煌道
@huangdao
twitter:煌道|交易之道 ， 职业交易，业余健身，独立思维，前阿里资深运营，每日原创分享交易技术，交易策略，行情分析
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1.2 Hello, 2025
1. The second year of halving is a bullish market year; this pattern has gone through 3 cycles and is currently experiencing the fourth.
2. BTC.D is also continuing the cycle of plummeting for one year and then rising for three years. If the cycle continues, this year will see a year of plummeting BTC.D, with celebrations for ETH and altcoins.
3. Observe whether RWA+DEFI on the ETH chain, AI on the BASE chain, MEME on the SOL chain, and new projects on the SUI chain will overturn the big ship that is BTC this year.
1. The second year of halving is a bullish market year; this pattern has gone through 3 cycles and is currently experiencing the fourth.
2. BTC.D is also continuing the cycle of plummeting for one year and then rising for three years. If the cycle continues, this year will see a year of plummeting BTC.D, with celebrations for ETH and altcoins.
3. Observe whether RWA+DEFI on the ETH chain, AI on the BASE chain, MEME on the SOL chain, and new projects on the SUI chain will overturn the big ship that is BTC this year.
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Top Ten Predictions and Promising Tokens for 2025
Top Ten Predictions
1. Bull Market Bubble Year Under Neutral Interest Rates
BTC has experienced a bull market one year after each halving in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The difference is that before 2017 and 2021, interest rates had dropped to very low levels, while next year will see a neutral interest rate during the rate-cutting process. A major bull market in 2025 is expected, but the level of speculation may not be as high as in the previous two instances.
2. ETH and Altcoins Exploding
In the second half of this year, everyone is criticizing ETH, similar to how BTC was criticized in the second half of 2022. In December of both 2017 and 2020, ETH reached temporary lows against BTC after two halvings. Considering the recent performance of ETH ETFs and the many altcoins/BTC showing bottoming patterns, it is expected that ALTCOINS/BTC will continue to rise next year.
1. Bull Market Bubble Year Under Neutral Interest Rates
BTC has experienced a bull market one year after each halving in 2013, 2017, and 2021. The difference is that before 2017 and 2021, interest rates had dropped to very low levels, while next year will see a neutral interest rate during the rate-cutting process. A major bull market in 2025 is expected, but the level of speculation may not be as high as in the previous two instances.
2. ETH and Altcoins Exploding
In the second half of this year, everyone is criticizing ETH, similar to how BTC was criticized in the second half of 2022. In December of both 2017 and 2020, ETH reached temporary lows against BTC after two halvings. Considering the recent performance of ETH ETFs and the many altcoins/BTC showing bottoming patterns, it is expected that ALTCOINS/BTC will continue to rise next year.
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12.31 This week may see a bottom-fishing position
1. BTC broke below the low of 92200 on 12.20 yesterday, but it hasn't reached the target yet. If it can drop to around 84000, that would be a very good bottom-fishing position.
2. ETH, due to having dropped significantly earlier, has clearly not followed BTC's decline recently. The support level at 3000-3100 is hard to break.
1. BTC broke below the low of 92200 on 12.20 yesterday, but it hasn't reached the target yet. If it can drop to around 84000, that would be a very good bottom-fishing position.
2. ETH, due to having dropped significantly earlier, has clearly not followed BTC's decline recently. The support level at 3000-3100 is hard to break.
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12.30 No Break, No Establishment
1. BTC ETF had a total outflow of $1.327 billion in the past week, the largest single-week outflow since the rise to $49,000, but the price has not shown significant decline yet. This week, it is expected to break the support range of 91,000-92,500, and only a break will mark the end of the adjustment.
2. In contrast, ETH ETF had a net inflow of $210 million last week, consistently maintaining high net inflows and trading volume since November 6. ETH/BTC will continue to rise.
1. BTC ETF had a total outflow of $1.327 billion in the past week, the largest single-week outflow since the rise to $49,000, but the price has not shown significant decline yet. This week, it is expected to break the support range of 91,000-92,500, and only a break will mark the end of the adjustment.
2. In contrast, ETH ETF had a net inflow of $210 million last week, consistently maintaining high net inflows and trading volume since November 6. ETH/BTC will continue to rise.
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12.27 Believe in the Power of Cycles
1. December often marks historical lows for ETH/BTC, especially during halving years, and the year following a halving usually sees significant increases.
2. RWA + DEFI will be the narrative with the highest certainty in 2025; policy friendliness will bring on-chain prosperity, which will drive coin prices to surge, similar to the ICO boom in 2017 and the DEFI surge in 2021.
