. The year-on-year growth rate of the core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose slightly to 4.2% from 4.1% in June, in line with market expectations.

This upward trend may raise inflationary concerns. At last week's Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned that although inflation has fallen from highs, it is still too high and is ready to raise interest rates at an appropriate time, but also emphasized that the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in making decisions based on economic data. #美联储是否加息？

According to the latest data released, the number of job openings in the U.S. Department of Labor fell to 8.83 million, lower than expected and reaching a new low in the past seven months. This indicates that the U.S. job market is facing a weakening situation. At the same time, data released by the Economic Advisory Committee showed that the consumer confidence index also fell, falling to 106.1 from the previous value of 114, which was lower than market expectations. In particular, both the confidence index that assesses the current situation and the expectations index that reflects the outlook for the next six months have declined.

The data suggested the Fed's tightening policy measures may be paying off and reducing pressure for further rate hikes. According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike in interest rates at the September meeting has dropped sharply to 9.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged has soared to 90.5%. #美联储是否加息？

The U.S. Court of Appeals overturned the SEC’s decision to deny Grayscale’s application for the listing of a Bitcoin spot ETF. This decision created the conditions for the listing of the first Bitcoin ETF and injected a powerful impetus into the cryptocurrency industry.

However, we need to remain cautious. The SEC cannot rest on its laurels. They can also ask the full Court of Appeals judges within the next 45 days to reconsider Tuesday's ruling. If the appeals court rejects the case, the SEC will have 90 days to ask the Supreme Court to hear the case. Therefore, although the US court's decision is a big step forward, the dust has not yet settled, and we still need to wait and see.

Recently, the U.S. stock market has experienced violent fluctuations, causing various investment products, including cryptocurrencies, to suffer heavy losses. In particular, the price of Bitcoin plummeted directly to US$25,000, and rebounded slightly later to stabilize at around US$26,000. The current market performance is relatively sideways, so many people have begun to be bearish and predict that Bitcoin will fall back to around $10,000. I am not completely opposed to this view, but I believe that the strong support position of Bitcoin is near $25,000. Therefore, in my personal judgment, Bitcoin is likely to maintain this level in the short term. #BTC

Recent data shows that the current balance of Bitcoins on the trading platform is 2,256,045, which is a new low in the past five years. This data has drawn attention to market trends and speculation that it may mean that the bear market is nearing its end. #BTC

Having fewer Bitcoins held on exchanges is actually good for future prices, as it means coins held on exchanges can be sold off at any time. Looking back at the lead-up to the 2020 bull run, cryptoassets on exchanges also continued to hit new lows. Therefore, the current situation may be a signal that the bear market is coming to an end.

Market conditions are changing, but human nature remains unchanged. Over the past few years, the volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) prices has caused concern and controversy among many investors. Since 2018, the price of BTC has gradually declined, and people continue to have different predictions about market trends. Whether it is the end of 2018 or the end of 22, every time BTC falls to a certain extent, there are always people who think it will continue to fall. #BTC ​

This stems from human greed and fear. We always want to buy at a lower price and exit at a higher price. However, in actual operation, there are only very few people who can actually buy the bottom. So why does this happen? $BTC

Last week, Powell released a statement on monetary policy at the Jackson Hole annual meeting of the central bank, which attracted widespread attention from the market. He said the Fed will further tighten monetary policy to bring inflation down to its 2% target. However, he also stressed that he would proceed with caution and make decisions based on incoming data.

This statement had an impact on the U.S. stock market, which began to refocus on the upcoming economic data and assess the prospects of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Most people believe that signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy will gradually emerge and that this tightening cycle may be coming to an end.

Tonight at 22:05, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to deliver a speech of great significance. This speech is considered the most important part of the central bank's annual meeting, and its content will directly reflect the Fed's attitude and policy orientation towards the macro economy. Currently, the monetary policy adopted by the Federal Reserve is to shrink its balance sheet every month and decide whether to continue to raise interest rates or suspend them based on macroeconomic data. #美联储是否加息？

However, despite widespread market expectations that the Federal Reserve may have ended its interest rate hike cycle, U.S. bond yields have continued to soar. U.S. Treasury bond prices continued to fall throughout August, pushing up yields and borrowing costs. What further aggravated the situation was that U.S. stocks fell sharply again this morning, with the Nasdaq index falling nearly 2%. Bond markets are losing ground and rising borrowing costs could lead to a recession, posing a daunting challenge for Powell's upcoming speech: How to soothe the U.S. Treasury market without undermining the Fed's own tightening policy. #BTC

News analysis

Early this morning, Nvidia announced the company’s financial report for July. Data shows that Nvidia’s revenue increased by 101% year-on-year, and its net profit increased by 843% year-on-year, setting a historical record. This news attracted market attention, especially the investment prospects of technology stocks and artificial intelligence concepts.

The current market focus is mainly on two aspects: one is whether technology stocks will continue to lead the stock market rally, and the other is whether the concept of artificial intelligence is real and feasible. As an important enterprise and capital market engine, NVIDIA plays a key role in these two issues.

The biggest problem currently facing the market is insufficient liquidity. First, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, which will put pressure on the market. Secondly, the United States plans to over-issuance of bonds in September, which will also put pressure on the market. Third, the Federal Reserve also plans to reduce its balance sheet, which also puts pressure on the market. The price of Bitcoin rebounded after hitting the $25,300 line again. The short-term pressure is at $26,300. If it can stabilize at this level, it is expected to rise to $27,500-28,500. But the rebound does not mean a reversal of the trend. The market may still fall back again, with the key support level at $24,700-25,300. If it cannot hold this position, the market may fall significantly. Medium and long-term investors should wait for the market to form a bottom pattern, while short-term investors should try to follow the market trend, but be sure to set a good stop loss. $BTC

In the current market situation, we don’t need to worry too much about short-term price fluctuations. Instead, we should stay calm and operate according to our own strategies. Spot investors, in particular, should avoid selling chips to avoid missing out on profits. As long as you hold your position well and wait for the end of the year, the harvest will be more impressive.

