Historically, almost every time the 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond interest rates inverted and returned to normal, the US stock market would reach a short-term peak within 3 to 6 months.
Combined with the fact that the rise of SPY in the past six months has been accelerating, I subjectively believe that the US stock market will definitely return to the mean during the interest rate cut.
If estimated based on 3 to 6 months, the peak may be mid-December to February next year.
So before December may be the window period for the rise of the cryptocurrency market.
But I personally do not have too high expectations for the market of the cryptocurrency market.

What is the most critical point for a novice to turn the tables?

The answer is: you can attack when you advance and defend when you retreat. This is crucial in the trading logic of a novice. When you make a correct judgment, you should allocate positions reasonably to maximize your profits; when you make a wrong judgment, you need to effectively control risks to reduce losses. Unfortunately, many novices tend to only focus on offensive plans and ignore defensive strategies.

They put all their hopes on a certain or next transaction, hoping to recover their previous losses in one fell swoop. However, this kind of thinking often leads to the gambler mentality, making them overly dependent on luck to make money.
The real trading logic emphasizes tight settings and plans. Before buying, you should be clear about why you choose to buy at this time, as well as the strategies for adding positions and stop losses after buying. You must make good offensive and defensive plans to ensure that you lose less when you are wrong and make more when you are right. Only in this way can you achieve a turnaround.

Spot can be initially profit-taking

My understanding
The probability of the market remaining volatile is 30%
The probability of a trend is 70%

1. Start adjusting the position of the volatile part now
(Some volatile indicators have begun to report the top)

2. From the perspective of trend, there is no obvious decline at this time
(overlapping head and shoulders bottom, breaking through the downward trend line perspective)
You can look for a reversal near 670

But if you are not on the car
You want to go short
Then it will be more difficult

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is about to surge

CryptoQuant data shows that the 30-day change in the supply of short-term holders (STH) of Bitcoin has fallen to the lowest point since 2012.

And basically all of this supply has flowed into the hands of long-term holders (LTH).

This shows that the floating supply of Bitcoin has been exhausted and the market has completed preparations for a surge.

From the perspective of the market development stage and the market supply and demand situation, the current situation is similar to the situation before the last surge of Bitcoin in September 2013 and July 2021.

The surge is coming!

Is it really necessary to exchange the altcoins in your hands for BTC?

Personally, I think that if you have a large amount of U and are a long-term player, then there is no problem for you to make a layout of Bitcoin, and the short-term rise and fall will not have any impact, because the general trend is going in that direction, but at the same time there is also a problem, that is, how much can BTC reach in this round of bull market, will it be 100,000 or double? Personally, I expect that doubling is already a very ideal state.

The reasons for losing money in contracts mentioned before!
Looking back now, it is still classic. People always have a gambling nature when playing contracts. Once your gambling nature becomes bigger and your gambling addiction becomes stronger!
Then you will lose money no matter how you play! Because you don’t leave when you make money, and you hold on to it when you lose money. Once the contract holds on to it, it will be liquidated! ! !
Recently, the BTC ETH SOL SUI contract liquidated all the people who held on to it! ! ! They thought it would fall, but sometimes it’s just so coincidental that after your order is liquidated, it will start to pull back! ! ! There is no need to complain, there is no strict stop loss for contracts! ! ! Liquidation is your final destination!

FB can open a long position:
Reasons for opening a position:
1. The bottom volume has increased, and there are market makers supporting the bottom and making the market.
2. The downward trend line has been broken.

Why do some people reverse the value in a bear market
Bull markets are awesome
Because the right players are like this
Bull markets are chasing, betting on breakthroughs, killing indiscriminately, everyone is rushing
When a bear market calls an order, the dog dealer sees someone calling an order, everyone is gambling, someone provides liquidity, and smart money sells quickly.

