If the price $BTC this time increases to 71.5 - 72k
(with not too strong buying force)

Then I will short (x3)

Although most of my articles advise against using leverage, in this case I will use it, because it is easy to set SL.

Stop loss at 72.9k, if $BTC exceeds the mark, with x3 leverage, I lose about 5%.

What if it doesn't pass but turns to decrease?

Then the possibility of BTC falling in price by 10% (x3) or more is feasible. Because I've been rejected too many times.

This short order will have an expected risk/reward ratio of 1/6.

If you can short at that price, you should sit still and see if the candlesticks will pull their legs up immediately or not. If the recovery wave is weak, you should hold it longer.

Target price reduction >= 10%

Note: this is just sharing my personal opinions and plans, not trading advice!

🌈 Peaceful Trade rules for beginners

0. START SMALL. If you are new and have weak management and analysis abilities, the market will quickly swallow your money. Please deposit into the trading platform with a small amount of money to learn first, practice at least 200 orders. Always remember: You still have many opportunities to make money if you still have capital. Don't fall into the disease of 99% of newbies, delude yourself about your strength, and then lose a large amount of money.

1. Your idle money

Bring to the exchange what you are willing to lose (not all of your assets). Absolutely do not borrow, the pressure to pay interest will make you rush. In this market, the more impatient you are, the easier it is to lose.

2. Have time to wait patiently, not burdened with family spending responsibilities.

Income from trading is not stable, you cannot expect all living expenses from it. You need another, more stable source of income to live every day. 

3. Do not use leverage.

If you are a beginner, or someone who is not good at analysis, please do not touch the trap. Using leverage will only widen your weaknesses.

4. Avoid listening to ALL people's opinions.

Avoid reading too much other people's opinions or the news, if you don't want to be confused and lose your ability to judge. This market does not follow the rules and news!

5. When the market is shaking strongly, avoid trading. Ignoring orders at this time will erode all your capital.

Be careful with LONG orders, set specific SL.

Not at all fud. Recalling the period of price collapse of the whole market a few years ago, the situation was quite similar to now: $BTC stagnated for quite a long time, altcoins flew to $BOME $WIF . Altcoins fly in style: when a coin's price is quite high, the The fish jumps over another coin to continue pushing, repeating the process.

At this time, most people are profitable so everyone is passionately participating in trading, it makes them forget the big picture.

After that binge? The market collapses without warning, and there will never be a rebound strong enough for you to exit your trade. As a result, you will lose quite a bit, or lose heavily if you don't close early.

A lot of people say BTC will rise to 80, 100, 150k USD. That could happen, but what if it doesn't? Otherwise, the market will have a big price crash.

At this time, both short and long sides will soon encounter big fluctuations.

My personal opinion during this period is: Avoid overextending losses and overextending profits. If you get the price then exit the order, don't be greedy.

Rules for beginners!

RULE NUMBER 1: AS long as you have money in your pocket, you're alive, don't be afraid of running out of opportunities, don't need to rush

RULE NO. 2: Trend is your friend! You have to follow the market if you don't want to be crushed. If the coin is strong, the price is not too high ($BTC $ETH ). Weak coin, low price is not low. Potential is calculated in percentage, not capitalization.

RULE NUMBER 3: If you miss your chance, don't do it again, FOMO will make you miss other, better opportunities. Entering a careless order means you will lose opportunities for other good positions.

RULE NUMBER 4: An unclosed order will neither make a profit nor lose, but money that hasn't been withdrawn to your bank account is not your money yet.

RULE NUMBER 5: Do not have the mentality of "retrieving what was lost". This mentality will create stress for you, making you want to win or lose enough with the market. The more impatient you are, the more you lose. Losses are losses, you have to think that next you will make another profit, don't think that you are recovering from losses.

RULE NUMBER 6: ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN THE CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET => DON'T BE OVERCONFIDENT.

RULE NUMBER 7: The more orders you place in and out, the more confused you become, and the less accurate your judgment and assessment becomes.

RULE NUMBER 8: No one can catch the bottom and sell the top. Eat only the body of the fish.

RULE NUMBER 9: Waiting patiently often brings better results.

RULE NUMBER 10: Without confidence, without a plan - clear TP/SL, do not enter an order.

- RULE NO. 11: Risk/reward at least 1/2 - 1/3.

👋Stop loss is what makes the difference.

One of the most difficult actions when trading is stopping loss. Very few people are willing to suffer the pain of losing money, but they don't know, they could lose 3-5 times that amount if they don't exit the order soon.

But where is the stop loss? It's actually quite easy to identify, they are resistance and support zones. These zones are fully analyzed by users on the Binance Square newsletter. They often fall into Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Trendlines...

