LIVEMate老陈
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🧣博:Mate老陈，公众号：Mate加密老陈，推：ET老陈同步更新，味新：lc00251，一起把握这轮最疯狂的牛市！
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Crazy drop last night! No one knows why the market fell despite the positive non-farm data...
Why did the non-agricultural data last night look good, but the US stock market and BTC both fell? To be honest, I have searched for a lot of channels and information, and spent a lot of time but couldn’t find it. But I can say something more intuitive. It’s not just the US stock market and BTC that have fallen, but the US Treasury bonds have also fallen across the board, with the one-year, two-year, and three-year US Treasury bonds falling by more than 2%.
The US dollar index is rising, while gold and oil are falling. Seeing these data, my immediate feeling is "risk aversion". The decline of US bonds shows that a large amount of funds have begun to flow into US bonds. From this perspective, investors should be extremely panicked about the interest rate cut, and they should think that the interest rate cut is the key to the decline of the risk market.
The US dollar index is rising, while gold and oil are falling. Seeing these data, my immediate feeling is "risk aversion". The decline of US bonds shows that a large amount of funds have begun to flow into US bonds. From this perspective, investors should be extremely panicked about the interest rate cut, and they should think that the interest rate cut is the key to the decline of the risk market.
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Bitcoin prices continued to fall, sliding below $56,000, mainly due to growing concerns about a recession.
Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also fell sharply, especially Aptos tokens, which were affected by the upcoming unlock.
And cryptocurrency-related stocks, such as Coinbase, also fell to a seven-month low due to market pressure.
Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies also fell sharply, especially Aptos tokens, which were affected by the upcoming unlock.
And cryptocurrency-related stocks, such as Coinbase, also fell to a seven-month low due to market pressure.
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The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and the contract liquidation strength varies! Tonight's non-agricultural data may be the key!
There will be non-agricultural data tonight, please pay attention to short-term fluctuations. I looked at a lot of data this morning. Combined with the market, I would like to talk about the current trend expectations. First of all, the price has been falling recently and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The big cake is fluctuating back and forth and falling. The harvesting contract has caused the spot cottage to be very poor. Many people have begun to change their thinking and chase short contracts. Or high leverage for volatility, which is also the thinking that the current dealers need to cultivate.
A few days ago, I analyzed the main data of the big B network. From the current point of view, combined with the 24-hour and 7-day contract liquidation charts, and some altcoins in the market have shown some resistance to falling. I think this is a short-term turning point, so don't chase the shorts.
A few days ago, I analyzed the main data of the big B network. From the current point of view, combined with the 24-hour and 7-day contract liquidation charts, and some altcoins in the market have shown some resistance to falling. I think this is a short-term turning point, so don't chase the shorts.
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What will happen to the Huamen market next? Will September provide a chance to buy at the bottom of the Huangjinkeng market?
Huamen stock market fell below 57,000 again. Interest rate cut is coming in September. What will happen next?
Let’s first look at the URPD data of BTC, as follows
K-line trend Since the rise on August 8, the market has not fallen below 55,600. It recovered the lost ground last night but opened the door again today.
Tonight PMI, tomorrow unemployment rate (previous value 4.3, expected 4.2, less than 4.3 is the best, boosting sentiment, increasing expectations of a rate cut of 25% this month, currently a rate cut of 25% in September is 55%, source CME), non-farm, then the 9.10 election debate, let's see what Harris and Trump say about encryption, and Harris's proposition. Can it boost sentiment for BTC, and then there will be next week's CPI data, the interest rate meeting at 9.19 in the early morning. The above various influences on market sentiment in between
Let’s first look at the URPD data of BTC, as follows
K-line trend Since the rise on August 8, the market has not fallen below 55,600. It recovered the lost ground last night but opened the door again today.
Tonight PMI, tomorrow unemployment rate (previous value 4.3, expected 4.2, less than 4.3 is the best, boosting sentiment, increasing expectations of a rate cut of 25% this month, currently a rate cut of 25% in September is 55%, source CME), non-farm, then the 9.10 election debate, let's see what Harris and Trump say about encryption, and Harris's proposition. Can it boost sentiment for BTC, and then there will be next week's CPI data, the interest rate meeting at 9.19 in the early morning. The above various influences on market sentiment in between
See original
I used to think that Mr. Lu Xun's "There are two trees in front of my house, one is a jujube tree, and the other is also a jujube tree"
was just a way to make up the word count. Isn't this nonsense?
Recently, I substituted this sentence pattern into "There are two coins in my account, one is red, and the other is also red"
I immediately understood it, and the atmosphere of compassion came out at once
As expected of a great writer, it seems that Mr. Lu Xun is justified in being called a great modern writer
was just a way to make up the word count. Isn't this nonsense?
