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Market Analysis 7.4

Good morning, brothers. I have been reminding you of several points in the past few days:

(1) Save money and wait for the price to fall below $59,000

(2) Don’t rush to buy the bottom or add positions

(3) Don’t sell at the bottom

The current recommendation remains unchanged

We still have to wait for the Mentougou incident to be resolved before we decide whether to add positions

Yesterday’s small non-farm data ADP was lower than expected

Previous initial claims data and PMI were also positive

Gold hit the $2,360 mark

But BTC still fell. The fundamental reason is still because of Mentougou

The impact of the recent Mentougou incident is far greater than the Fed’s policy

Pay attention to the release of non-farm data at 20:30 tomorrow night

There should be more news about the Mentougou incident next week

To summarize the strategy:
Wait for the Mentougou incident to be resolved before deciding whether to add positions

Don’t sell at the bottom, otherwise the rebound mentality will be out of control, and you will be trapped if you chase the rebound.

As long as you don’t buy high-inflation tokens, don’t be afraid to hold the spot, and you will be fine

ZK fell to 0.15 before, and it rebounded
chr fell to 0.2 at the lowest, and it rebounded.
It fell for a few weeks, and it may rise again in a few days.
#BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期 $BTC

Market Analysis 7.3

Good morning, brothers.

Last night, Powell gave a speech, saying that inflation has made considerable progress,
but he is still unwilling to let go of whether there will be a rate cut in September and when it will start!

Powell's speech is positive, gold rose, and the US dollar index DXY fell.
It should rise, but BTC fell in the opposite direction.

Yesterday, not much ETF funds flowed in.
In terms of on-chain data,
although BTC did not continue to flow into exchanges in large quantities,
it is worrying that stablecoins show the dynamics of outflow from exchanges.

So, although we are optimistic about the general rebound,
we still need to prevent the last drop,
which is why we remind everyone not to chase the rise.

This Friday at 20:30, non-agricultural data will be released.
The last time the non-agricultural data exceeded the standard abnormally, it hurt the currency circle very much.
This time it should be normal.

Although it seems to be under a lot of pressure, don't sell at the bottom,
otherwise, when things rebound, your mentality will be out of control and blame others.
The current position does not exceed 50%,
and you can continue to buy at the bottom when there is a big drop.
Inflation will always go down, Mentougou will always be solved,
Don't fail tomorrow, you can win the day after tomorrow.

#BTC #BTC走勢分析 $BTC

Market Analysis 7.1

Good morning, brothers. A new week has begun.

The current market has rebounded. Many brothers say that the bull market has returned.

Four major events to watch this week.

(1) Powell’s speech on Tuesday

(2) The US ADP employment figures for June will be released at 20:15 on Wednesday

(3) The US non-farm payrolls for June will be released at 20:30 on Friday

(4) Most importantly, there should be further news from Mentougou before July 15

Although the market has rebounded, stablecoins are still flowing out.

Don’t sell at a loss when the market falls, and chase high when the market rises.

Don’t sell at a loss when the market falls. Many altcoins have fallen to the starting point of the rise.

Keep some bullets and continue to buy at the bottom if the market falls to 59,000.

Don’t chase high when the market rises, unless you are short, there is nothing you can do.

More bullets will be released after the news from Mentougou is further released.

Big funds can directly deploy some ETH.
This is the clearest and most stable solution.

The best situation at present is that the Mentougou incident in early July will be properly resolved, compensation will be delayed or paid in batches, inflation data will decline, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut will increase, then a new round of bull market will start.

#BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

New tokens listed on Binance in 2024:

Tokens with a drop of more than 80% are: AEVO, PORTAL, STRK, SAGA, DYM;

Tokens with a drop of more than 70% are: AXL, MANTA, OMNI, PYTH, PIXEL, TNSR, ALT;

Tokens with a drop of more than 60% are: AI, BOME, WIF, XAI, JUP, METIS, REZ, ETHFI;

Tokens with a drop of more than 50% are: TAO, ENA, BB

Tokens with a drop of more than 40% are: ZRO, RON, NOT;

Tokens with a drop of more than 30% are: IO, ZK.

