Hello, my name ildario!
I started getting acquainted with cryptocurrency in 2013, when a friend bought 1000 bitcoins (but don't think I'm a friend of a millionaire, as he sold all 1000 bitcoins for $100,000). I myself had about 120 bitcoins, which I lost in margin trading with leverage. I'm not under any illusions. I still feel the pain to this day.
I'm trying to evaluate the future prospects of TON (toncoin) over the next 3-5 years. I bought it at $3, and later added more at $7.20, so today's drop doesn't really bother me. Disclaimer: THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, as I'm clearly biased. Think for yourself, and don't risk more than you're willing to lose forever!
Why I'm biased:
1.     I like Pavel Durov (not as a man or a personality, but as a creator of simple yet extremely convenient solutions; under his leadership, I was always on VK, now I'm constantly on Telegram, which for me is the perfect tool). I involuntarily view those who haven’t installed Telegram as dinosaurs.
2.     Still, I hold TON and want to believe in the best, so I look for positives everywhere. It's like being the wife of a handsome addict, telling her friends, "but he's not like everyone else."
What I think about TON (this is very subjective, and I could be bitterly mistaken):
1.     Huge minus. TON is subject to Bitcoin's volatility (I'm 99% sure of this), general fever, and fear. That is, Bitcoin down, TON down; Bitcoin up, then TON up. So, I understand that a fivefold drop with the start of the "crypto winter" is a very real scenario.
2.     Huge plus. TON is directly linked to a real business generating income from advertising (therefore, in my mind, TON is a mix between a hedgehog and a viper, in a good sense). Yes, Telegram is a profit generator. Moreover, there’s a chance that the cash flow in 2024 will be positive. For me, TON is practically a "semi-stock" (subjectively, SEC, do not read this), not traditional crypto.
3.     Huge plus. TON is targeting Asian users. Asians are known gamblers and can drive up the price of anything they touch. The developer group in the TON network ecosystem called TON Foundation announced a partnership with the Hong Kong cryptocurrency exchange HashKey. Reportedly, the exchange's infrastructure will be used for purchasing cryptocurrency through the built-in Telegram crypto wallet for users in the Asia-Pacific region.
4.     Huge plus. Telegram has its own wallet (currently supports USDT, Bitcoin, USDT). Combined with the news about entering Asia, we are potentially seeing a HUGE possible increase in active Telegram users from Asia. I wouldn’t be surprised if in 3-5 years, Telegram gains an additional +1 billion users of Asian descent. Is there a chance for TON to be boosted by these users? Definitely, although there are risks of being blocked by laws.
5.     Huge plus. Telegram clearly plans to monetize itself more (active steps are being taken), and they do it carefully, not letting just anyone in, even setting barrier prices (if I'm not mistaken, it was initially 10,000 euros, then 3,500 euros, now 2,160 euros) again, combined with the fact that a huge array of active users = interest from advertisers, we could see a multiple increase in Telegram’s revenues, which could stimulate the growth of TON. I’ll add that it's VERY IMPORTANT that Telegram “trains” its advertisers not to turn into a dump.
6.     Huge plus. Plus – Telegram is still managed by Pavel Durov (and Durov hasn’t gone off the rails like McAfee). Pavel takes care of his weight, takes ice baths, etc. Wishing him many years of life (sincerely).
7.     Huge plus. Plus – Telegram has reached 900 million users (!!!). They seem to plan to reach 1.5 billion. Subjectively speaking, Telegram is more convenient than VK and more convenient than WA (not to mention FB). Understand that I'm comparing different things, but using TG, I practically stopped using another social network (after all, there are only so many hours in a day).
8.     Plus. Telegram is constantly testing and implementing new features. There is an ambition to realize "disruptive innovation" that could theoretically make a breakthrough.
9.     Huge plus. Telegram is addictive (admittedly), which is bad for the individual but good for Telegram's revenues as more money comes from advertising and almost no need to spend money on user retention.
10.  Huge plus. Telegram is virally trying to attract foreign (non-Russian speaking) advertisers. In fact, it's a clever and very smart move, channel administrators will receive 50% in TON of ad revenue IF 50% of subscribers are from foreign countries. So, channel admins will use ChatGPT to create foreign content for different countries to get paid. And importantly, advertisers pay in fiat (real money), and Telegram converts 50% of these funds into TON for payments to channel owners.
That is, TON will be bought constantly, regardless of the state of the crypto market (!!!).
11.  Plus. WALLET (Telegram's wallet). It will be almost “by default” for channel owners... that is, if you want to receive value, register, go through KYC, and you will be happy (50% of ad revenues converted into TON).
12.  Huge plus. WALLET is easily convertible to USDT, crypto can be sent to a Telegram user or to an external wallet or sold P2P for fiat. Nothing extra, just perfect! It’s really an alternative to large exchanges if the person is not a trader, but a HODLer.
13.  Huge minus. Any attempts to secure oneself may not protect against the SEC. We are now witnessing active work by this government agency.
14.  Huge plus. Telegram is creating its own ecosystem. For instance, Telegram Business has appeared https://telegram.org/blog/telegram-business. What’s next, marketplaces on Telegram? Or something else. In general, Telegram is targeting those who have money and participate in commerce. This is also a plus for revenues.
15.  Both a minus and a plus. The management of Telegram is limited to owning about 10% of TON. On the one hand, this is a plus – less ability to manipulate the market (though they are still huge), on the other hand, such distancing has unforeseen consequences. But remember the risks, maybe all this is a scam and we all live in a simulation (as Elon Musk said).
YOU CAN LOSE EVERYTHING, THINK CALMLY AND WITHOUT EMOTIONS!
In my personal ranking, TON is in third place, after Ethereum and Bitcoin. Yes, Ethereum is in first place for several reasons. I'll repeat, I'm not giving any recommendations; I believe that any outcome is possible and there are significant risks, despite all the positives.  
///
UPDATE 13/04/2024