Recently, I substituted this sentence pattern into "There are two coins in my account, one is red, and the other is also red"
I immediately understood it, and the atmosphere of compassion came out at once
As expected of a great writer, it seems that Mr. Lu Xun is justified in being called a great modern writer
See original
There is chaos everywhere in the financial sector, and bigger storms are yet to come!
September started with a bang. The biggest risk in September is September itself, which is traditionally the worst performing month for stocks, bonds, gold and Bitcoin.
Since the Bank of Japan said that it would still consider raising interest rates if necessary, the market has actually returned to the sentiment at the beginning of August.
The Japanese yen carry trade arbitrage funds that started in 2022 completed the liquidation of at least half of the funds on August 5. The remaining half is betting that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates again, and the opening position is relatively advantageous.
Now this statement has begun to ferment, causing the Nikkei index to fall. I suggest you pay attention to it.
Since the Bank of Japan said that it would still consider raising interest rates if necessary, the market has actually returned to the sentiment at the beginning of August.
The Japanese yen carry trade arbitrage funds that started in 2022 completed the liquidation of at least half of the funds on August 5. The remaining half is betting that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates again, and the opening position is relatively advantageous.
Now this statement has begun to ferment, causing the Nikkei index to fall. I suggest you pay attention to it.
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Can this week's non-farm data reverse the negative trend? Why should we start looking for opportunities to build positions?
The price rebounded yesterday, but it is only a rebound at present, not a reversal, so the big market trend has not changed, but the structure needs to be redefined.
Expand the range of fluctuations, and the lower edge can focus on 57000 (yesterday's low/4H cycle potential support/liquidation peak)
This is the price point where the big and small cycles resonate. If the price falls below this point again, we will still consider shorting on the right side.
The upper side of the shock will focus on 60000 61200. The technical level just verifies the previous high point.
It is also the peak of short liquidation. If the price weakens near these prices (obtaining liquidity), it will be a good opportunity to arrange shorts on the left side.
Expand the range of fluctuations, and the lower edge can focus on 57000 (yesterday's low/4H cycle potential support/liquidation peak)
This is the price point where the big and small cycles resonate. If the price falls below this point again, we will still consider shorting on the right side.
The upper side of the shock will focus on 60000 61200. The technical level just verifies the previous high point.
It is also the peak of short liquidation. If the price weakens near these prices (obtaining liquidity), it will be a good opportunity to arrange shorts on the left side.
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How will the market react if a rate cut is confirmed in September? Bet on long or short?
After the high-level shock, Bitcoin continued to fall over the weekend, and then the pessimistic mood continued to spread. The fear and greed index dropped to 26, a significant drop from last week's 55. Such emotions appeared because everyone was worried about liquidity issues. After ICO and VC, everyone began to embrace the pvp model meme. Then, when the meme performed poorly recently, everyone was even more pessimistic. At the macro level, they were worried about the US economic recession, and at the micro level, they were worried that the industry would not innovate and could not continue to bring growth.
Although panic is spreading, if you look at the whales on the chain, you will know that they are not selling, but continue to buy. Every time there is general fear in the market, it is often accompanied by opportunities.
Although panic is spreading, if you look at the whales on the chain, you will know that they are not selling, but continue to buy. Every time there is general fear in the market, it is often accompanied by opportunities.
See original
Many people want to wait for 312 and 519, but it is actually quite difficult, especially since the market is much more mature than a few years ago. I understand that everyone wants to achieve everything in one go, but the fact is that the biggest drop in the single day of FTX’s explosion in the past few years is less than 20%. History is worth learning from, but we must respect objective facts. In fact, I think compliance is also one of the reasons for the current trend of Bitcoin. There are gains and losses. As for the copycats, we can only say that the return to value is not broken, but established. Those who still hold on to the classical idea of speculating on coins and don’t know how to adapt should be dead this year.
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Falling at the beginning of September? On the eve of the Fed’s announcement, the cryptocurrency world is on high alert!
This year's market conditions are colder than in 2021, 2022, and 2023
It can be felt from the activity on the chain
Gas has never been so low
Although 2021 was a year of transition from bull to bear, at least the activity was very high, and many people still participated in various projects.
Although the market has hit bottom in 2022, everyone is full of hope. The concept of web3 has brought about a good wave of enthusiasm. Whether it is for profit or investment, you can get a good return in 2022.
In 2023, first there was the ARB airdrop, then Pepe Aidoge and other local dogs led a wave of airdrops. Various new projects sprang up like mushrooms after rain, and the number of online investors reached its peak. Any well-known project had millions of addresses participating.
