Many people feel that BTC has risen too quickly in recent days, soaring to 80,000, as many expected the 80,000 mark to take a couple of months, but it arrived in just a week.

In the first half of the year, I repeatedly emphasized the characteristics of this bull market: 1 is that it rises without looking back, focusing on being light and easy to pull, making you hesitant to get on board; 2 is that it moves sideways in a cruel manner, neither going up nor down, focusing on torment, making it difficult for you to go long or short.

Currently, from the perspective of the slope of the moving averages, it is indeed very high, and there is a demand for consolidation or pullback for repair. However, having demand does not mean that it must be met. Right now, the big pie has completed a bullish trend resonance from small levels to large levels, and to disrupt this resonance, it has to be destroyed step by step from small levels to large levels, and it is clear that the current bears do not possess such power.

Today's Fan Q&A:
What price point is suitable to enter Dogecoin?
The bottom of the fluctuation range is around 34, you can pay attention to it.
How about Sui?
Quite strong, 3.9-4.2 is the support level for an upward trend.
Can I enter pengu?
The market cap is relatively high now, you can participate in the short term, there is a demand for a small upward movement.
Should I continue to hold pepe?
The meme sector, including the entire market, is adjusting; if you are optimistic, you can continue to hold.
How about xlm, entered at 0.5?
0.47 here looks like the daily second high point; in the short term, I suggest setting a stop loss.
Can I get into vana?
Not recommended for short-term participation! Wait for stabilization.
How is not?
Still okay, overall following the market in the Telegram ecosystem.
Chr plummeted, how to view the follow-up?
Not considered a crash, currently near the support level, wait for the interest rate meeting to pass.
How will the trend be after the rate cut is announced?
It has been declining for a week, after the interest rate meeting, there is likely to be a rebound trend; overall, this month is mainly about fluctuating and washing out positions.

Bitcoin just won't drop, altcoins just won't rise, could it be that we've really experienced a fake bull market?

The excessive issuance of altcoins, random releases, the locked positions during the overall rise, and the wealth creation effect on-chain have drained all the liquidity!!!
We can see that even newly launched coins recently basically no longer have profit-making effects.

Once they are launched, they just keep falling, which is enough to demonstrate that the liquidity in the market is no longer there. At this point, if Bitcoin experiences a pullback, it means a complete loss of funds in the market.

That being said, even if Bitcoin continues to rise and breaks 110,000,

small coins will still be in this half-dead state. For small coins to have any prospects, there must be external funds intervening or

the funds previously trapped in large market cap coins like DOGE, XRP, ETH must flow out again. If these don't rise, altcoins are unlikely to show improvement.

In the future, when BTC pulls back, ETH may appear slightly stronger compared to other coins. A few days ago, ETH just broke this year's new high, and it is less than 20% away from its historical high. In the next phase, when Bitcoin stabilizes, it may be Ethereum's time to shine.

Don't forget, Trump's cryptocurrency fund's largest holding is not Bitcoin but ETH, so don't doubt this certainty.
Pullbacks are for better rises, just hold on tightly!

At 3 AM tonight, the CPI interest rate meeting will take place. According to predictions, currently 97.1% believe there will be a 25 basis point rate cut, with the current interest rate at 4.75%, reducing to 4.5%.
This rate cut is a positive factor for the crypto market, but everyone has already traded on this positive news in advance and predicts that the rate cuts may pause in January, so they might also be trading in advance based on January's predicted results. Of course, the actual results have not been released yet, and we should rely on the actual outcomes.
In the market, aside from Bitcoin continuously reaching new highs, only a few popular cryptocurrencies have seen capital intervention to drive prices up, while most altcoins are struggling to survive, which is very difficult to navigate. It's uncertain when this situation will improve.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis for December 18: BTC, ETH Highlights Today
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC once again broke new highs, reaching above 108,000, in line with expectations. It has now begun to pull back, with the upward momentum over 4 hours decreasing. It is expected to consolidate for the next 1-2 days, and after adjustment, it may rise again. Observing today, waiting for stabilization. This week, it still has the potential to reach the 110,000-115,000 range. Ethereum did not follow BTC's rise and is undergoing a pullback consolidation. Observing during the day, temporarily inactive, waiting for stabilization. Altcoins are not performing very well, with most coins undergoing pullback consolidation, lacking liquidity. Observing during the day, waiting for stabilization. For coins already held, SATS should be held patiently; consider liquidating around 50. FTM can be liquidated and reconsidered later. POLYX can be held, and ACT should be maintained.
Today's Highlights:
BTC: 1-hour and 4-hour levels returning to healthy levels, daily level above healthy levels, expecting consolidation for the day, observing and waiting. The support below is 102,500-103,000, and the resistance above is 105,500-106,000.
ETH: 1-hour and 4-hour levels below healthy levels, daily level returning to healthy levels, expecting consolidation for the day, observing and waiting. The support below is 3,750-3,800, and the resistance above is 3,900-3,950.