My friend reviewed the article, and I will add his comment: There are only three factors that could significantly change everything:

(1) 900 million users who might potentially need TON for paying transaction fees (gas) - the demand could grow exponentially,

(2) extensive experience with high-load networks (and Telegram's resilience against national states that have already shown they can attack using the full power of the state machinery) enhances trust in the stability of the TON network (negative experiences with hanging transactions in ETH and recently in the SOL network under real-world application conditions like UBER, when you need to go, not wait while Vitalik makes excuses and tries to fix everything on the fly).

(3) In the long term, TON has every chance, especially since a 100x increase is already considered by the creator, "Even if TON price increases 100 times, transactions will remain ultra-cheap; less than $0.01. Moreover, validators may lower this value if they see commissions have become expensive—read why they're interested."
#toncoin #Telegram #ton #Token2049 #TONBlockchain

Hello everyone.
My name is Ildario.

I am trying to explore the behavior of Bitcoin (BTC) after the halving. As is known, the event is rare but inevitable. I want to state immediately that this is only an analysis, meaning it could be entirely erroneous (one could lose everything, absolutely everything).

Why it's crucial to be EXTREMELY cautious (and curb your excessive optimism and greed):
There have been three halvings, and each one showed significant growth in BTC; hence, predicting the outcome of the fourth event based on three occurrences is foolish. More precisely, while such a prediction is feasible, it is NOT a guarantee of the same outcome.A coin can land on heads three times and could either land on heads again or tails on the fourth flip, meaning there's a 33% chance of it randomly repeating (apologies to mathematicians if I'm mistaken). You wouldn't be surprised if the coin behaves unpredictably on the fourth toss, right? The same applies here.It's no secret that many major players can influence the market. Those with money can trigger a market crash with paid articles from journalists, or vice versa. We don't know what's on their minds (and most likely, we will never know their plans).I've previously mentioned the example of a turkey in the USA, which gets fed and cared for 353 days a year, believing this will always be the case. This has been repeated for 353 days; statistics would lead the turkey to believe this pattern will continue, and it expects to be fed and sheltered on the 354th day. However, that day turns out to be Thanksgiving... (this is a reference to Taleb).

You might argue that everyone knows (of course) how Bitcoin's price will behave because many very intelligent people have studied this issue.