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.30

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday was Saturday and ETF trading was suspended.

Let's look at the on-chain data first:
(1) Stablecoins have rebounded a little
(2) BTC inflows into exchanges have slowed down, but are still at high levels
Current support levels: $60,000, $58,400
Resistance level: $63,000
Powell will give a speech next Tuesday
The US ADP employment figures for June will be released at 20:15 on Wednesday
The US non-farm payrolls for June will be released at 20:30 on Friday
The last data released was 275,000, much higher than the expected 200,000, which caused BTC to plummet
This time it should return to normal, not so exaggerated
In fact, the Fed's policy is not very important for the recent impact on the cryptocurrency market
The most urgent task is the Mentougou incident. BTC worth $9 billion is no joke
Even if only 1/3 flows into the market, there is still a scale of $3 billion,
enough for ETF net buying funds to inflow for more than a month to offset
Mentougou will have to release the results before July 10th, and it's about to come true

Don't buy the dip in the next few days, wait a few more days, unless you are short
We need to prevent BTC from falling below $59,000
If it falls below, don't sell the spot, and continue to buy the dip
Optional currencies: ETH, Uni, Ens, Ssv, etc.

#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 $BTC

Market Analysis 6.29

Good morning, brothers. Let's review yesterday's analysis conclusions:

"If Mentougou really pays, we must be prepared.
There is a probability of more than 70% falling below $60,000.
Now many people are recharging BTC to Binance.
When bad news comes, they will sell and run away. The selling pressure is large.
So we need to keep a lot of bullets and wait for the price to fall before buying the bottom."

After the PCE data was released yesterday, it was in line with expectations, showing that inflation is still high.
But it is lower than the previous value, a three-year low, which is a hope for the long term future.

Spot ETF funds are flowing out, mainly Grayscale and Fidelity have issued a lot of coins.

The on-chain data is not optimistic, or it is a continuation of the situation a few days ago:
Stablecoin outflows, the current stablecoins in the exchange have dropped to the low value of February (4 months ago)
That is to say, we have been speculating on coins for 4 months, and the market funds have not increased
BTC continues to flow into exchanges, mainly into Binance

Why is the market so weak? The core reason is still Mentougou
The currency circle will not be at peace until Mentougou is resolved

Rest more during this period and pay more attention to the fundamentals and dynamics of value coins
Save some bullets and wait for the Mentougou incident in July to fall before buying the bottom
Five poor, six desperate, seven turning over

#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #以太坊ETF批准预期 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.28

Good morning, brothers. The conclusion of the current analysis is,

"Be patient, everything will turn around when it reaches the extreme. When the market reaches the bottom, it will rebound strongly when it encounters favorable news.
Market response plan, hold a part of the coins in spot, and wait for a big drop to continue to buy the bottom."

The market rebounded yesterday, but we should not be too happy too early.
Systemic risks have not been resolved,
The Mentougou incident is still unresolved.

Yesterday, the ETF's bottom-fishing power was not strong, and only a few million US dollars flowed in.
According to the on-chain data, stablecoins did not continue to flow in, and funds were insufficient.
But BTC increased by 4,000 yesterday, mainly flowing into Binance.
Therefore, the on-chain data is bearish.

Currently, the recommended position is less than 50%.
Brothers who buy too many coins can short BCH to hedge.
Currently BCH is $387.3, and the stop loss is $391.

The PCE price index will be announced at 8:30 tomorrow night, with an expected 2.6%.
Lower than expected is positive, and higher than expected is bearish.
The market may fall below $61,000 before the data is released.
In addition, the probability of falling below $60,000 is higher if the data is negative.

If Mentougou really pays, we must be prepared.
There is a probability of falling below $60,000 of more than 70%.
Now many people recharge BTC to Binance.
When the negative news comes, they will sell off and run away. The selling pressure is relatively large.
So we need to keep a lot of bullets and wait for the price to fall before buying the bottom.
#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.26

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, the altcoin rebounded to a certain extent.

The core reasons are summarized in two parts

(1) BTC is not at a high level, so there is room for altcoins to play

(2) BTC is under selling pressure. Everyone knows that Mentougou is going to crash the market.

