💡9/3 Graphical simplified version Simple analysis $BTC
The price rebounded yesterday, but it is only a rebound at present, not a reversal, so the big market trend has not changed, but the structure needs to be redefined.
Yesterday's short selling failed, so the shock structure that we focused on yesterday is likely to be invalid. We have optimized and expanded the shock range. The lower edge can focus on 57000 (yesterday's low/4H cycle potential support/liquidation peak)
This becomes the price point of resonance between large and small cycles. If the price falls below again, we will still consider chasing shorts on the right.
Above the shock, we will focus on 60000 61200. The technical level just verified the high point ahead, which is also the peak of short liquidation. If the price weakens near these prices (obtaining liquidity), it will become a good opportunity to layout shorts on the left.
💡9/2 Graphical simplified version Simple analysis #BTC $BTC
Last week's short positions were all closed over the weekend. Why? We closed the positions after verifying that the support was not broken many times. This is part of the plan. (See the picture for details)
After breaking the range this morning, we recovered the short positions again. Some partners may ask, since we want to recover them, why do we need to close them over the weekend?
In fact, we can regard this as two complete transactions. The first one is shorting at the upper edge of the range and taking profit at the lower edge of the range.
The second one is chasing shorts on the right side of the range after breaking through the range. The two do not conflict. We cannot predict the market trend. If you have been following my content, you should know that I have laid out such a plan since last week. All operations are just executing the plan.
So there is no hesitation in chasing shorts here, and there is not much to say. The first short position has a profit margin of nearly 3%, and this time the stop loss is only 2%, so even if the stop loss is made, it can be regarded as a profit retracement of the previous transaction.
As for whether it will go down directly or it is a scam, it is not important. Just do a good job of risk control and do it. The market will give you the answer.
Since the shock in March, Bitcoin has gone through many similar structures. One is the current state of resonance between large and small cycles (not yet completely out), and the other two are structures that have already come out. They have similar points. 1. The previous price has been strong in the short position 2. After going out of the shock range, it is a false upward breakthrough
If the expected trend is repeated, I think the downward space is still very imaginative, at least it will eat a period of accelerated trend.
Support signs appeared at the previous low, and the pin broke through falsely. According to the plan, I first made some profit reductions.
I will see the situation tomorrow. If the rebound continues, I will consider temporarily closing all short positions. If it weakens tomorrow, I will also consider adding short positions.
At present, I will lock in some profits, and the original short position also has cost protection.
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8/30 Graphical simplified version Simple analysis #BTC $BTC
Yesterday, our core focus was on the key positions of the upper and lower edges of the oscillation range. It started to break upward last night, but didn't come back in the second half of the night. I still regard this as a false breakthrough, and it is still a weak performance.
So the short position chooses to enter the market when it falls back to the range again
This structure can be mapped to the large cycle. Now the large and small cycles belong to the nesting doll stage. Once they weaken and break, they are easy to resonate and start the main leap wave market
So the current small structure action is more critical
If there is no big resistance in the small cycle position, we will consider holding this short position for a long time
If there is obvious long resistance in the small cycle at the previous low of 57900-57800, we will consider leaving the short position in the short term and wait for the right side to break and then take back the short position
8/30 Graphical simplified version Simple analysis #BTC $BTC
Yesterday, our core focus was on the key positions of the upper and lower edges of the oscillation range. It started to break upward last night, but didn't come back in the second half of the night. I still regard this as a false breakthrough, and it is still a weak performance.
So the short position chooses to enter the market when it falls back to the range again
This structure can be mapped to the large cycle. Now the large and small cycles belong to the nesting doll stage. Once they weaken and break, they are easy to resonate and start the main leap wave market
So the current small structure action is more critical
If there is no big resistance in the small cycle position, we will consider holding this short position for a long time
If there is obvious long resistance in the small cycle at the previous low of 57900-57800, we will consider leaving the short position in the short term and wait for the right side to break and then take back the short position
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$BTC false breakthrough? Bitcoin is still weak, can we continue to be bearish? | Cryptocurrency Circle | Bitcoin Market Analysis | BTC ETH | Sanmu
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💡8/29 Graphical simplified version Simple analysis #BTC
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Last night, it entered a wide range of fluctuations and reached a new low (false break), which also verified that the bottom bulls still had buying support, and also helped us confirm the bottom key position of 57800-57900 again.
The current price is still in line with yesterday's expectations, and it is being repaired and adjusted. Pay attention to the key price of yesterday's rebound high point near 60200.
Since the trend of both large and small cycles is bearish, our trading is mainly short-selling, and the core of the transaction revolves around the two key positions just discussed.
📉Plan1: The price tested 60200 again and was suppressed, and the short position was arranged on the left.
📉Plan2: After the price is fully adjusted, it begins to fall below the key position of 57800-57900, and consider chasing the short position on the right
Just now, a friend asked me how to set the stop loss during the live broadcast. The live broadcast was too slow, so I will explain it briefly in words.
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The stop loss position is based on your entry logic. When your entry logic is broken, it is time for you to stop loss.
For example, your entry logic is the right breakthrough of the box. Then when you find that this is a false breakthrough and the original entry logic is broken (wrong), you can do a stop loss.
Stop loss is simple, but entering the market is difficult.
Many friends don’t know how to do stop loss. It’s not that they don’t know how to do stop loss, but they don’t know how to enter the market. When entering the market, they feel full frequency, and when they have floating losses, they are at a loss. They don’t know whether to stop loss or not. It seems that there is support at any position. Once the amount of loss is too large, they are even more reluctant to cut their losses, which leads to mistakes on top of mistakes!
Graphics and text simplified version Simple analysis #BTC
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1D——Still in the falling channel, the current price is near the middle axis of the channel, and there is still room to go down.
4H——After the first acceleration, it fluctuated, broke through the upward fluctuation and fell back to the range, which is extremely similar to the trend at the end of June. With reference to this kind of trend, it is likely to continue to weaken and fall.
1H——Yesterday's intraday decline, and the volume accelerated in the early morning of today, from the original short-seller strong to the absolute short-seller strong (kinetic energy release). Usually, after the volume acceleration, the market will enter a short-term repair and then continue the market trend direction. In the short term, it is believed that the adjustment position will be mainly oscillation repair.
Summary——Both the large and small cycles are weak, and the original short-term strength was immediately dropped back. Subjectively, it is judged that the market will continue to fall to form a large-cycle short-seller continuation, and there is a chance to fall below the previous low. However, the short-term bearish momentum has been released. If it falls directly, it will not be healthy for the trend. Therefore, it is best to fall after adjustment. In the short term, it will fluctuate, and the long cycle will continue to be bearish. $BTC
LINK has a small cycle of high volume, so you can consider TP1 profit taking! #LINK 点击投票瓜分50000U🧧
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#LINK Both the large and small cycles show a relatively weak performance. After the small cycle oscillation structure is broken, there is a chance to accelerate the decline in the second stage. 点击投票瓜分50000U🧧