It can be felt from the activity on the chain
Gas has never been so low
Although 2021 was a year of transition from bull to bear, at least the activity was very high, and many people still participated in various projects.
Although the market has hit bottom in 2022, everyone is full of hope. The concept of web3 has brought about a good wave of enthusiasm. Whether it is for profit or investment, you can get a good return in 2022.
In 2023, first there was the ARB airdrop, then Pepe Aidoge and other local dogs led a wave of airdrops. Various new projects sprang up like mushrooms after rain, and the number of online investors reached its peak. Any well-known project had millions of addresses participating.
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Judging from the mining cost, 50,000 yuan is enough to go all in! How to correctly grasp the wealth in the cryptocurrency circle?
Today a fan asked me whether low computing power often means that the BTC price is close to the bottom. Is this view valid?
In fact, the cost of Bitcoin has long been made public
Why are there still people saying they want to go for 30,000 or 40,000?
The data I got before was also 52,000 with 85% normal distribution.
Indeed, some people can achieve a cost of 40,000 or even less.
Let me briefly talk about how we can achieve such low cost:
First of all, electricity is almost free, which is the big part (such as reserve electricity, military electricity, photovoltaic power, and own hydropower stations - indirectly triggering the 519 disaster day)
Secondly, the machine can even be free, such as a machine stolen from a small country in the Middle East/South Asia/Stan.
In fact, the cost of Bitcoin has long been made public
Why are there still people saying they want to go for 30,000 or 40,000?
The data I got before was also 52,000 with 85% normal distribution.
Indeed, some people can achieve a cost of 40,000 or even less.
Let me briefly talk about how we can achieve such low cost:
First of all, electricity is almost free, which is the big part (such as reserve electricity, military electricity, photovoltaic power, and own hydropower stations - indirectly triggering the 519 disaster day)
Secondly, the machine can even be free, such as a machine stolen from a small country in the Middle East/South Asia/Stan.
See original
September is a critical month, be prepared for increased volatility!
Bitcoin is still fluctuating widely. It rebounded after getting support near 58,000 yesterday, reaching a high of around 61,000, and then began to plunge again in the early morning, directly hitting around 58,800. These market trends have been dominated by foreigners. During this period, they have been constantly pulling up and smashing the market. It is indeed a bit disgusting so far to clean up the market in this way. When most people are desperate about the future market, the market will come.
Stay optimistic, stay away from leverage, and hold spot
Remember, don’t hold all your positions at any time. As long as you hold all your positions, especially if you hold all your positions in a copycat, your mentality will most likely be distorted.
Stay optimistic, stay away from leverage, and hold spot
Remember, don’t hold all your positions at any time. As long as you hold all your positions, especially if you hold all your positions in a copycat, your mentality will most likely be distorted.
See original
Bitcoin once dropped to $58,000. As the September curse comes, the cryptocurrency market may fall again!
Financial markets are more likely to fall in September
On the other hand, based on the performance of the Nasdaq index in the past decade (2014 to 2023), there were 8 declines in September, with a probability of decline of up to 80%. Since there is a certain degree of correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks, they may also be affected.
Let's take a closer look at Bitcoin's monthly return rate and find that in the past 11 years (2013 to 2023), Bitcoin also performed poorly in September, with 8 declines and a probability of decline of 73%. In addition, from the average monthly return rate, September is the month with the largest decline, with a decline of 4.78%.
On the other hand, based on the performance of the Nasdaq index in the past decade (2014 to 2023), there were 8 declines in September, with a probability of decline of up to 80%. Since there is a certain degree of correlation between cryptocurrencies and US stocks, they may also be affected.
Let's take a closer look at Bitcoin's monthly return rate and find that in the past 11 years (2013 to 2023), Bitcoin also performed poorly in September, with 8 declines and a probability of decline of 73%. In addition, from the average monthly return rate, September is the month with the largest decline, with a decline of 4.78%.
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Bitcoin suddenly leaked in the middle of the night. What happened in the cryptocurrency circle recently?
Bitcoin plunged rapidly after 5 a.m. this morning. At 06:15, it once hit $58,000, hitting its lowest point in nearly ten days. Ethereum also once fell below $2,400. In the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $316 million.
The price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, and quickly plunged after 5 a.m. today (28), reaching $58,000 at 06:15 a.m., the lowest in nearly ten days.
It seems that we are still preparing for a second bottoming out.
The reason for the crash?
There is no need to find a reason for the decline. If you must find one, it is ARKB. The fund has the largest net outflow in history.