Next, the altcoins you can pay attention to:
1.ONDO, with investments from Coinbase, Wall Street and BlackRock, is a leader in the RWA field.
2.WIF, the king of dog coins.
3.PENDLE, an interest rate swap tool, has a TVL of more than 4 billion US dollars, and its market value is still low. It is expected to break through 10 US dollars.
4.TON, created by Telegram founder Pavel Durov, has a huge user base.
5.FET, the leader of the AI ​​sector.
6.TIA, the leader of modularization, with strong fundamentals.
7.LPT, with a low market value, good fundamentals, and a strong investment institution behind it.
8.PYTH, the leader of the second-generation oracle, has a very strong increase.
9.SOL, the ecology is second only to ETH. Large funds see it as a fixed investment like ETH, and it is not a problem to see 500 in the bull market.
10.ORDI, the leader of the inscription sector, now is a good opportunity to buy at the bottom.

Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum Market on September 20: Today's Highlights of BTC and ETH
Market Review
Yesterday, BTC continued to rise, reaching the target range of 63,500-64,000, which was in line with yesterday's expectations. Today, we will take some defensive actions and appropriately reduce positions above 63,500. Continuous rises for many days require technical repairs. For example, if it stands above 63,000 today and there is no obvious sign of decline, we can follow up tomorrow. We will not follow up and wait and see during the day. The continuous rise strategy needs to be conservative and not aggressive. The two cakes will rise synchronously with BTC. The intraday operation can be synchronized with BTC. SATS can continue to be held. You can consider clearing positions around 50. PEOPLE can continue to hold in the medium term. Continue to wait
Today's highlights
BTC: 1-hour and 4-hour levels enter the overbought range, the daily level is higher than the healthy level, wait and see during the day, wait for stabilization, the expectation of the big cycle has not weakened, the daily support is 61700-62200, the upper resistance is 63800-64300
ETH: 1-hour and 4-hour levels are higher than the healthy level, the daily level is lower than the healthy level, pay attention to the trend of BTC, the current trend is still not strong, but it is expected to rise synchronously with BTC, but still pay attention to the correction after the opening of the US stock market, the upper resistance of the day is 2480-2530, the lower support of the day is 2330-2360#BTCReboundsAfterFOMC #TrumpFirstBTCUse

The 7 interest rate cut cycles of the US dollar:

1. In 1969, the largest decline of US stocks was -36%

2. In 1973, the largest decline was -48%

3. In 1981, the largest decline was -27%

4. In 2000, the largest decline was -51%

5. In 2007, the largest decline was -58%

6. In 2019, the largest decline was -35%

7. In 2024, ???

Five major mental misunderstandings in the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency circle

1. Over-panic about market declines
After years of experience in the cryptocurrency circle, every time the market fluctuates sharply, such as the dark moments of 94 and 312, or the mining purge in 21 years, I fall into extreme panic, as if the end of the world is coming.

2. Blindly follow others' operations
Seeing other people's decisions, blindly follow without analysis, lacking your own judgment and opinions.

3. Fantasy of getting rich overnight
Always expect to get huge wealth in the cryptocurrency circle instantly, without paying attention to long-term accumulation and stable investment strategies.

4. Disdain small fluctuations
Disdain small gains, but do not have enough funds to seize big opportunities.

5. Anxiety and restlessness all day long
Anxiety about the fluctuations of the cryptocurrency circle all day long, unable to concentrate on doing other meaningful things.

What is a small market value? In the current market situation, even if it is listed on a large exchange, it will be very tiring to pull 1 billion.

It is best to have a market value of tens of millions, a growth of dozens of times, and sufficient market gimmicks and wealth effects.
Small market value memes can create wealth effects, but lack continuous empowerment;

Large fdv projects have storytelling ability, but are not enough to support the already inflated market value.

Need a small market value meme, which is popular and can obtain continuous empowerment. This is the best choice.

BTC decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. What do you think of the subsequent market?