3. Currently, the on-chain yield stablecoin sector, ENA and USUAL, has already started to heat up.
1. December often marks historical lows for ETH/BTC, especially during halving years, and the year following a halving usually sees significant increases.
2. RWA + DEFI will be the narrative with the highest certainty in 2025; policy friendliness will bring on-chain prosperity, which will drive coin prices to surge, similar to the ICO boom in 2017 and the DEFI surge in 2021.
3. Currently, the on-chain yield stablecoin sector, ENA and USUAL, has already started to heat up.
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12.25 The Last Train to Spring
1. The fluctuations of BTC will continue; this is a process of the 2-day MACD returning to the zero axis, and it is possible that it will break through the 90,000 range.
2. ETH and altcoins have already been oversold in advance, and a bottom has formed.
3. Regardless of the situation, the fluctuations in the coming weeks will be the last opportunity to enter. I am very optimistic about the performance of ETH and altcoins in 2025, especially in the first quarter.
4. RWA, DEFI, AI AGENT, and grayscale concepts are all good investment targets.
1. The fluctuations of BTC will continue; this is a process of the 2-day MACD returning to the zero axis, and it is possible that it will break through the 90,000 range.
2. ETH and altcoins have already been oversold in advance, and a bottom has formed.
3. Regardless of the situation, the fluctuations in the coming weeks will be the last opportunity to enter. I am very optimistic about the performance of ETH and altcoins in 2025, especially in the first quarter.
4. RWA, DEFI, AI AGENT, and grayscale concepts are all good investment targets.
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12.24 Where to Buy the Dip
1. The expected fluctuation and pullback will take about two more weeks to end, and the market will welcome a new round of increases starting in mid-January.
2. Referring to past BTC movements, the pullback could reach 20%, and it is expected to break below the last major liquidation at 90600, dropping to around 85000.
3. ETH and some altcoins have already been oversold in advance, and it is difficult for ETH to drop below the 3000-3100 range; in these two weeks, we will see BTC drop faster than altcoins.
1. The expected fluctuation and pullback will take about two more weeks to end, and the market will welcome a new round of increases starting in mid-January.
2. Referring to past BTC movements, the pullback could reach 20%, and it is expected to break below the last major liquidation at 90600, dropping to around 85000.
3. ETH and some altcoins have already been oversold in advance, and it is difficult for ETH to drop below the 3000-3100 range; in these two weeks, we will see BTC drop faster than altcoins.
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The RWA TVL of US Treasury bonds grew sixfold last year, with ONDO and OM being the top three in this sector. Crypto giants like TETHER and Matrixport are also personally getting involved in RWA.
Traditional capital such as BlackRock and Fidelity are queuing to enter, along with stocks and commodities. This is a nascent sector with no ceiling.
After RWA, various financial derivatives such as stablecoins, lending, and staking will need to be supported, which will lead to a resurgence in DEFI.
Traditional capital such as BlackRock and Fidelity are queuing to enter, along with stocks and commodities. This is a nascent sector with no ceiling.
After RWA, various financial derivatives such as stablecoins, lending, and staking will need to be supported, which will lead to a resurgence in DEFI.
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If the counterfeit has ranks
King: RWA related
ONDO OM CRV XLM XRP HBAR
Diamond:
Trump/Musk related
AAVE LINK COW DOGE
Innovative projects this period
SUI, ENA, USUAL, HYPE
Gold: AI, DEPIN, MEME related
FET, TAO, VIRTAL, JASMY, HMT, XYO, PEPE
Bronze: Inscription section
All inscriptions are garbage
King: RWA related
ONDO OM CRV XLM XRP HBAR
Diamond:
Trump/Musk related
AAVE LINK COW DOGE
Innovative projects this period
SUI, ENA, USUAL, HYPE
Gold: AI, DEPIN, MEME related
FET, TAO, VIRTAL, JASMY, HMT, XYO, PEPE
Bronze: Inscription section
All inscriptions are garbage
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If the counterfeit has ranks
King: RWA related
ONDO OM CRV XLM XRP HBAR
Diamond:
Trump/Musk related
AAVE LINK COW DOGE
Innovative projects this period
SUI, ENA, USUAL, HYPE
Gold: AI, DEPIN, MEME related
FET, TAO, VIRTAL, JASMY, HMT, XYO, PEPE
Bronze: Inscription section
All inscriptions are garbage
King: RWA related
ONDO OM CRV XLM XRP HBAR
Diamond:
Trump/Musk related
AAVE LINK COW DOGE
Innovative projects this period
SUI, ENA, USUAL, HYPE
Gold: AI, DEPIN, MEME related
FET, TAO, VIRTAL, JASMY, HMT, XYO, PEPE
Bronze: Inscription section
All inscriptions are garbage
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Isn't ETH at 75% off (12.23) appealing?
