#加密货币总市值
#比特币市值
$BTC $ETH
The total market value of the crypto market fell below 2 trillion!
Is your copycat okay?

During this period of washout, many copycats have completely returned to the bear market last year, and there are countless high-leverage liquidations!
I also suffered heavy losses, and the principal has lost a lot!

The September 19 interest rate meeting is getting closer and closer. Everyone is optimistic about the chips in their hands and slowly suffers. After the last dark period before dawn, market liquidity is released, and there is capital inflow, a new round of bull market will come! !
There are two events next week that have a relatively large impact on the circle. Here is a reminder for everyone:

Trump will debate with Harris on the US presidential election on September 10

Trump said that the rules of this debate will be the same as the last debate held by CNN. The microphones of the two candidates will be muted throughout the debate unless it is the candidate's turn to speak. There will be no studio audience for this debate.
Harris' team has not responded to the above statement.

Then there is the CPI data that everyone is most concerned about.

The August CPI data will be released on September 11.

The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August CPI data at 20:30 on September 11, which is also the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's September decision.

Affected by the news, and the dog dealer wants to harvest everyone, it is estimated that there will be another big wave of fluctuations, everyone pay attention to safety! !

I will wait for my own spot to fall and add positions, and I don’t have much time left to fill my position!

#BinanceNewCoinMining is now live with the 56th project - Toncoin (TON), a decentralized, open L1 blockchain.
Users can stake BNB and FDUSD into the TON mining pool on the Launchpool website after 08:00 (ET) on August 15, 2024 to receive TON rewards. TON can be mined for a total of 20 days. The website is expected to be updated within approximately 24 hours of this announcement before the mining activity is open.

Binance Launch Mining has launched the 57th project - Dogs (DOGS), a meme token on the TON chain.
Users can invest BNB and FDUSD into the DOGS mining pool on the Launchpool website after 08:00 (ET) on August 23, 2024 to receive DOGS rewards. DOGS can be mined for a total of 3 days. The website is expected to be updated within about 24 hours of this announcement before the mining activity is open.

#美联储何时降息？
#降息期待
#大盘走向
Due to the surprise of non-agricultural data, several Wall Street investment banks adjusted their forecasts of the Fed's interest rate cuts, including:
1. Goldman Sachs: The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this year has been increased to three times, and a 50 basis point rate cut in September is not ruled out.
2. Citi: The Fed will cut interest rates by 50/50/25 basis points in September, November and December, respectively, and the previous expectation was 25 basis points.
3. Barclays: A third rate cut of 25 basis points has been added to the forecast of the Fed's decision this year.
4. Bank of America: The Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September, while the previous expectation was December.
5. JPMorgan Chase: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November, and cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting thereafter.
6. TD Securities: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2024, with 25 basis points each in September, November and December.

According to the latest data from the US stock market, as concerns about a global recession grow, today (August 2, local time) the major US stock indexes and stock markets have evaporated more than $2.9 trillion.
2.9 trillion is larger than the entire cryptocurrency market (2.3 trillion)!
Intel's stock price fell 27%, the worst day in Intel's history. It set a record for the largest drop since the COVID crash in 2020.

$BTC $ETH $BNB
​

#美联储何时降息？
#超级央行周

Before the Fed started to cut interest rates, dozens of central banks have taken "rate cut" measures.

The much-anticipated Fed decision will be announced on Wednesday trading day tonight. At 02:00 am on Thursday (August 1) Beijing time, the Fed released the results of the interest rate decision and held a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell at 02:30 half an hour later. The market generally expects that the interest rate will remain unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, but the focus is on the interest rate cut hints for the next September resolution and the number and magnitude of interest rate cuts this year.

Before the Fed started to cut interest rates, dozens of central banks have taken "rate cut" measures: As shown in the figure below, among the recent central bank actions, there are 31 interest rate cuts, 124 interest rate stabilizations, and 13 interest rate hikes. Updated at 16:45 on Wednesday, July 31, 2024.

As shown in the following chart, sorted from negative to positive by the "latest change basis points (including 0)" of interest rates, the latest situation is: in the most recent resolution, the country with the largest interest rate increase is: Gambia, with an interest rate increase of 700 basis points; in the most recent resolution, the country with the largest interest rate cut is: Zimbabwe, with a "rate cut" of 11,000 basis points; that is, -11,000 basis points.