My personal opinion is that the interest rate cut roadmap determines the long-term market, but the short-term trend depends on local liquidity and the need for washing. Some people say that interest rate cuts will pull the market, while others say that because everyone thinks that interest rate cuts will pull the market, they will smash the market. Therefore, in short-term trading, try not to judge the positive or negative of financial data, and do not fomo, but treat it as a trading congestion/fomo period, which will catalyze volatility acceleration.

About the current market: BTC53000 has been rising. I remind everyone to buy more and buy more spot. Many people have become air forces at low points. I am one of the few bulls. In the short term, there may be small-level retracements at 62.2k, 65k, and 66k. The shape is an expanding wedge, and the trend is for reference.

No matter which school of technical analysis you use or whether you conduct macroeconomic analysis, you actually have the opportunity to make money. The real key is whether you can execute your trading logic mechanically and repeatedly.

This sounds simple, but it is difficult for most traders to do it.

Many traders are often distracted: they open orders according to indicators in the morning, follow group friends at noon, impulsively make an order at night, and can't help opening another order after reading the news from the Federal Reserve in the early morning. If you change four decision-making methods in one day, it would be strange if you don't lose money.

In fact, the most fatal thing in trading is not the complexity of the market, but the random change of strategies and lack of consistency.

I hope you can find your own strategy framework as soon as possible and conduct targeted deliberate training.

You should have a certain understanding of this interest rate cut! ! About the bear and bull market in the future

If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, will money flow into the market immediately? Definitely not. It takes several months from policy to implementation to landing!

So why is the big cake rising now? In fact, it is easy to understand. Because the market has this good expectation, it will rise a little, because there will be delicious buns to eat in a few months. The main reason is that there is still no money now, so it still can't pull it up! What will happen after it can't pull it up? It will definitely fall back?

Remember when the ETF was passed, it fell first and then slowly rose! The process of interest rate cut will be longer than ETF. The interest rate cut targets all industries. ETF is a precise big cake, so the timeliness is fast!

Understand it this way, the funds will not arrive until the end of next month or after November at the earliest! During this period, what will the big dealers do? Do whatever it takes and use all means to get you down!

The dot matrix chart expects a 50-75 basis point interest rate cut probability this year! Then this flow shows that there will be another crazy start in Q1 next year! The market rhythm starts in Q4 this year and reaches crazy in Q1 next year! We are still in Q3, so you know!

Lay out your chips, become a diamond player, and get out of trouble in half a year!

To make a summary or prediction (for reference only):
1. The violent bull market will come soon, don't ask me when, I only know SOON.
2. The total market value of altcoins is getting higher and higher, and it is irreversible.
3. There will definitely be altcoin season, altcoins will not rise generally, but the total market value of altcoins will continue to rise and it will be ATH.
4. Now is a bull market, not a bear market. Don't tell me how much the altcoin has fallen, altcoins are all air and have no reference value. It depends on the position of BTC.
5. By the end of 2025, the total market value of altcoins/cryptocurrencies will reach about 25%.
6. The altcoin will rebound in retaliation later, and the degree of FOMO will far exceed that of the beginning of 24.

Whether it is an extreme inducement or an extreme rebound, the market will definitely be extremely optimistic and positive, although my persistence or stubbornness is not recognized

Objectively speaking, I don’t think it will be a big reversal
In the past two months, except for the two-level reversal of BTC, most of the altcoins are very lame. You can review and see that there are very few altcoins with relatively good gains at the bottom of BTC at 52,500 in this round, such as FTM AAVE ZRO YGG and other currencies that have been mentioned before. The market situation still needs to be verified. Adhering to a concept, since it is not a bottom entry, then just wait and see normally, don’t be driven by market sentiment to chase in, how much room can there be?

If it is a bottom entry, it is understandable to be bullish. ETH has been falling all the way in the past two months. Look at the beginning of 2200 and 1, and the lowest is 2080 infinitely close. It has been said many times that ETH’s floating space is limited. It has fallen a lot. Now it is a sword hanging over BTC’s head, and it has always been at a very high position.