In the past two days, we can always hear about the "Christmas disaster" trend. In recent years, as Christmas approaches, the market always rises and then falls, causing large-scale bullish explosions. You can see the pre-holiday trend sorted out by Laolang.
Most of them see a sharp rise before December, a peak and fall in mid-December, a sharp rise and fall, and then sideways movement during December 25, and then a new market will be formed after the holiday.

Foreigners have the term "Black Friday", which means that before Christmas, they start making large purchases and shopping malls have promotions and discounts. During this period, funds will flow out and markets such as the U.S. stock market will weaken.
The market is facing capital outflow in the next two days, so please pay attention to the risk of rising and falling.

A few days ago, Old Wolf talked about being cautious of the 'Door Painting Market', accompanied by unusual movements in South Korea, BTC completed a double kill at 100,000 USD.
It can be seen that at the beginning of March this year, there was a very similar trend, and a week later, BTC exploded and crushed the short positions, forming a short squeeze top with a rebound of nearly 20%.

Referring to the March trend, once BTC completes a V-shaped rebound and restores the decline, be prepared for a 'second door painting' to avoid being caught off guard by a counterattack.

Just now, an American address transferred 19,000 BTC. We can see that there have been significant movements after such transfers. This amount exceeds previous transfers, so be wary of the 'painting door market'.

For example, in August, the American address transferred 10,000 BTC to Coinbase, and then BTC quickly surged, liquidating short positions and absorbing liquidity above, followed by a rapid decline, resulting in both longs and shorts being wiped out, and altcoins experiencing significant pullbacks.
Old Wolf remembers, the last time I sent a sudden movement alert, the market had just started to drop, and some friends said my alert was not timely. This time, I’m informing everyone at the first moment to be cautious of a rise followed by a drop.

Recently, XRP has surged, with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion, making it the third largest. Many veteran players are exceptionally excited and starting to invest in EOS, LTC, and even BTS, XLM. Those who have heard of these two coins have experienced two rounds of bull and bear markets, but will these coins become the next XRP?
It can be seen that XRP's chain has been very active over the past few years, even surpassing BTC and ETH, primarily used in interbank financial transactions.
XRP, BTC, and ETH have demonstrated over nearly a decade that digital assets have their own valuation methods, which is the on-chain usage. Whether it is community traffic or high concurrency, all have been falsified by time; time is the ultimate standard for testing everything.

BTC's ETF funds are turning to inflows, and institutions are buying on dips.
It can be seen that in the previous mainstream declines, after the inflow of ETF funds, BTC ushered in a sharp rise. Last Friday, the negative news of US crypto law came to light, institutions began to enter the market in large numbers, and the mainstream rebounded in response.

On the other hand, miner capitulation rates hit a record low.
After the halving, miners have a hard time and their profits have been cut in half.
It can be seen that the previous few times when miners surrendered were the bottoming moments.

It is worth noting that the U.S. non-farm data released on Friday this week is expected to break the deadlock of volatility. Pay attention to the leverage of on-site positions to avoid being harvested by spikes.

Last Friday, the U.S. Tax and Treasury Department finalized the crypto bill, and BTC surged in response.
The bill stipulates that taxes will be collected starting in 26 years, and platforms need to submit transaction information of all investors. It is worth noting that the bill does not include DEX. Laolang believes that more investors will turn to DEX to avoid disclosing transaction information and evading crypto taxes.
In 2021, Biden passed the new infrastructure plan and completed an important part of the plan, which is crypto tax. Laolang talked about it at that time. The United States is bound to use ETFs and a series of means to open up the trading links and allow a steady stream of crypto taxes to feed back into the new U.S. infrastructure.

BTC computing power plummeted, which was the largest drop since the "Miner 519". After the halving, miners surrendered collectively.

It is worth noting that the number of BTC active addresses hit a new low, indicating a lack of liquidity in the market.

Not only BTC, but US stocks are also facing liquidity difficulties. Last night, Berkshire A, with a market value of US$900 billion, plummeted 99% during trading. Subsequently, the New York Stock Exchange urgently announced that it was a technical problem and withdrew transactions. Affected by this, several giants plummeted, and the scene was very spectacular.
Wall Street broke the news that market makers withdrew funds, leading to this historic crash.

The transaction is generated in the pending order. It stands to reason that the farther away from the current price, the greater the depth. Laolang remembers that in 2014, BTC on B network plunged sharply, causing many people to buy BTC for $1.

Half an hour ago, Mt.gox transferred 12,000 BTC, and just transferred out another 30,000 BTC. Mt.gox once reappeared with Satoshi Nakamoto and was called a double kill of bad news. Now Mt.gox has frequent abnormal movements, and the compensation that has been waited for ten years seems to be really coming. If you hear about Mt.gox for the first time, Laolang will help you sort out the entire process of Mt.gox's compensation.