1. ETH experienced a maximum decline of 25% in this wave. Every time the first segment of an upward trend during a bull market has reached this level of decline, it has either already bottomed out or will have a significant B-wave rebound.
2. Historically, except for the bear markets in January 2022 and 2019, ETH has generally risen in January, especially in the January of the second year after a halving, where there is usually a substantial increase.
1. ETH experienced a maximum decline of 25% in this wave. Every time the first segment of an upward trend during a bull market has reached this level of decline, it has either already bottomed out or will have a significant B-wave rebound.
2. Historically, except for the bear markets in January 2022 and 2019, ETH has generally risen in January, especially in the January of the second year after a halving, where there is usually a substantial increase.
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12.21 After the Crash, Everywhere is Gold
1. ETH formed a large bottom-rebound candlestick at 3100 yesterday, which is the 50% level of the entire increase and also aligns with the weekly 20 moving average. From a weekly perspective, this pullback of ETH can be considered a healthy correction.
2. ETH has repeatedly shown a double bottom in price and the BTC exchange rate in historical December months, and this year also exhibits this characteristic. I remain very optimistic about ETH and quality altcoins' performance in 2025.
1. ETH formed a large bottom-rebound candlestick at 3100 yesterday, which is the 50% level of the entire increase and also aligns with the weekly 20 moving average. From a weekly perspective, this pullback of ETH can be considered a healthy correction.
2. ETH has repeatedly shown a double bottom in price and the BTC exchange rate in historical December months, and this year also exhibits this characteristic. I remain very optimistic about ETH and quality altcoins' performance in 2025.
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12.20 Rebound in the making
1. BTC just fell slightly, ETH and altcoins began to avalanche, BTC.D also rose sharply, this will be the last wave of BTC.D's rise, next year ETH and altcoins will usher in spring
2. BTC has certain support around 9500, ETH has certain support around 3350, and has the ability to rebound
3. BTC will enter a correction lasting several months and a drop of more than 20% after each doubling, from this point of view, the correction is not over yet
1. BTC just fell slightly, ETH and altcoins began to avalanche, BTC.D also rose sharply, this will be the last wave of BTC.D's rise, next year ETH and altcoins will usher in spring
2. BTC has certain support around 9500, ETH has certain support around 3350, and has the ability to rebound
3. BTC will enter a correction lasting several months and a drop of more than 20% after each doubling, from this point of view, the correction is not over yet
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12.19 Opportunities arise from declines
1. The cryptocurrency market followed the sharp decline of US stocks last night, with MEME, SOL tokens, and inscriptions leading the drop. Many MEME coins have already halved in value, and I have repeatedly stated that I will absolutely not touch these three types of coins at this stage.
2. Strong cryptocurrencies like DEFI and RWA have mostly not fallen below their previous lows, while weaker cryptocurrencies have mostly broken below their previous lows.
3. ETH around 3400-3600 is a good buying point.
1. The cryptocurrency market followed the sharp decline of US stocks last night, with MEME, SOL tokens, and inscriptions leading the drop. Many MEME coins have already halved in value, and I have repeatedly stated that I will absolutely not touch these three types of coins at this stage.
2. Strong cryptocurrencies like DEFI and RWA have mostly not fallen below their previous lows, while weaker cryptocurrencies have mostly broken below their previous lows.
3. ETH around 3400-3600 is a good buying point.
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12.18 Fluctuation December is the last train to spring
1. BTC continues to reach new highs, but some upward momentum is weak
2. ETH and altcoins are in a consolidation phase after a major liquidation, expected to test again; strong coins will not drop below the major liquidation low, while weak coins may break previous lows; catching the dip is a good buying opportunity
3. Altcoins will fluctuate and consolidate in December, and spring will bloom in the first quarter of next year
1. BTC continues to reach new highs, but some upward momentum is weak
2. ETH and altcoins are in a consolidation phase after a major liquidation, expected to test again; strong coins will not drop below the major liquidation low, while weak coins may break previous lows; catching the dip is a good buying opportunity
3. Altcoins will fluctuate and consolidate in December, and spring will bloom in the first quarter of next year
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12.17 Big brother goes first, little brother follows
1. The leader BTC continues to hit new highs, the second ETH returns to 4000, while altcoins are in a state of fluctuation
2. BTC rises first, if it can't rise anymore, it will then consolidate, followed by a surge in altcoins; this pattern has repeated many times over the past 2 years
3. In altcoins, avoid MEME, SOL series, and inscriptions; these three categories are currently abandoned by capital. Even buying classic old coins like EOS and IOTA is better than them.