Countries/regions with large interest rate increases are actively tightening monetary policy. Countries/regions with large interest rate cuts are actively implementing monetary easing policies. For more information, please refer to this chart.

#比特币大会
#牛市启动
#山寨季何时到来？

July is about to pass. Since I started participating in October last year, I have encountered a wave of pull-ups. In March this year, I stopped profit on some high-yield assets, and then I began to slowly suffer!

Life is not satisfactory for nine out of ten times, and any success will not be achieved overnight. I thought that the halving of the big pie in April would be a slow bull, but I didn’t expect it to be the beginning of a nightmare. Starting from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we paid the military expenses of the war in mid-April, and CZ paid a huge fine from the SEC in May. The expected interest rate cut in June was postponed by the data released by the Federal Reserve. The German government began to sell off its digital assets again, and Mentougou began to pay compensation to everyone again. Despite the launch of the Ethereum spot ETF, we all seem to feel that we are in a long night and can’t see the dawn!

There is an old saying that May is poor, June is desperate, and July is a comeback. July started with a bang. The German government accelerated shipments and finally sold all 50,179 BTC (US$3.3 billion) in mid-July. In fact, the current market value of the entire digital asset market is about 2.5 trillion, and Bitcoin accounts for more than half, which means that the market value of Bitcoin is about 1.2 trillion. Will the sale of 3.3 billion assets bring such a big fluctuation? ?
Moreover, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve in early July, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been advanced to September. Coupled with the Ethereum spot ETF to be passed in July, the market is not without good news! It’s just that the dealers and big investors use some news to panic everyone, so that everyone can hand over their chips, or through large fluctuations, let the contract holders explode their assets!

With the listing and trading of Ethereum spot ETF, Grayscale’s ETHE is mainly sold. It feels like Bitcoin ETF, falling first and then rising. The launch of ETF is the biggest benefit in the currency circle, and the stock market is also the biggest hidden danger, but the long-term bullish belief remains unchanged!

The Bitcoin Conference is about to be held. How long do we have to wait for the bull market to start and the spring of the crypto market to come! ? We can only hold on and wait and see! !
$BTC $ETH $SOL

#美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易
#比特币大会
#山寨季何时到来？

The Ethereum spot ETF has already started trading. Jupiter Zheng, partner of Hashkey Capital Liquid Fund, said that the outflow of funds from the Grayscale Ethereum Trust Fund may put pressure on the price of ETH after the launch of today's ETF. It may also suppress market sentiment in the short term, but just like the Bitcoin ETF, investors may transfer funds to options with lower fees.

The Bitcoin Conference is about to be held. Trump said he would attend the meeting. It is said that Musk will also attend the meeting. The probability of a rate cut in September is a foregone conclusion!
Will this wave of decline start a bull market?
Everyone may wish to express their opinions! !
$BTC $SOL $BNB

#以太坊ETF批准预期
#门头沟27亿美元已经开始行动了

The long-awaited Ethereum spot ETF has been approved. It is said that trading will start tonight. My long orders have been closed and profited, but the gains are not great. I think there is a high possibility that it will temporarily fall back like the BTC spot ETF, and then rise again! Or is it because Grayscale will crash the market!

Personally, I think it is only used as a reference for my own operations, not as an investment basis!

$ETH

Is it a reversal or a trap? ?
Has the darkness passed and the dawn arrived! ? ?
#美国6月CPI大幅降温
#德国政府比特币清仓

Combining the recent data and trends, combined with the latest news:

1. Alternative data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index rebounded to 52 today on July 15. Yesterday, the index was 33, in a state of fear. The market is currently in a neutral state.

2. CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 5.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 88.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.3%.

According to news on July 15, bond traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, rather than the standard 25 basis points. Marilyn Watson, head of global fundamental fixed income strategy at BlackRock, said the Fed may act early in July.

3. Polymarket predicts that Trump's chances of winning the 2024 US presidential election have risen to 70%, setting a new record high.
Meanwhile, Biden's chances of winning are 18%.

Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey posted on X that Trump still plans to speak at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.

The 2024 Bitcoin Conference will be held from July 25 to 27.

4. According to monitoring data, the German government address has sold all 50,179 BTC ($3.3 billion) in the past 24 days.