Alright, let's listen to their predictions; after all, authoritative opinions are important to us:
John McAfee - One of the boldest forecasts came from McAfee, who even promised to eat his shoe on live TV if his prediction did not come true. Initially, McAfee predicted that Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by the end of 2020, but later doubled his forecast to $1,000,000. He repeatedly affirmed his forecast during 2017-2020 but ultimately retracted these statements.Raoul Pal - A former hedge fund manager and founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal suggested that Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 within the next five years (from 2020), based on his analysis of market structure and the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrency.Jesse Lund - The former vice president of blockchain initiatives at IBM, Lund stated in 2019 that, in his opinion, Bitcoin could be worth $1,000,000 by the end of 2020, which would promote the broader adoption of cryptocurrency and its use as a store of value.Tim Draper - A well-known venture capitalist, Draper predicts that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by 2022. Although this is less than a million dollars, his long-term outlook suggests that Bitcoin could achieve even greater value in the future, considering his forecasts for increased demand and widespread recognition of Bitcoin as a payment method.

The list of authoritative figures could go on and on...

Wait, stop... it's already 2024, and these predictions haven't materialized... well...
What would I definitely not do after the halving?
Answer: Trade with leverage, especially using someone else’s money. This has really caused plenty of heart attacks, poverty, and various broken fates. Imagine that the forecast does not come true, and you have taken money from your mom's retirement account (I did this and I am still incredibly ashamed of it).
So, a trader believes there will be significant growth, takes on leverage in margin trading, and dreams of escaping to tropical islands with beautiful top models on his own private island. He believes that even a 5000% increase and a 1:3 leverage ratio (which would add +15000 to his deposit) is a likely scenario.
Imagine the psychological trap many fall into, because no matter how much you win, it only takes one loss to lose ABSOLUTELY everything.
Let's consider another trader named Vitalik (all names and resemblances are coincidental). He caught a bull market at the beginning of the year, using leverage three times. And so his $50,000, set aside for education, turned into $1,000,000 (he could withdraw it, but greed plays a cruel joke on him). He notes that previous halvings have only dropped Bitcoin's price by a maximum of 17.4%!
What’s so bad about him using his $1,000,000 in Bitcoin to start trading with 1:3 leverage (since a 17.4% drop isn’t scary)... over time, the BTC rate could collapse by 34% in one day (then, let's say, it might rise). What awaits our trader? Correct, bankruptcy.

Once again, such a scenario is entirely possible:
The trader got carried away because $50,000 brought him $1,000,000 (in BTC).The trader did not convert this $1,000,000 (in BTC) into fiat money but decided to use a 1:3 leverage again, aiming to turn it into $150,000,000 (at least in his own mind).A 34% drop BTC price occurred.…..Profit (not for our trader).
For instance, I myself successfully used leverage three times. I had 120 BTC, which I lost in margin trading. But a year later, I bounced back, especially remembering how my friend once bought a SAMSUNG smart TV for 35 BTC. He turned it on once to watch a show about bird migration. Alex, if you're reading this, know that I'm not mocking, just stating facts for my analysis, no hard feelings, okay?
So, what am I getting at? Why do I think there is a risk of mass liquidations?
Answer: Because even my 13-year-old niece is using ChatGPT. Many traders have also been using this AI tool for their predictions.