At present, the fund flows of the 12 US Bitcoin spot ETFs on the 27th have not yet been fully released, but it is worth noting that ARK & 21Shares' ARKB outflow exceeded US$100 million, setting a record for the largest outflow in the history of the fund.
The price of Bitcoin continued to fluctuate downward yesterday, and quickly plunged after 5 a.m. today (28), reaching $58,000 at 06:15 a.m., the lowest in nearly ten days.
It seems that we are still preparing for a second bottoming out.
The reason for the crash?
There is no need to find a reason for the decline. If you must find one, it is ARKB. The fund has the largest net outflow in history.
At present, the fund flows of the 12 US Bitcoin spot ETFs on the 27th have not yet been fully released, but it is worth noting that ARK & 21Shares' ARKB outflow exceeded US$100 million, setting a record for the largest outflow in the history of the fund.
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The big cake continues to fall in the correction. Squatting down is only to jump higher.
When we published the article yesterday, we analyzed that the 4-hour level is in a downward trend, and the 12-hour decline has just begun, so it is inevitable that it will continue to fall. As for where the decline will stop, we can only wait and see, but it can be said that the diamond bottom is around 42,000. If you see it, you can buy it without thinking.
An interesting discovery is that although the technical indicators are bearish in the past two days, the two big declines began to smash the market after the US stock market closed, that is, the Americans themselves smashed it. Why did they choose to smash the market after the US stock market closed? This is a bit of a conspiracy. During the opening of the US stock market, there is a Bitcoin ETF to provide market-making funds, and the liquidity is good. The dealer does not ship at this time, but only ships and smashes the market when the US stock market is closed. The dealer does not like to ship at a high price? He is not stupid. The only reasonable explanation is that it is malicious to smash the market, explode the bulls, and get some people off the car. The car is lighter and can run faster and more stable.
Today's market analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour level has stopped falling. If the lower shadow line 58000 does not fall again, it will be confirmed as the short-term bottom. The 4-hour and 12-hour levels are in a downward trend. The daily level has just entered a downward trend, and the intraday high-altitude is the main. The intraday pressure level is 62000 and the support level is 56200
When we published the article yesterday, we analyzed that the 4-hour level is in a downward trend, and the 12-hour decline has just begun, so it is inevitable that it will continue to fall. As for where the decline will stop, we can only wait and see, but it can be said that the diamond bottom is around 42,000. If you see it, you can buy it without thinking.
An interesting discovery is that although the technical indicators are bearish in the past two days, the two big declines began to smash the market after the US stock market closed, that is, the Americans themselves smashed it. Why did they choose to smash the market after the US stock market closed? This is a bit of a conspiracy. During the opening of the US stock market, there is a Bitcoin ETF to provide market-making funds, and the liquidity is good. The dealer does not ship at this time, but only ships and smashes the market when the US stock market is closed. The dealer does not like to ship at a high price? He is not stupid. The only reasonable explanation is that it is malicious to smash the market, explode the bulls, and get some people off the car. The car is lighter and can run faster and more stable.
Today's market analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour level has stopped falling. If the lower shadow line 58000 does not fall again, it will be confirmed as the short-term bottom. The 4-hour and 12-hour levels are in a downward trend. The daily level has just entered a downward trend, and the intraday high-altitude is the main. The intraday pressure level is 62000 and the support level is 56200
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Bitcoin failed to break through 65,000 twice, what will happen next? Will it really rise in September?
After two failed attempts to break through 65,000, what’s next?
Since August 23, the 65,000 level has not been broken for several days. Powell made it clear in his speech on the 23rd that the interest rate cut would be in place. In the absence of market makers last weekend, it was useless to break through 65,000 and hold steady.
Next, let's see if the sentiment can further stimulate the breakthrough after the US stock market opens tonight. Then continue to pay attention to the annualized revised GDP value in the second quarter this week.
Even if it breaks through, there are still 66,500 and 67,200. Currently it is hovering around 63,000.
Judging from the current situation, the price may continue to fall. Judging from the K-line, I think the most critical bottom support will be around 61,800, and it is very likely to continue to pull back to this position.
Since August 23, the 65,000 level has not been broken for several days. Powell made it clear in his speech on the 23rd that the interest rate cut would be in place. In the absence of market makers last weekend, it was useless to break through 65,000 and hold steady.
Next, let's see if the sentiment can further stimulate the breakthrough after the US stock market opens tonight. Then continue to pay attention to the annualized revised GDP value in the second quarter this week.
Even if it breaks through, there are still 66,500 and 67,200. Currently it is hovering around 63,000.
Judging from the current situation, the price may continue to fall. Judging from the K-line, I think the most critical bottom support will be around 61,800, and it is very likely to continue to pull back to this position.