This month's 4 major predictions for the counterfeit market:

1. At the beginning of the month, the prediction is that most counterfeits are deviating too far from the 120-day moving average, resulting in a significant divergence rate, creating a demand for a pullback to the 120-day moving average. A sharp decline in the market is expected soon!

2. After the sharp decline, I predict a death cross on the daily chart leading to a short squeeze rebound, but with reduced positions! There has been a pullback again in the last two days!

3. Fluctuating market in late December

4. Next, we will verify the 4th prediction of T God: Buy more as the price drops around New Year's Day on January 1, 2025!

Positioning is very important! Never go all in; always keep some 'bullets' in hand to respond promptly to market changes.

Think about position management and your trading mindset. Give yourself a positioning and be clear about what you want.

For short-term trading, refer to the selling point near the resistance level. If it goes up, don’t regret it; you were originally a short-term participant, so just move on to the next opportunity. If you hesitate to sell when it rises, thinking about holding for the long term, but then want to trade short when it drops, this mindset will only torment you.

If you are a long-term player looking to hold, don’t be afraid of mid-course pullbacks. Focus on the results, not the process, and of course, you must endure a 50% or even 100% drawdown. The entire bull market consists of continuous pullbacks followed by rises, with an oscillating upward rhythm. For those trading in waves, you can reduce your position when it rises, but after reducing, if the price pulls back, you must buy back to avoid missing out and chasing the highs.

Short-term FOMO scenarios that can make money: Entering early, running fast, and controlling your hands.
Entering early: You can discover the value of this asset earlier than most of the market, with high sensitivity and judgment skills.
Running fast: You can identify peak risks more quickly and exit in time; the ability to control greed.
Controlling your hands: You can refrain from arbitrary actions; when you're on a high, you want to buy everything; extreme position management and risk management skills.
Those who possess all three abilities are definitely in the minority in the market.

Let's popularize a less-known trading track:

Many novice traders do not understand why, after BTC rises, other altcoins fall. The rise of Bitcoin seems to suck away the value, and many people do not understand what this means! Please consult the following content:

BTC is the leader in the cryptocurrency space, the big brother, which leads to many trading pairs like BTC/ETH, BTC/ADA, DOGE/BTC, TON/BTC, SOL/BTC, PEPE/BTC, BNB/BTC, and many other altcoins paired with Bitcoin!

Those who pay attention will notice that recently a lot of USDT has been issued, but when Bitcoin broke new highs, the trading volume of Bitcoin's USDT was not very high, meaning it has been rising without volume. But where does this non-volume rise in buying come from? It appears in these BTC/altcoin trading pairs!!!

Normally, buying coins is done using USDT for trading. Recently, many market makers and institutions have adopted a model where they use altcoins/BTC, essentially exchanging altcoins directly for Bitcoin. For altcoins, this means they are being sold, leading to selling pressure. This is why recently, whenever BTC rises, altcoins fall; the selling pressure on altcoins is here. Then, when BTC rises again, they exchange BTC/altcoins back!

After such back-and-forth operations, the amount of coins in the hands of market makers and institutions will increase in USDT. In the process, they will also add some leverage to expand the return on investment!

Select high-quality replicas, which can be considered from multiple aspects

Popular sectors like public chains, MEME, AI, gaming, L2, DEFI, etc., have different performances among projects in the same sector

Taking MEME as an example, while people, doge, and floki are veterans, people has a small increase, while doge and floki surged wildly

The reasons are as follows:
Firstly, the narrative, as Doge gained attention from Musk's mention, leading to traffic and capital injection that caused speculation and price increase;
Secondly, the project community team’s operations, actively creating narratives or advancing on the process, such as expanding to other platforms after going on BN;
Thirdly, strong market maker support. Not all public chains are worth investing in, as sol and inj have survived and reached new highs since the last cycle, while others differ.

Additionally, there are factors from the investment team, such as sol, inj, sui, apt, omni, alt, etc., which are backed by the globally influential forex market maker JUMP, as evidenced by their increase.

Investing in cryptocurrencies should be rational; the market and the preference of large funds are key, do not get self-sentimental.

When choosing cryptocurrencies, we often feel that only the safest ones are worth investing in, but the result is often that those we consider the safest have the smallest gains, while those that seem risky rise the fastest.