In 2012, Mt.gox's transaction volume accounted for 80% of the world's total, surpassing the current BN, OK and Coinbase. However, it was this platform that suffered a theft of 850,000 BTC by hackers, and in 2014, Mt.gox declared bankruptcy.

In 2017, Mt.gox recovered 200,000 BTC, and the price of BTC at that time was 618 times that of 2011.

The expectation of ETH's spot ETF in the past two days has stimulated a surge in ETH holdings, with both volume and price rising. The final result will come tonight.

At 4 a.m., the U.S. SEC will notify the ETF approval results. Regardless of whether it is passed or not, the market is expected to fluctuate violently.

Not only that, the United States passed the FIT21 encryption law today, which means that the United States has laws to rely on to tighten control over the encryption ecosystem. The impact of the dual news will have an impact on the market. Pay attention to unusual movements in the market at night.

BTC：

BTC: 3,200 BTC are being transferred into the K-line, which creates selling pressure expectations for BTC. BTC is forced to fall back and move higher along the 5-day line. The bottom of the hourly line continues to rise, indicating that there is long support. The $68,688 below is the key point of the support line formed on May 16 and 20. BTC must confirm the bottom at $68,688 to break the deadlock of the top divergence. Next, BTC will rebound at $68,688.

The surge in ETH holdings indicates that a big market is on the way.

Positions are always one step ahead of the market. The more positions change, the bigger the market trend will be.

This week, the Federal Reserve released its minutes, coupled with global risk aversion, gold broke through a new high, and is expected to see a trend turning point this week.

BTC：
ETF funds continue to flow in, which has a positive effect on BTC. The hourly line rebounded in a V shape, confirming the bottom support. It can be seen that the upper $67465 is the key point for the pin. Only by standing firmly at $67465 can it build a bottom and strengthen, entering a new round of squeeze and pull-up market. With the weakening of long volume, BTC needs to test the high point. Next, BTC will rise to test $67465.

Recently, the altcoin market has plummeted, with the total market value falling by more than 20%.
Laolang has talked about this before. There are three market periods in the mountain village every year. They are the red envelope market at the beginning of the year and the flood season market in the middle of the year.
Through rektcapital's Shanzhai cycle chart, we can see that Shanzhai is still in the bottoming stage and is expected to usher in a complete "Shanzhai bottom" at the end of May.

It is worth noting that it is often the mainstream that breaks through first, and then the copycat will rise in tandem. Therefore, it is safer to wait for the mainstream to break through the previous high, and then operate the copycat to make up for the rise.
The key point for a compensatory rise is expected to appear again at the end of this month. It is better to take a break in the spot market in these two weeks. I wish you all a happy weekend and see you next week.

The computing power has dropped sharply in the past two days. It can be seen that the halving has halved the profits of miners.

Why do miners always transfer money to dump the market after each halving? The reason is that the cost has doubled, and miners have to survive. What else can they do but sell the coins?

The good news is that the mining industry is in full swing, which often heralds the emergence of a stage bottom. Once the miners have sold off all their coins, the market for the altcoins will pick up.

BTC：
BTC fell below the 5-day line and weakened. The hourly line peak lowered and faced resistance selling pressure. The upper $62,308 is the key point of the M head. BTC needs to break through $62,308 with a large volume to break the deadlock of shock and further rush higher. With the weakening of long volume, BTC will rise and test $62,308 next.

The United States sued metamask for operating without a license. Due to its simple installation and operation, metamask has become the world's largest online wallet. Because of its little fox icon, it is also called the Fox Wallet.

A few days ago, Laolang just talked about the United States suing UNI, and said that this is just the beginning. After the Americans implement encryption compliance, they will begin to "confiscate" everything, including BN, which will also pay tens of billions in compensation.

You would say that centralized ones will pay compensation, and fully decentralized ones can escape the disaster? On the contrary, if you pay, you can still survive, but if you don’t pay, you will face comprehensive suppression.

After the release of CPI last week, expectations of interest rate hikes soared, and geopolitical risks intensified over the weekend, causing BTC and U.S. stocks to plummet.

At the same time, today is the US tax limit, ETF funds are also flowing out, and hot money is being withdrawn frantically. The good news is that the Federal Reserve will slow down the balance sheet reduction in May, and the corresponding ETF in Hong Kong will also be launched in early May. It seems that the downward momentum will slow down in May.

It is worth noting that after this round of sharp drop, DeFi is suffering from the double blow of negative news and pledge liquidation. Currently, the founder of CRV has pledged 370 million coins and is facing the risk of liquidation.

A liquidation of small funds will cause you to lose money, while a liquidation of large funds will easily push prices down further and cause others to lose money. Pay attention to controlling the CRV leverage coefficient.

