Last night, the market sentiment of FOMO was unbearable to watch. The funding rate for Bitcoin was 0.1, and the annualized borrowing rate on Binance peaked at 80%, while OKX reached 43%. The peak madness of a bull market is nothing more than this.

If we follow past bull markets, this kind of FOMO sentiment would start with Bitcoin down 20%. But the fundamentals of Bitcoin have changed now, and I have mentioned what those fundamentals are. This leads to continuous capital grabbing Bitcoin, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to drop significantly. As for whether it can really drop a lot, short-term predictions are impossible, and predicting the short-term is meaningless due to high randomness.

In the short term, if the increase is too much, it can drop, or it can digest profit-taking in the form of sideways movement.

This sudden drop in Bitcoin saw altcoins not dropping much relative to their increase. Why? This is a characteristic of the latter half of a bull market, the rotation of capital. Many people will sell Bitcoin, but the capital will not leave the market; it will instead buy mainstream coins and altcoins.

Ethereum performed strongly during this sudden drop in Bitcoin, combined with the positive news of Trump taking office and the Prague upgrade in March. I believe the ETH/BTC weekly chart will continue to rise.

I do not hold much hope for the overall market in December; I am focused on the increases in January and February.

The period of January and February 2025 is comparable to the months of past bull markets in 2017 and 2021. In both of these bull markets, there were significant increases during these two months.
Subsequent positive news not materializing does not mean pessimism; I will continue to hold my positions and remain bullish. #BTC☀

$BTC
If it falls to 51600💲, Bitcoin will fall by 30%. There is indeed a strong support near this position.

It is impossible for Bitcoin and Ethereum to fall to 44,000 and 2,400 US dollars, otherwise the altcoins will be gone.
Up to now, the mainstream altcoins have fallen enough, but SOL has not been cut in half, and there is no new low. The weak ATOM has fallen to 5, and the bear market has fallen by 90%, 4.5.

If you are afraid that Bitcoin will not bottom out after falling by 30%, wait for the altcoins to have a double bottom on the daily line and other bottoming processes.
If you are not afraid, be brave to buy the bottom when the market panic explodes.

If altcoins continue to decline, while coins with strong MEME attributes like AI Agent continue to dominate the market,

the next round of MEME trends is on the way,

you need to enhance your research capabilities regarding MEME tokens.

Here are my rigorous steps for analyzing the holders of MEME:

1/ Analyze holder growth

Use professional tools to obtain detailed statistics on holder growth and efficiency analysis.

2/ Assess the concentration of holder distribution

Smaller MEME coins usually have a more concentrated holder distribution, which is within a normal range unless there is extreme concentration.

3/ Detect whether the holder distribution is manipulated

By analyzing whether large holders are dispersed across multiple wallets, determine if the holder distribution is natural.

4/ Observe the trend of holder numbers

The number of holders of MEME coins should generally show an upward trend; select projects with significant holder growth as potential momentum signals.

5/ Pay attention to the impact of large holders (whales) on the coin

Large holders play a key role in the growth of MEME coins as they possess higher liquidity and capital investment. For larger MEME coins, ideally, there should be a certain proportion of large holders present.

6/ Evaluate the proportion of large holders in small MEME coins

Smaller MEME coins may have fewer large holders due to liquidity limitations and higher risks. In this case, focus on the proportion of holders with larger amounts of tokens.

7/ Control the token proportion of the top ten holders

For established MEME coins, the top ten holders should not control a large portion of the token supply to avoid excessive concentration.

8/ Balance small holders with core holders

Avoid over-reliance on small holders; ensure that there are core holders willing to drive project development. Small holders are important, but they should not occupy too high a proportion of the total number of holders.

9/ Monitor the fund movements of top holders

Track the fund flows of top holders over an extended period, observing whether there is sustained selling behavior. If top holders continue to sell, it may indicate adverse signals.

10/ Pay attention to the behavior of holders in new projects

For newly launched projects, monitor whether the activities of holders are abnormal, such as whether tokens are pre-allocated to new wallets to prevent coordinated selling.

11/ Flexibly respond to exceptions in rules

Determining what is good or bad often relies on the accumulation of experience.

In this round, it feels like the proliferation of altcoins is unlikely to sustain, but it's not that they won't rise at all. The upward momentum is simply not strong enough; it may rise for a month and then drop back within a few days.

It's easy to get trapped, and that's one reason why I am reluctant to discuss altcoins in this round. Once trapped in an altcoin, it may never return to its previous value, with a drop of 90% to zero being quite normal.
Additionally, there really isn’t much innovation this round.