When the price breaks these zones, there is a very high possibility that it will go straight. At this time, you have to bite the bullet and stop loss, because the price can go very far, you can't play the spiritual system and pray for it to come back. It's better to cut losses to find another opportunity than to get stuck and lose a lot of opportunities.

My own experience is that when you see the price increase/decrease in a ladder pattern on all time frames 1D, 4h, 1h, 15m, the risk of exceeding the mark is very high.

Stop loss is something everyone can proactively do and know how to do. While the desire to correctly guess the market trend is more of a matter of luck.

Having said that, this skill requires a lot of practice, even pros sometimes make unreasonable mistakes. An attitude of constant regret is very bad in trading.
#binancesquares
#stoploss
#newbies

Correct psychology when trading cryptocurrency?

In this market, people with too sensitive nerves will soon be exhausted. Therefore, we must gradually practice being cold if we want to keep it for a long time. Cold TP, cold SL according to plan. You must have the mindset that there are 1,000 other opportunities to make a profit, not let a few losing orders destroy your spirit.

Strong fluctuations in psychology are taboo when trading.

In a market where any possibility can happen, I choose to take profits according to my own needs. When I see that I have completed my plan, I will take profit, not caring whether the price will continue to go up or turn down.

Because you may regret taking profits too early, or you may also regret that instead of gaining $40, you lost $40.

Not having a plan, being greedy, being weak-minded...they are the reasons that will destroy your mental health.

--- If you COPY someone else's transaction, YOU MUST...

0. You have to believe they are better than you. Otherwise, copying is meaningless.

1. Carefully check their results for a total of 90 days. It should be a steadily rising chart with moderate fluctuations instead of skyrocketing spikes.

2. Once you have chosen, you must absolutely trust them for a long enough period of time (30-90 days). DO NOT BE HOT. When counting many of the top traders, I see that most of them have positive ROI (>200%) within a 90-day frame, but the PnL of some followers is negative. Why? According to my prediction, some followers saw a negative order and immediately got scared, intervened in the order, TP and SL were mixed up and did not follow the leader, leading to a negative order. That's why the first item number 0 I mentioned is so important. You must believe they are better than you, and not interfere with orders.

3. You cannot give all your money to 1 person. You can spend 30% to copy from a few others, the rest you trade yourself. Or take 100% and spread it evenly over many people (if you don't have time)

4. Start small - so you have time to understand the trading style of the person you're copying. Once you trust them, add a little more capital to them, but not too much, have to diversify sources.

Opinion: Copy trading is also very good, because others will dare to do what we do not dare to do. They dare to try x10 accounts, while we prefer safe trading. Giving them 5-10% of your budget and being willing to x10 or lose it all is worth it, right?
#copytrading

---Should you trust other people's analysis?

In a market where everyone has the right to say something, in my opinion, most of it is just trash.

There, almost everyone tries to make judgments and judgments, either on the green side or the red side. If luck is right, this style of writing will appear "I said it the other day/month ago" as if I were a god and had the ability to analyze the market. If you guess wrongly, then stay silent.

Many people guessed the price was correct, so why not show a short all in order? Or is it just because in life, they don't have a voice so they have to go online to pretend they know more than others?

Basically, you should not believe the upcoming market movements based on other people's analysis, because it has almost a 50/50 probability. People who survive in the market rely on the ability to manage capital, take profits, and cut losses according to discipline, not trying to guess the right trend.

When reading their articles, you should only pay attention to the milestones. These milestones, whether intentional or unintentional, often occur according to Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, and Trendlines models. Those are the locations where the price will go (up or down).

From those numbers, calculate your own Risk-reward ratio (at least 1:2), add a little judgment and your own technical analysis and then decide whether to enter the order or not.

Don't try to enter an order when the Risk-reward ratio is 1:1, or when the market is shaking strongly, when you cannot make your own judgment, or have no specific plan. That kind of thing is just a game of chance.

--- SHOULD I USE LEVERAGE OR NOT? (part 3).

I want to emphasize that because my capacity is limited, I do not use traps. But I don't underestimate that tool.

Reasons why I don't use leverage:

1. Stress. It will be very difficult for you to relax your mind to enjoy life because leverage will make you worry about burning out your account. You will have to check regularly. You will automatically wake up at 3-4 am to turn on your phone to see the prices. I have to say that I'm haunted by that stage of using traps, it's terribly damaging to my mental health.

2. Pressure. If you are not decisive in cutting losses (specific limit), using leverage will only destroy your assets faster and more brutally. Player x1 can hold losses, waiting for a rebound for unexpected fluctuations, but player x5 x10 is not allowed. The more pressure you have, the more orders you enter and exit, the less wise your decisions will be. Plans are broken and regrets are left behind.