Some funds will flow from BTC to ETH and other altcoins

From the on-chain data, stablecoins have repeatedly flowed in and out.

The market is quite divided.

Some large funds withdrew and ran away, and some large funds continued to recharge.

After the rebound, a large amount of BTC was recharged to the exchange.

Since there will be a real hammer of Mt. Gox unlocking in early July,
BTC will further pull back. I asked everyone to close BCH short orders before.
BCH will continue to short after another wave of rise.
Now is the best time to lay out Shanzhai and ETH.
There may be a pullback, but just hold it. Make up for it once it drops 5%-10%.
As long as it is not a contract, hold the spot and wait to make money.
If you don’t lay out now and short it, it is easy to miss the opportunity.
Several recommended projects:
STX, CHR, FTM, ZK, AR, etc., all have super good fundamentals.
Ignore tomorrow’s rise and fall, but long-term holding will definitely make money.
We are on the eve of the Fed’s interest rate cut.
On the eve of further popularization of cryptocurrencies.
There will be short-term pain, but if you put it in the long run, many coins will have several times the return.

#BTC #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Market Analysis 6.25

Good morning, brothers. Yesterday, Bitcoin fell 8.1%,
falling to $58,528 at 4 a.m.,
the largest intraday drop since April 13.

But strangely, many altcoins did not break new lows,
FTM did not fall but rose instead,
it seems that altcoins also have a bottom line.

Yesterday, there was news that Mentougou paid more than $400 per BTC,
which may be fake news and needs further observation.
There should be detailed information by July 10.

BTC may fall below $60,000 again. However, altcoins may see a turnaround for two reasons. (1) BTC is not at a high level, so there is room for altcoins to play. BTC has always been at $70,000 before, and big investors are worried that BTC’s correction will cut altcoins in half. So they dare not buy. Now that BTC has fallen to $60,000, altcoins have room to rise. (2) BTC is under selling pressure, and everyone knows that Mentougou is going to crash the market. Then some funds in the market will flow from BTC to ETH and other altcoins. So from now to early July, don’t short your position. Hold 30% of your position, and then gradually increase your position in ETH and altcoins to 50%-60%. Don’t go all in at once, buy a little bit every day. If the Mentougou news causes BTC to fall to $55,000, it will be a good opportunity to buy at the bottom. Because the biggest negative factor in the cryptocurrency market in the past 10 years has been lifted, the cryptocurrency market may usher in a new wave of bull market after Mentougou. It is still the judgment I said before:
From a macro-cyclical perspective, we are currently on the eve of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle.
The day after tomorrow is beautiful, but tomorrow is cruel, and many people will fall tomorrow.
This includes abnormal economic data, the Mentougou incident, war conflicts, etc.
#BTC #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC

Accurate market analysis 6.24

Good morning, brothers. On Saturday and Sunday,
Binance spot BTC trading volume was only 1/4 of that on weekdays, and the trading volume fell sharply.

On the one hand, it can be understood as insufficient liquidity and weak rebound.
On the other hand, it can also be understood as a decline with no volume, and it is about to end.

According to the on-chain data,
the current stablecoin has fallen to the value on May 14.
Around May 14, the BTC price was also $63,000.

More than 5 Fed officials spoke this week
On Thursday, Biden and Trump held their first televised debate
On Friday, PCE data was released

After falling for half a month,
ETF funds have been net outflows for 8 consecutive days.
At present, there are three words: patience, waiting, and ruthlessness.
The next support level is $61,500, and you can add positions when it reaches it.

#BTC #ETH #币安合约锦标赛 $BTC

Market Analysis: 6.23

Next Week Outlook

Good weekend, brothers, this week is coming to an end.

Earlier this week, several weaker-than-expected economic data boosted market expectations for the Fed's September rate cut,
but Friday's PMI data showed that overall business activity remained resilient,
which may reduce the urgency of the Fed's rate cut.

This week, the Swiss National Bank started its second rate cut,
the Bank of England signaled that a rate cut was imminent,
and several Fed officials believed that there might only be one rate cut this year.

Next week is special,
because there will be no important economic data release next week,
but more than 5 Fed officials will speak.