Here's what ChatGPT tells us:
First Bitcoin Halving (2012):
Let's focus on the first Bitcoin halving in 2012 and provide more detailed information about the days until the minimum and maximum prices after the halving, as well as calculate the percentage changes.
First Halving (November 28, 2012):Price of 1 BTC the day before the halving: about $12.35Minimum price after the halving: about $12.30 (1 day after the halving)Maximum price after the halving: about $1,163 (368 days after the halving)Percentage changes:Percentage change to the minimum price after the halving: 0.4%Percentage change to the maximum price after the halving: 9419.8%
Second Bitcoin Halving (2016):
Let's look at the details of the second Bitcoin halving, which occurred on July 9, 2016, and analyze the price changes before and after this event:
Second Halving (July 9, 2016):Price of 1 BTC the day before the halving: about $650.63Minimum price after the halving: about $537 (24 days after the halving)Maximum price after the halving: about $19,783 (526 days after the halving)Percentage changes:Percentage change to the minimum price after the halving: ≈−17.4%Percentage change to the maximum price after the halving: ≈2938.4%
Third Bitcoin Halving (2020):
Details of the third Bitcoin halving, which occurred on May 11, 2020, allow us to see the price changes before and after this key event:
Third Halving (May 11, 2020):Price of 1 BTC the day before the halving: about $8,787Minimum price after the halving: about $8,600 (1 day after the halving)Maximum price after the halving: about $64,804 (337 days after the halving)Percentage changes:Percentage change to the minimum price after the halving: ≈−2.1%Percentage change to the maximum price after the halving: ≈637.5%
....so....
And now for some magic, let's ask ChatGPT to predict the fourth halving:
Of course, at first it might respond with something like, "Buddy, have you lost your mind? I'm artificial intelligence, not a crystal ball." But then we'll activate our rhetoric skills and get the following answer:
ChatGPT: Based on the current price of $66,482 per 1 BTC a day before the predicted halving, let's try to apply similar calculations to make assumptions about the minimum and maximum price after the halving:
Forecast of minimum and maximum prices after the halving:
Minimum price change after the halving: Considering the average minimum drop of -6.6% (based on previous data), the minimum price after the halving could be around:Minimum price ≈ $62,078 (9 days after the halving)Maximum price change after the halving: Using the average maximum increase of +4332% (based on previous data), the maximum price after the halving could be around:Maximum price ≈ $2,882,255 (410 days after the halving)
These estimates are based on historical data and do not account for many other variables that can affect market prices, such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, regulatory changes, and innovations in technology. Therefore, such forecasts should be considered with caution, as theoretical analysis and not as precise action guidance.
....
Wow! According to ChatGPT's forecast, the growth could reach ≈$2,882,255.
....

ATTENTION! ATTENTION! ATTENTION! YOU CAN LOSE ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING IF YOU TAKE EXCESSIVE RISKS! REMEMBER THIS AND NEVER (NEVER, NEVER, NEVER) FORGET!
THIS FORECAST MAY NEVER COME TRUE, AND CRYPTOCURRENCY CAN BEHAVE UNPREDICTABLY!

Print out this text and stick it on the wall opposite your workplace!
Just remember yourself 10 years ago; I personally believed that Bitcoin could never be worth $60,000. You might not believe now that it could be worth $0. We are all prone to making mistakes.

Always think clearly, always remember that your greed can destroy your life and the lives of your loved ones.

P.S. Protect yourself from inner demons and those who want to manipulate you in order to take all your money for themselves (I'm talking about major market manipulators).
Excessive risk and boundless optimism have ruined the lives of many traders and their families...

Always remember that you shouldn't keep all your money in volatile
cryptocurrencies.
At a minimum, always keep 20-30% in stablecoins (USDT) to
make purchases of BTC or other volatile cryptocurrencies when their
prices are at their lowest!

Here is the translation of the summary of key events preceding each significant Bitcoin crash, including the percentages of price declines:
Crypto Winter of 2011Peak: June 2011, $31.Trough: November 2011, $2.Decline BTC: From $31 to $2, which is a drop of 93.55%.Crypto Winter of 2013-2015Peak: November 2013, $1,163.Trough: January 2015, $172.Decline BTC: From $1,163 to $172, which is a drop of 85.21%.Crypto Winter of 2017-2018Peak: December 2017, nearly $20,000.Trough: December 2018, $3,200.Decline BTC: From $20,000 to $3,200, which is a drop of 84%.Crypto Winter of 2021-2022Peak: November 2021, $69,000.Trough: 2022, $17,600.Decline BTC: From $69,000 to $17,600, which is a drop of 74.49%.
Each of these downturns occurred in the context of significant external factors, such as regulatory changes, cryptocurrency exchange hacks, and macroeconomic conditions. These percentages highlight the significant volatility of the cryptocurrency market, making it both potentially high-reward and high-risk investment.