1. The leader BTC continues to hit new highs, the second ETH returns to 4000, while altcoins are in a state of fluctuation
2. BTC rises first, if it can't rise anymore, it will then consolidate, followed by a surge in altcoins; this pattern has repeated many times over the past 2 years
3. In altcoins, avoid MEME, SOL series, and inscriptions; these three categories are currently abandoned by capital. Even buying classic old coins like EOS and IOTA is better than them.
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12.13 There is not much time left for ETH below 4000
1. Currently, we are still in the consolidation phase after a major liquidation. For strong altcoins, each pullback near the daily 20 moving average is a very good buying opportunity.
2. The Trump family recently purchased ETH, LINK, and AAVE. Besides BTC's strategic reserves, DEFI is the most mature and valuable segment in terms of application.
3. This consolidation will not last too long, 2-4 weeks, and the next wave of market movement will aim directly at ETH's historical high.
1. Currently, we are still in the consolidation phase after a major liquidation. For strong altcoins, each pullback near the daily 20 moving average is a very good buying opportunity.
2. The Trump family recently purchased ETH, LINK, and AAVE. Besides BTC's strategic reserves, DEFI is the most mature and valuable segment in terms of application.
3. This consolidation will not last too long, 2-4 weeks, and the next wave of market movement will aim directly at ETH's historical high.
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12.12 Every callback is a train to financial freedom
1. During the crash on the 5th, 9th, and 10th, ETH ETFs were crazily bought, accumulating a total purchase of 900 million USD. Every time ETH drops, the ETFs are heavily bought
2. BTC.D has a death cross in the short-term moving averages for the first time in over two years. The altcoin season is on the way, and the main surge will erupt in the first quarter of next year
3. The main focus of altcoins is the transformation of finance by blockchain, with DEFI, RWA, and DEPIN being the leaders
1. During the crash on the 5th, 9th, and 10th, ETH ETFs were crazily bought, accumulating a total purchase of 900 million USD. Every time ETH drops, the ETFs are heavily bought
2. BTC.D has a death cross in the short-term moving averages for the first time in over two years. The altcoin season is on the way, and the main surge will erupt in the first quarter of next year
3. The main focus of altcoins is the transformation of finance by blockchain, with DEFI, RWA, and DEPIN being the leaders
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Beware of the MEME coin facing a wave of going to zero
1. SOL/BTC is in a massive triangular oscillation pattern, and currently shows signs of breaking down. Once confirmed, it will be fatal for MEME coin, leading to a large amount of MEME coins going to zero.
2. Since SOL reached an all-time high, it has not been a smooth ride, but rather has struggled, with its exchange rate against BTC declining instead of rising, and capital continuously fleeing.
3. This is favorable for ETH and SUI, as one rises while the other falls.
1. SOL/BTC is in a massive triangular oscillation pattern, and currently shows signs of breaking down. Once confirmed, it will be fatal for MEME coin, leading to a large amount of MEME coins going to zero.
2. Since SOL reached an all-time high, it has not been a smooth ride, but rather has struggled, with its exchange rate against BTC declining instead of rising, and capital continuously fleeing.
3. This is favorable for ETH and SUI, as one rises while the other falls.
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12.11 Tsinghua and Peking University are not as good as having the guts
1. Currently in a violent washout after a rush to acquire, after experiencing a massive liquidation, market risks have been released. It is expected that after two to three weeks of volatility, there will be a violent surge in ETH and altcoins.
2. The volatility period will be the golden time to re-enter the market. Besides BTC and ETH, choose high-quality altcoins with lower retracement, such as AAVE, UNI, SUI, ADA, CRV, XRP, DOGE, LINK, ONDO, avoiding those with poor fundamentals.
1. Currently in a violent washout after a rush to acquire, after experiencing a massive liquidation, market risks have been released. It is expected that after two to three weeks of volatility, there will be a violent surge in ETH and altcoins.
2. The volatility period will be the golden time to re-enter the market. Besides BTC and ETH, choose high-quality altcoins with lower retracement, such as AAVE, UNI, SUI, ADA, CRV, XRP, DOGE, LINK, ONDO, avoiding those with poor fundamentals.