Although it has fallen so much, BTC has not rebounded and has not broken through $65,000.
We should not take it lightly.
From the on-chain data,
BTC in the exchange has not continued to increase in the past few days,
but stablecoins have still flowed out from yesterday to today.

ETF funds have been net outflows for 8 consecutive days,
there should be capital inflows next week,
keep positions below 50% and wait for a rebound next week.
#BTC #币安合约锦标赛 $BTC

Evening data live

Both PMI data in the evening exceeded expectations, which is bearish
The initial value of the global service industry PMI is 55.1, and the expected value is 53.7
The initial value of the global manufacturing PMI is 51.7, and the expected value is 51

PMI data is not as important as non-agricultural data, CPI and other data
But there are also certain bearish factors

Spot positions below 50%,
Many coins have fallen a lot, and there is no need to reduce positions
It has already fallen before the data is released
Although the data is slightly bearish, the market will not continue to fall

#BTC #内容挖矿 $BTC

Market Analysis 6.21

Good morning, brothers. Despite the positive news of the increase in the number of people receiving unemployment benefits last night, BTC still shows a correction trend.

After thinking about it, the core reason is that the positive news cannot offset the negative news.

There are several negative factors at present.

(1) The Mentougou issue is still unresolved, and large funds are worried about affecting early withdrawal.

October is the final compensation time. Once the compensation is paid, it will bring a huge amount of selling pressure on BTC that has been locked for more than 10 years.

The early users of Mentougou have made dozens of times the money, so they will definitely run away.

(2) The international situation has changed dramatically.

Yesterday, Russia and North Korea formed a strategic alliance.

If one side goes to war, the other side will support it.

The conflict between NATO and Russia is gaining momentum, and now it is adding fuel to the fire.

War is negative for risky assets such as BTC.

(3) Last night, a Fed official delivered a negative speech.

Kashkari said that the wage growth rate is too high, and
it may take at most two years for inflation to drop to 2%.

ETF funds have been net outflows for 7 consecutive days,
mainly Fidelity and Grayscale are dumping the market.

Get up in the morning and wait for the Chinese panic to be released.
Some coins with strong fundamentals will rebound.
Pay attention to the PMI data released at 9:45 tonight.
Lower than expected is good news, higher than expected is bad news.
It is still yesterday's strategy.
Position below 50%, but don't be short.
Hold spot and reduce leverage. Saturdays and Sundays are generally volatile + callbacks.
Keep a normal mind, don't be too optimistic, and don't be too pessimistic.
Everything will turn around when it reaches its extreme, and the market will not keep falling.
#BTC走勢分析 $BTC

BTC sector investment opportunities

Since the popularity of Inscription BRC20, many BTC L2s have emerged from last year to this year

Such as Merlin, B2, BitLayer, etc.

But most of them are cross-chain bridges, transferring BTC across chains, and there is no technical innovation

Therefore, in the BTC track, we mainly focus on two projects: STX and CKB

[STX]'s technology is actually average, because it has first-mover advantage and brand effect

And it has big capital empowerment, and there are favorable news in August, so it is worth investing in dips

This wave of callbacks has a lot, but it is not a big problem to rise back

[CKB] proposed the RGB++ protocol, which is more innovative in technology

Merlin and other projects need to transfer BTC across chains

But CKB can directly use BTC to trade RGB++ assets

It's just that wallets such as OKX and Unisat do not support it yet

The lightning network test version of RGB++ will be launched in July, and the official version will be launched at the end of the year

It can also be invested in dips, with a current market value of $500 million

In addition, BitLayer's technology is average, but its marketing is good, and its capital layout is large

It is one of the many BTC One of the stronger ones in Layer2
It is also worth paying attention to after it goes online, but the coin has not been issued yet

Another BTC sector ML layout position below 5% is also OK

How about Merlin?

Merlin is average, technically poor, team is weak, and fundamentals are average

#BTC #STX #CKB $STX $CKB

Market Analysis 6.20

Good morning, brothers. BTC is still fluctuating around $65,000.
ETH is relatively stronger.

Yesterday, ETF trading was closed for one day, so no trading volume was seen.
The recent outflow of funds is obvious. If the net inflow on June 12 is deducted,
it has been a net outflow for 6 consecutive days.