Based on the comprehensive data information, I personally feel that the cold winter may be about to pass, and the dawn has arrived. Even if there is a retracement, it will not be too large, of course, except for the black swan gray rhino event. If you hold on, you may be surprised, and of course there will be good returns! !
$BTC $ETH $BNB

$BTC $ETH
Tonight the big non-farm data is coming, is it bad news or good news? ?
We can only wait and see!!

When the whales/institutions are liquidated, does it mean that the bottom is about to be reached?

#美联储降息
#美联储何时降息？
#黎明前最后的黑暗 ! ?
The Fed’s interest rate cut time is basically determined,
Are you ready?
$BTC $ETH
According to the "Fed Watch" data of CME on July 4,

The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in September has dropped from 37.4% (July 1) to 27.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut has increased from 55.2% (July 1) to 66.5%.

I have said before that although the market has dropped to the freezing point, it does not seem so pessimistic. We always have hope and reasonable layout to get through the most difficult period and usher in the best tomorrow!

Perhaps this period of time is the last darkness before dawn. I will wait for the rise when the opportunity arises. Let's wait and see...

#非农就业数据即将公布 #以太坊ETF批准预期
Poor in May, desperate in June, and a turnaround in July! ! !
Or poor in May, desperate in June, and a turnaround in July? ? ?

After a long June, we finally waited for the hot July. The news of ETH spot ETF came at the beginning of July. At present, the news has been delayed again, but we still need to pay attention to the news at 8:30 tonight and tomorrow morning:

The first one is today, July 3, 20:15 Eastern Time-﹣US June ADP employment, the previous value is 152,000, and the expected value is 160,000.

The second one is today, July 3, 20:30 Eastern Time, the number of unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending June 29, the previous value is 233,000, and the expected value is 235,000.

The third one is tomorrow, July 4, 02:00 Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and Chairman Powell will speak. Is he dovish or hawkish? ?

In 2024, Bitcoin's long liquidation dominance across all exchanges has fluctuated significantly, reflecting the volatility of market sentiment.

In March, the dominance of long liquidations soared to over 60%, coinciding with the sharp drop in Bitcoin's price from about $70,000 to $60,000. This trend illustrates the impact of market adjustments on leveraged positions.

Similarly, long liquidations increased again in June, and when Bitcoin's price hovered around $60,000, the dominance of long liquidations once touched 70%, indicating that market instability exacerbated traders' risk aversion.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

#Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划
#反弹还是反转
$BTC $ETH $BNB
Today's Panic and Greed Index has returned directly to the bear market. Are you okay after last night's plunge?

Will the impact of the Mentougou incident on prices last?

Is it a rebound or a reversal?

According to Binance data, today’s panic and greed index is 30 (yesterday was 51), and the level is panic.

The high probability of this round of correction is related to the news that Mt. Gox plans to start repaying its creditors in July.
News reports indicate that Mt. Gox plans to begin returning Bitcoin to its creditors in July, an important development following the 2014 hack.

History shows that every major news release related to Mt. Gox will cause an early correction in the price of Bitcoin. By analyzing the media coverage of the past three Mt.Gox events and the Bitcoin price reaction, we can observe the following pattern:
.March 2023: After the Mt. Gox news was released, the price of Bitcoin fell by more than 10% in the short term, but soon recovered and continued to rise.
.November 2023: The Mt. Gox incident once again became the focus, and Bitcoin then ushered in a significant price increase.
.January 2024: After Mt. Gox-related reports, the price of Bitcoin rose rapidly and sharply.
These events indicate that whenever the Mt. Gox incident is widely reported by the media, the short-term correction in Bitcoin prices seems to be a precursor to a market rebound. This phenomenon may indicate that the market has formed an expected reaction pattern to the news about Mt. Gox, that is, selling in the short term after the news is released and buying in the expected long term.

According to ChainCatcher reports, crypto-asset investment research institution EMC Labs analyzed that BTC fell sharply to $58,400 yesterday, approaching the adjustment low in early May but not falling below it. It retested the lower edge of the new high adjustment box and made adjustments since October last year. The upward trend line formed was tested downward.

According to the eMerge engine, short-term traders as a whole have entered a state of floating losses. They sold 28,000 BTC yesterday and realized losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. The current market fear & greed index has dropped to 30 and entered the "fear" range. Based on technical indicators, support levels, and market conditions, EMC Labs determined that BTC’s mid-term adjustment is most likely over, and the market will rebound at $58,400.