Now let's take a look at these cryptocurrencies:

WLD - The future world's largest AI sector leader;
ONDO - The leader of the RWA sector;
XRP - The most widely used payment system in the future;
PEPE - The leader of animal-themed frogs;
MEW - The leader of animal-themed cats, aiming to overthrow the dominance of animal-themed dogs;
Neiro - The potential currency for the new era of animal-themed dogs;
BAN - The once-popular banana artwork;
GONO - The potential golden dog of the AIMEME series;
STX - The leader of the BTC ecosystem;
SUI - The ecosystem that has rapidly risen in the short term.

Every bull market starts with Bitcoin rising first, then the old mainstream that has been washed for 3 years follows, and the brokerage platform tokens also rise first, followed by the mainstream narrative altcoins. The common characteristics of high-multiplying dark horse coins are public chains, new coins, new narratives, high control by operators, prestigious listings/investment backgrounds, and relatively low market capitalization, all of which are plus points.

Investment should be logical and systematic. You need to know who you are, your capability circle, where you are, and where you are going. The market continues to rise, and the popularity of altcoins has been somewhat drained, with some retail investors laughing maniacally as if they are possessed. Don't deceive yourself; there is no altcoin season. The ones who should be laughed at the most should be yourself.

I really think that all the copycats are at the bottom now. The climax of the bull market has not yet arrived. Now is just brewing emotions. Only those who have experienced the bull market can understand. A general increase of 20% to 30% can last for several days. The value of the position is faster than your home meter. We don’t need to do anything. Just take the spot and hold the position. Wait for the bull market to recharge you.

This week is crucial, as it is the last week for the release of macroeconomic data for this year, with key indicators being unveiled one after another:
On Tuesday, retail sales data will be released, which is essential for assessing the health of the consumer market.
On Wednesday, the market will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting, which will convene as scheduled, accompanied by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) resolution. This meeting is very likely to bring significant volatility to the market, necessitating close attention to its policy direction and economic outlook.
On Thursday, GDP data will be released, providing us with a comprehensive view of the overall economic condition. Additionally, the monetary decisions of the Bank of Japan and the British pound will also be announced, all of which will have a significant impact on the global market.
On Friday, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price data will be released, which is one of the key indicators for measuring inflation levels in the United States.
As the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, market volatility may significantly increase.
In the same week, we should not be surprised to see the Bitcoin at 110,000 and 90,000!

The current market at the end of the year is much more difficult than the one from last year to the beginning of this year. At that time, the main lines were relatively clear. The first wave was the Bitcoin ecosystem. Holding onto the leading coin ordi was sufficient, rising from 2.7 to a peak of 96, a maximum of 36 times. The second wave saw the focus shift to Bitcoin's second layer. At that time, there was only one target, ckb, which rose 10 times in just over a month. The third wave was the meme market, with pepe as the leader, rising 10 times in a month.

It is expected that this round of the cryptocurrency bull market will peak around Q3 or Q4 of 2025.

Since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged over 573%, and its price has increased by 130% so far this year. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, dominated by ETF and spot accumulation.

Historical data suggests that we are in the mid-cycle, and the market may peak around Q3 to Q4 of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024.

Due to institutional capital inflows, any corrections in 2025 will remain moderate. Historically, the year following a halving has seen the strongest rebounds, with the minimum price estimated to be $145,000 by mid-2025, and under favorable conditions, this price could climb to $200,000.

Today's Fan Q&A:
How is jto?
SOL ecology has good coins, this wave is considered strong, but the SOL to Bitcoin exchange rate is not very good, and the MEME on top is not too good either. It is recommended to wait a bit and hold it for the long term; there should be no problem.
How much do you see STRK? Can it be held for the long term? What is its potential?
Take it according to the cycle, see if Auntie breaks the historical high, ride the main wave up, and then sell it, similar to how Bitcoin broke 7.4 and surged to 100,000 in that wave.
Is there a chance for ARB?
This coin is fast, the pump is on the way.
How about ban?
Banana is about done, but we need to wait for a four-hour pattern to consolidate before discussing it; there is not much downward space left.
Does Pixel have potential?
Game coins have potential, but the position cannot be too large.
Can pnut drop further? It has been consolidating for a month.
If it drops below 1.0, it will need to wash down further; the load is too heavy, so don't expect it to rise in the short term.
When will the meme market start?
You can keep an eye on a few major ones like WIF, Pepe, etc., once they adjust. Currently, it has already adjusted for over a month.
Will Bitcoin drop to the 8s again? Can altcoins explode by the end of December, or will it have to wait until after New Year's?
I don't see it in the short term; it's hard to say if altcoins will explode. It’s possible that they have already adjusted properly, or it could be a downside continuation. I still don’t see it because there are no leading sectors or valuable coins emerging, and instead, there is endless decline.
If Bitcoin has a major correction, will it be the last drop for altcoins?
Altcoins have already started to adjust imperceptibly, especially the MEME sector; it is very likely.