In one week, BTC will start a new halving trend.

It can be seen that there were sharp rises and falls before and after the previous halvings, such as the Brexit market in 2016 and the 312 crash in 2020. After the big wash, BTC tends to soar and rise straight.

The performance of this round of halving is very impressive. Under the favorable expectations of ETF, BTC soared ahead of schedule. As the halving approaches, risks and opportunities coexist. Laolang expects that volatility will further increase, and attention should be paid to reducing the leverage ratio.

Lao Lang WeChat: lang0x00 Lao Lang WeChat: lang0x00
BTC：
A huge amount of options expire today, corresponding to BTC entering a triangle convergence trend, long and short positions are heating up, pay attention to the breakthrough trend, BTC rebounded along the 5-day line, and the hourly line continuously inserted needles. It faces selling pressure from the resistance line above, and needs to test the high point multiple times. The upper $71,448 is the key point of the resistance line. BTC needs to break through $71,448 with large volume to enter a new round of short squeeze. Next, BTC will rise and test $71,448.

BTC's Coin-Day Index has fallen. Referring to the trend in the past five years, is a big fluctuation coming again?

It can be seen that the sharp rise and fall of coins often means that big funds are choosing a new direction. Similar situations occurred at the peak of the bull market in 2017, the end of the bear market in 2019, the beginning of the bull market in early 2020, and the end of the bear market in 2021.



Coin days refers to the number of days that BTC is transferred between wallets. Since everything on the chain is transparent, all transactions of all people are recorded on the chain.

Some people have found that the longer an address holds coins and the more coins it holds, the more impact it will have on the market once they start to move. For example, if the US confiscation addresses or Satoshi Nakamoto's addresses transfer a little bit of coins, BTC will instantly plummet by 7% or even more.

At night, 2,000 BTC were transferred from the Silk Road address in the United States, and the mainstream market fell sharply in response.

Silk Road is the 69,000 BTC seized by the United States from hackers 20 years ago. In March last year, the United States sold BTC worth 300 million, and then BTC plummeted by 7%.

At the beginning of this year, the United States planned to sell 2,000 BTC, but did not specify the specific time of the sale, so this round of address changes caused a lot of panic on the outside world.

The United States has used seizures and other means to accumulate huge amounts of BTC. Currently, the United States holds 200,000 BTC, accounting for 1% of the circulating supply.

Not only that, the United States firmly controls spot ETFs, CME, and Grayscale. The pricing power of BTC has also completely shifted from Asia to the United States. You can focus on the changes in Silk Road addresses.

Yesterday I was chatting about U, and a friend asked if there were any indicators to observe how U controls the market.

The liquidity of the market can be judged by the circulating market value of USDC.

It can be seen that USDC had three major issuances in the first half of the year, corresponding to three major increases, namely at the end of January, the end of February and the beginning of March.




USDC is a stable currency controlled by the United States. American institutions cannot buy U, but they can buy and sell USDC. Therefore, USDC can better judge the intention of institutions. The circulation of USDC has been flat in the past two days, indicating that it is still in the stock market.
Only when USDC is issued significantly and new funds enter the market, will the small coins explode.

TEDA added 8,888 BTC in the early morning. As the Federal Reserve in the industry, TEDA’s every move has attracted much attention. The last time it added 8,888 BTC, the market has ushered in a new trend.



When B.com was founded and Tether issued U, no one was optimistic about stablecoins like U. Everyone believed more in the value of BTC. It didn't sound very reliable to exchange the money in your hand with a virtual coin at a 1:1 ratio.

In 2015-17, BTC was used to trade futures. When the price went up, the value of the collateral was higher, the leverage was higher, and the profit was doubled. This led to very extreme market conditions, either rising or falling.

Until more and more people use u to trade BTC, credit continues to accumulate, and Tether can make a lot of money just by charging handling fees. More importantly, Tether can control the issuance of u, and then affect the market. For example, the most obvious example was at the end of October 2018, when the Americans froze Tether’s bank account and everyone exchanged their u for mainstream currencies such as BTC. Within a dozen minutes, BTC soared 20%, and then plummeted. Safe-haven funds withdrew frantically, forming the big bear market in 2018.

Tomorrow is the largest delivery in BTC history of US$11 billion. We can see that the quarterly delivery is over and new trends tend to emerge. Is the thousand-point market coming again?



Before 2017, when perpetuals had not yet appeared, the market mainly traded quarterly futures. The principles of quarterly and perpetual were very different. Quarterly was delivered every three months according to the spot price, while perpetual was several The hourly subsidy rate means that quarterly prices tend to be more extreme and are much different from spot prices. Many people can tell which side of the long-short side big funds prefer through the price difference between quarterly and spot prices.