#山寨季何时到来？
#ETH现货ETF

Recently, almost all cottages have been wiped out, and only a few are lingering on, with a breath of life left!
Is there still a cottage season, will it come, and when will it come?

As mentioned earlier, many cottages have returned to the period before the start of the bull market last year. The floating losses of the cottages with heavy positions have been heavy, and the cottage contracts have been bloodbathed more than once!

The market has been too sluggish recently. I rarely predict the market in my posts, and I dare not easily predict the price. I am not a great god, just a tenacious little leek! !

I have always given myself psychological comfort, cheered myself up, and recharged my faith! At the same time, I also want to bring even a little peace of mind to friends who read it!

I have lost a lot of cottages at present. Several cottage contracts are almost lost. Fortunately, there is still a distance from the forced liquidation price, and some funds have been placed to prevent liquidation!

I think the bulls may still experience a cleanup. The funds in the market are really insufficient. Compared with the last round of bull market, this round is completely different. I feel that the ETF of Bitcoin is a vampire. The main funds are a bit serious. They are either in Bitcoin and Bitcoin, or in meme coins, and they are repeatedly hyped! There are also various new coins online. The market value of the online coins is very bullish. Looking at the vigorous and energetic, those cottages that used to be in the top 20 or even the top 10 seem to be abandoned, neither dead nor alive!

At present, there are too few cottage funds in the market. The market value of the top five currencies accounts for more than 80% of the total market value. The remaining cottage currencies account for less than 20%. The Ethereum spot ETF we are looking forward to is rumored to have new news around July 2. Will ETH lead the cottages to have a wave of slightly satisfactory performance? Let's wait and see!

The high interest rate of the Federal Reserve has lasted for a long time. According to experts' predictions, it may be cut in November. I still insist on what some experts said. The possibility of a rate cut in September is not ruled out. Although the possibility of a rate cut in September is not great, I still keep a glimmer of hope for myself!

$ETH $BNB $SOL

#CAKE.智能策略库🥇🥇
#CAKE
I saw an announcement about CAKE. Today I will talk about my own CAKE and recharge my faith! !

In addition to BNB, I also insist on holding uni and CAKE. These two are the leaders of decentralized exchanges in my mind, especially uni. It has risen back and forth for several waves, while CAKE's performance is a bit unsatisfactory!

CAKE is the one I have held for the longest time. After buying it, I put it in the syrup pool to collect mining income. I remember that the annualized income should be more than 150%!

The amount of uni has increased a lot through these waves, and the cost has also been recovered. CAKE has only reduced the cost, because mining has increased a lot of coins. I bought a part of it at the lowest price of 1.5 yuan. Some time ago, the price exceeded five oils and another part was sold, recovering part of the cost. The current cost price is also 1.5 yuan!

I have always felt that CAKE has great opportunities in this bull market. Whether it is the destruction of data or the vote initiated some time ago, the change of the distribution mechanism and the total circulation will lay the foundation for the value growth of CAKE. We just need to wait patiently for an opportunity. I believe that time will give us the answer!

$CAKE $UNI

#BNB金铲子挖矿

If you have BNB, you can eat four fish with one fish, dig four coins with one coin, and enjoy multiple benefits! !
$BNB
Fortunately, I have been holding on and have not liquidated! !
BNB, hold on! Wait for four digits! ! !

Binance announced that it is launching a HODLer airdrop for BNB holders, adding that in addition to the HODLer Airdrop, users who lock BNB with Simple Earn can earn asset interest, while receiving additional Megadrop and Launchpool airdrops.

The altcoins fell across the board, with the largest drop exceeding 20%, reaching the position before the bull market last year. Is your altcoin still okay?
#牛市前兆 ? #熊市末尾 ?

Today is June 18th, which is said to be called the E-commerce Festival. The currency circle also has a big surprise. Various altcoins are also discounted. Are you leaving the market to wait and see or decisively replenishing your positions!

In fact, many altcoins have fallen to the position before the festival. I have added more than 10% of my positions at this position. At present, the spot position is 90%!

I still firmly believe that the bull market will definitely come, and it will eventually come under the influence of some uncertain news!
So I still stick to my investment philosophy, buy on dips, and stick to it. We should have a cognition in this circle: bulls are short and bears are long!