From the on-chain data
(1) The BTC inventory in Binance has dropped significantly for the first time in half a month, with 5,000 BTC flowing out, which is positive
(2) Stablecoins have flowed out of the exchange
The funds on the exchange have not increased, and the bottom-fishing power is not strong, which is negative
PMI data will be released at 9:45 tomorrow night
PMI is not as important as the monthly retail sales rate on Wednesday night
But it will still have an impact on such a weak market
Higher than expected is negative, lower than expected is positive
The current market is in a state of chicken ribs, so many copycats have fallen sharply
It is a pity not to buy, but if you buy, you are afraid that it will continue to fall
Strategy recommendation, position below 50%, but do not short
Spot holding, reduce leverage, tomorrow Friday if there is negative news, it will fall
Saturday and Sunday are generally volatile + correction
Keep a normal mind, don't be too optimistic, don't be too pessimistic
#BTC #内容挖矿 $BTC

Market Analysis 6.19

Good morning, brothers. Last night, the monthly rate of US retail sales was lower than expected, which is good news.
After the data is released, I remind you to buy the bottom.
Although there was a certain correction after the data was released, it began to rebound at 3 am.

In terms of ETF, there was still a net outflow yesterday.
The outflow of funds was obvious, if the net inflow on June 12 was deducted.
It has been a net outflow for 6 consecutive days.

There will be another PMI data on Friday.
Next, we will focus on the release of unemployment benefits and CPI data on July 11.

Things will turn around when they reach their extremes. The market will not fall all the time.
At present, we are cautiously bullish.

Don't be short now, hold at least 30% of the position,
but don't exceed 50% of the position.

Currencies that can be held:
ETH series: UNI, ENS, SSV, ETHFI

#BTC #内容挖矿 #BTC走势分析 $BTC

Market Analysis 6.18

BTC fell less than 2%, other altcoins were in disarray,
Chinese people woke up in the morning and panicked again
The market has been too difficult and too painful recently
BTC has been falling for half a month, and many altcoins have fallen by more than 30%

Retail sales data will be released at 8:30 tonight, with an expected 0.30%,
Higher than expected is bearish, lower than expected is bullish

Yesterday, ETFs had a net outflow, and ETF funds ran away for three consecutive days
The US stock market is at a high level and may pull back,
Mentougou is on the verge of a bowstring,
Putin visits North Korea and international conflicts continue
The general trend is still hanging
There are a lot of black swans along the way

According to the plan, we are waiting for this week's rebound to reduce positions
But there is no rebound at all
So if we make a rational judgment
We will reduce our positions to 30%, and then only use 30% of the funds to play
Wait for panic to be released, and we will enter the market again if the market continues to fall sharply
Maybe we can buy more coins

Currently, we can only buy at the bottom btc, eth, ssv, ethfi, ens

#BTC #ETH #内容挖矿 $BTC $ETH

Evening market direct hit 6.17

Everyone is more concerned about the current situation development
Let's analyze
Look at the reserves of BTC in Binance and the reserves of ETH in all exchanges

Today's unreasonable decline
Mainly because Binance had more than 1,300 BTC flowing in at one time after 5 pm

During this period, BTC in Binance has been increasing slowly
Coinbase has not increased much, and there is still a slight outflow
Binance represents traditional currency circle funds, Coinbase represents Western institutional funds
So during this period, institutional funds have not actually withdrawn and are still deploying BTC
But traditional currency circle funds are more desperate and have sold a lot of BTC

From the perspective of ETH reserves, there are many outflows from exchanges.
Since the end of May, capital has been absorbing ETH
ETH has flowed out of exchanges in large quantities
The core reason for today's decline is still worried about the negative data released tomorrow night
During this period, we should not be washed away by dog ​​dealers
Spot patiently hold, most of the funds change vehicles to deploy some ETH and its sector tokens
The closer to the ETF approval time, ETH and its sector will definitely rise sharply!
Of course, don't be careless and open a high-multiple contract. Investment is risky.
We are doing long-term investment

Appropriate position to buy the bottom Ssv, Ethfi, Ens
#BTC #内容挖矿 $BTC