Observing the trend of the Nasdaq yesterday, it hit the 120-day moving average and showed a strong rebound. Compared with this, the performance of the big pie is also relatively strong, while altcoins currently lack liquidity and have experienced a pin-like correction. A similar situation is likely to happen to most altcoins, so we should not have a gambling mentality and try to buy the dip against the trend. According to technical analysis, the upper pressure of ARB is around 1.02, and the lower support is at 0.98, followed by 0.95. In the short term, the probability of a rebound is greater, but as mentioned earlier, the rebound is just an opportunity to take profits, and then it may fall back to around 0.95 again, because the market has not yet tested the previous low, and Ethereum has not yet tested the previous low. Support near 1600 has not been tested yet. $ETH

Insufficient liquidity in the currency market is the biggest problem currently faced. According to news, the Fed's balance sheet has shrunk to less than $820 million, and has shrunk by $63 billion in a single week. At the same time, $55 million of funds on Coinbase flowed out, and these funds flowed into the Bitcoin market in large quantities. According to statistics, more than $16 billion of capital has flowed into Bitcoin since 2023. $BTC

For Bitcoin, the trend has been analyzed many times, and medium and long-term operations can be carried out according to the prompted strategies. In terms of short-term operations, it is expected that there will be mainly shocks in the range of 25,500-26,500 US dollars, so it is a more appropriate choice to continue to focus on high altitudes and low long prices. #BTC

August is about to see massive token unlocks for 19 altcoins, and some of these projects have already released large amounts of tokens over the past few weeks, only to see their prices drop. There will also be a series of important dates in the coming days related to the unlocking of various tokens.

​

First up is Injective (INJ), who plan to issue $23.58 million worth of tokens on August 21, 2023. Subsequently, Algorand (ALGO) and Space ID (ID) issued tokens of $3.24 million and $3.71 million respectively on August 22. The amount of tokens unlocked by these projects will have an impact on the market. $INJ

The news over the weekend was relatively calm, and Bitcoin entered a new range-bound phase in the short term, roughly between $25,500 and $26,500. At present, the long-term trend is still in the bottoming stage. Only after experiencing the second bottoming can the real bottom of the market be determined. I personally believe that Bitcoin may usher in a rebound in the range of 24,700-25,200 US dollars. At this stage, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude and conduct less trading operations. $BTC

Bitcoin price cycle analysis

Cycle analysis of Bitcoin prices can help us understand trends in the cryptocurrency market. In a cryptocurrency world filled with volatility and uncertainty, finding reliable evidence of market trends is a challenging task. By studying Bitcoin’s historical price cycles and the behavior of short- and long-term holders, we can better understand what’s happening in the current cryptocurrency market. #BTC

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline at 5 o'clock this morning, falling by more than 8%, and even fell to $24,000 at one point, but then the price rebounded to more than $26,000.

In fact, there is no need to panic. Although our positions will feel damaged in the short term, we must be clear that what we need to do most is to hoard coins! The lower you go, the more greedy you become. If you withstand short-term fluctuations and hold on to the currency in the next bull market, you will be rewarded. Remember the greedy moment mentioned before? Don’t you slowly lay out the bottom position now? When to wait?

Why did it fall so hard?

First, some people believe that this plunge was caused by the shrinking of the spot trading market and the increase of the derivatives market. The decrease in spot trading volume has led to a decrease in market supply, while the increase in the derivatives market has brought more speculators and leveraged transactions. This change in market structure could lead to increased price volatility, triggering Bitcoin’s plunge.

The prices of Bitcoin (BTC) $BTC and Ethereum (ETH) $ETH continue to fall, bringing panic and worry to the market. BTC fell below the important support level of $28,000 in a short period of time, and fell 9% to nearly $25,000 at 5:30 in the morning. ETH fell even more sharply, reaching as low as $1,550.

Due to the sharp fluctuations in currency prices, Coinglass data shows that more than 170,000 people have been liquidated in the past 24 hours, and the total liquidation of the entire network has reached 1.02 billion U.S. dollars, of which BTC liquidation topped the list with 480 million U.S. dollars, and ETH liquidation reached 303 million U.S. dollars. Subsequently, it set the largest liquidation record in recent times.

The market has experienced a round of decline, volatility has rebounded, and many altcoins have fallen by more than 10%. This signal indicates that the altcoin market has come to an end under the current market liquidity.

Therefore, after the altcoin market has basically ended, when some altcoins begin to explode in turn, they should be shipped in time. It is expected that the subsequent decline will not have a particularly large impact on the mainstream sector, but the altcoin market may return to zero before the market reverses again.

​

Recently, Binance has launched many new coins, and market feedback and project reputation are gradually moving in a positive direction. SEI's single-day trading volume exceeded 1 billion, but BNB has been in a tepid state recently. In the field of platform coins, I said at the beginning of the year that the most explosive currency of the year was OKB, which has doubled this year. However, compared to BNB, OKB is clearly lacking in future development potential. Therefore, if BNB pulls back below 230 points, a new round of fixed investment participation can logically begin, and BNB’s annual return has not been bad.