In fact, everyone is suffering and trying to persist, because they all want to get more benefits in this circle. I think there are people who run away when they make money and stay away from this circle. I dare not say that there are no people, probably just a small group of people! Most people will still go through the bull and bear markets, and keep persisting in this circle, even if they are cut, even if some people are wiped out, because of their dreams or fantasy miracles, they will eventually come back! !

A friend sent a message saying that this may be the darkness before dawn, and I think it may be possible. I have said before that several European countries have cut interest rates, which will inevitably have a certain impact on the Fed's interest rate cut. After such a long period of high interest rates, it is estimated that some small and medium-sized banks in the United States are also under great pressure!

I still believe that there is still a certain possibility of a rate cut in September, and Ethereum will be upgraded again. There is a post saying that the Ethereum spot ETF may be passed next month. Let's continue to persist and wait patiently!

$BTC $ETH $BNB

#美联储何时降息？
#点阵图
The Fed dot plot shows that among the 19 officials, four officials believe that there should be no interest rate cuts in 2024, seven officials believe that there will be one interest rate cut, and eight officials believe that there will be two interest rate cuts.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece", said that four Fed officials do not expect to cut interest rates this year, up from two in the March forecast. Seven officials expect one interest rate cut this year, and eight officials expect two interest rate cuts. This means that a slight majority believes that the basic situation is that there will be no more than one interest rate cut this year.

Traders still tend to predict that there will be two interest rate cuts in 2024, even though the Fed predicts only one.

Citibank, Scotiabank, Joaquin Securities and Goldman Sachs Group all predict that the first interest rate cut by the Fed will be in September. Among them, Citibank and JPMorgan Chase changed the forecast time from July to September and November. BNP Paribas and Bank of America expect the Fed to make its first interest rate cut in December.

The next Fed meeting will be the fifth this year: July 30-31, 2024.

$BTC $ETH

The news has landed, and the next most noteworthy news should be the news of Ethereum spot ETF!

#美国5月CPI超预期回落 #美联储利率决策即将公布
The annual rate of the US core CPI in May was 3.4%, lower than expected, and the market rose immediately!
Waiting for 2:00 a.m., the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision, and then Powell's speech!

#爆仓 Are you still in the position?

In the past two days, many air forces and so-called college teachers made panic remarks of 60,000 or even 55,000. I want to ask, after listening to you shorting, are your positions still there? Will you compensate for the losses of the liquidation?

Collecting tuition fees every day is the first, and making comments is like putting that thing. Alas, if you are wrong in your prediction, you will not be responsible for any responsibility. Won't your heart hurt?

I am more conservative and have been holding long orders. I just made a temporary profit and cleared my position!
I can't predict what Mr. Bao will say, whether he is hawkish or dovish, so I will take the money and run! Wait for the news to land before looking for opportunities!
Stick to our own investment strategy, strengthen your own beliefs, and earn your own wealth in this bull market!

I just found out that there is no loss from June to now!
Although the profit is not much, it is stable and reassuring! !
Pictures speak louder than words! ! !

#美联储利率决策即将公布 #美联储何时降息？
#市场恐慌到了啥程度 ?

The panic in the market is caused by people's fear!
It is because players have an uncertain fear of future trends based on the remarks of the dealer. How many followers have taken profits and fled, and how many panicked people have cut their losses and left the market! !

I think the logic seems to be that the dealer will first use a certain news to influence everyone's consciousness, and then sell it for profit, causing a decline, and then trigger everyone's panic, and use this emotion to make more people get off or leave the market!

The dealers or market value management with large funds want to make more money in this circle, not to pull the market to make money for everyone! They are not philanthropists, I think this is beyond doubt! !

They also want to make more money by selling high and buying low, rather than selling out and leaving the market. Even if they sell, they will always come back!

I am also conflicted. I want to get more chips when the price drops, and I want to earn more profits when the price rises. In fact, it's the same. We are just a drop in the ocean. We can't decide whether the price rises or falls, let alone where it rises or falls. We can only go with the flow!

We just need to be clear that the bull market is not over yet. The interest rate cut will definitely come and will eventually come. We just don't know when it will happen on time!

So when it falls, keep a good attitude and try to get more chips at the price you think is appropriate!

I am typical to cheer myself up, and I also hope to bring a little influence to you who are anxious, and spend these anxious twenty hours together! ! !

PS: Today's market is a bit too ugly. As of nearly eleven o'clock, only these four tokens have risen except for stablecoins! !
$BTC $ETH $BNB