3. Traps are for some cases where we are confident that our chances of winning are high. But in this market, who knows?

4. Once your brain gets used to the x5 x25 leverage, it is very difficult for you to go back and accept modest numbers at x1. This habit can lead you to play: losing at x5, and wanting to win back at x10. Or you won at x10, excitement will push you to x20. If you don't have discipline, you will soon lose everything.

In short, leverage is not for beginners. It will destroy the newbie mercilessly. Some people I know have lost 10-20k USD and can't get it back because of leverage. Now I just have to swallow the bitterness.

If you are a newbie, just be enthusiastic, don't get too excited.

--- SHOULD I USE LEVERAGE OR NOT? (part 2)

Traps will bring many advantages if we grasp most of the chances of winning.

But maybe that's for someone with good analytical ability, definitely not me.

I'm not good at technical analysis, not quick at updating news, and can't even guess the macro situation. I understand my abilities in this market, so I CHOOSE NOT TO USE LEVERAGE no matter how confident I am with my orders. Because in this market, anything can happen.

A few years ago, I shorted dogecoin because I saw that in less than a day, it had increased 100%, I thought it could hardly increase further, but God knows that a few hours later, it had increased nearly 200%. I lost a lot that time, and I still don't forget it.

The paradox is, using leverage seems seductive, but when you use it, you only end up with losses, without a single penny of profit. Until I understand my own abilities better, I stop being greedy and have fun with x1, then I start making money again.

Unfortunately, my profits have not yet recovered my losses. The price to pay for the lesson of using leverage is too high (nearly $3000). It shouldn't have been that big. I hope that newbies who are just dipping their toes into the market will calm down, spend a small amount of money to learn first, and don't rush to make a profit. Because you cannot make a profit with ignorance. You cannot make a profit with greed alone. You only make profits when you understand more, are more skilled, calmer, and more decisive.

Part 3 will talk about mental stress and mental disadvantages when using leverage. Follow along to read.

*Should we use leverage or not? (Part 1)

My own short answer: No!

Do not use traps even if it is x2.

I used to enter the market with full enthusiasm, combined with arrogance and greed. I use trap x10. And the result is as you probably guessed, I burned my account for the first time, about $1500.

I was in pain, my heart felt like it was exploding, I was tearing my hair out, tormenting myself. Many days of fasting and not dressing, accumulating money, liking an item and not daring to buy it, but in the end, a large amount of money immediately evaporated. Like a gamble.

That pain lasted 3 months.

Then I sold the gold and came back. The stupid thought here is: I want to get back what I lost.

The mindset of regaining what has been lost is extremely dangerous. Because it brings a hasty mentality, wanting to win or lose enough with the market. This leads to the second loss. Although this time more cautious, only using traps x3, x5. But not decisively cutting losses causes your capital to gradually dry up. I continued to lose $1500, the remaining balance was $500.

In extreme pain, I withdrew the remaining $500 for daily expenses, and from there I cut off cryptocurrency for a while.

What is the lesson? We cannot use the immature (but greedy) understanding of a new market entrant to win. You will only make profits when you become more skilled and knowledgeable.

Unfortunately, many newbies have lost money in the same way as me. Hopefully you will stay calm, keep a cool head and be less greedy to learn slowly, before putting too much money into the trading floor (enough to cause you pain).

The story of leverage is still long. Follow me to read part 2.

Will the cryptocurrency market decline in the near future?

As you know, Warren Buffet said the crypto market is a mousetrap because it has no intrinsic value. He said that sooner or later, the cryptocurrency market will collapse.

I think this opinion is partly correct. Because all the values ​​people attach to cryptocurrencies become less and less certain.

It is not like gold, it is not an inflation-proof asset. All people in this market are speculators, not investors.

It has huge limitations in the speed of payments and transfers between wallets. I tried transferring money from a cold wallet to an account on the exchange, it took at least 30 minutes. Some days it takes longer, 1-2 hours.

It takes a lot of energy.

The government doesn't like it. Basically, the government always wants to control money, so a decentralized, non-governmental currency is a very idealized concept. According to my prediction, the government will create its own cryptocurrency, and that currency will be similar to the current stable coin. That means other currencies are likely to be suppressed, including exchanges.

I still adhere to the opinion: the cryptocurrency market is no different from a large casino. Casinos are alive, the crypto market is alive. It doesn't need to be such a big replacement for the fiat currency market, it just needs to be an additional option. We should not think in black and white terms, but should also know that there are intermediate shades like gray that exist.

As a result, this market may not expand forever as expected, it may shrink, but it will not disappear. At least in the near future.