The market is always changing; it is not static.
The changes here may be in profits or in long-term logic.

I still have a positive outlook on Bitcoin, but the profits for long-term holding need to be reassessed.
The long-term logic for ETH also needs to be reassessed, especially regarding long-term allocation.

Most technologies in the market can be bought with money; however, relying solely on technology cannot generate consensus like Bitcoin does.
As cryptocurrency develops, it is foreseeable that more traditional large companies will enter the space for development. They have the technology, traffic, and money.
Rather than developing on someone else's public chain, it's better to create your own public chain.

Competition is becoming increasingly fierce,
so the current situation of ETH and foreseeable future have many rising uncertain factors.

Holding a full position in ETH or a large position for the long term is not wise.

Currently, Bitcoin is still the most reliable, but as market capitalization grows, profits can be said to be less mysterious; the unimaginable skyrocketing is no longer possible.

The current market expects the altcoin season to resemble the A-share market in 2021, where many investors are hoping for a bull market with widespread surges like in 2007 and 2014.

Why hasn't there been a surge?
Next, let's look at the data
In 2007, 2014, and 2021, as well as the current number of A-share listed companies:

2007 Bull Market: By the end of 2007, the total number of A-share listed companies was 1,550.

2014 Bull Market: By December 31, 2014, the total number of A-share listed companies was 2,613.

2021 Bull Market: By the end of 2021, the total number of A-share listed companies was 4,685.

Current (2024): By December 2024, the total number of A-share listed companies is 5,195.

With more and more stocks, in the past there were fewer stocks, limited choices, and concentrated capital inflows made it easier to drive prices up, leading to a high wealth effect. Later, as more junk stocks appeared, this was also a significant factor that caused the A-share market in 2021 to essentially be a local bull market, with the index even failing to reach 4,000 before hastily ending and entering a bear market.
This has also led to a situation where virtually no one engaged in long-term value investing managed to sell at the peak, and many suffered significant losses during the rollercoaster ride, being stuck until now, with long-term annualized returns lower than those of bank savings, all without any manipulation from retail investors.

Now, let's take a look at how many altcoins are in the crypto market.

2017 Bull Market: Approximately 1,300 cryptocurrencies.
2021 Bull Market: The number surged to over 4,000.
2024 Bull Market: Currently, there are over 9,000 cryptocurrencies.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Experienced

Stay away from old coins with price divergence that is too high from the annual line.

Principle: In the long run, prices always fluctuate up and down around the annual line. In a bull market, prices trend upwards around the annual line, while in a bear market, they trend downwards.

There is always a cycle of divergence and return, but prices rarely diverge too far; if they do, it leads to a reversal.

Even Bitcoin is affected by mean reversion. (Only new coins are temporarily not constrained by mean reversion.)

From this perspective, you must stay away from old coins with higher price divergences because a price divergence that is too high from the annual line means more severe overextension and larger bubbles.

The next wave is less likely to outperform the market, as other coins are rising while it is still slowly returning to the annual line.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

I have experienced 312, 519, 84, 1220, Brexit, the Luna collapse, Three Arrows Capital collapse, the FTX top-tier crash, the clearing out of major exchanges, the clearance of mining machines, the issuance of documents by ten ministries, the prohibition documents from twelve ministries, the US stock market circuit breaker, the Ukraine war, the Middle East airstrikes, Grayscale's market crash, the US government's market crash, the German government's market crash, strikes, and whales crashing the market, the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes, the Japanese stock market circuit breaker, and the South Korean stock market circuit breaker.

In short, what I have experienced is a storyline that you couldn't even write in a novel; others have not lived as vividly in just a few years as I have. So, this small drop does not scare me.

Usual circulation increases with the growth of TVL, but the higher the TVL, the more dividends there are, and the price will rise, so this is not a big problem.

In contrast, ENA is just a governance token with very few dividends; in my view, it's not even on the same level. The project's vision is not in the same dimension; distributing 90% of the profit dividends to all pools is actually quite simple: the higher the TVL, the higher the income dividends, and the higher the staking returns.

The TVL has reached 950 million; two hours ago it was still 880 million, and three days ago it was still 600 million. The founder of Usual has relationships with many US lawmakers; many congressional members follow his Twitter. Over the years, Usual is the only one that has traded before the Binance launch, which also indirectly indicates the shadow of Binance behind it.

Essentially, it is about replacing the foundation of DeFi - ETH with US Treasury bonds and similar items. The other logic is the same as DeFi, just the DeFi-style gameplay, but this is currently a first case. The previous TRU also played this way, but it wasn't as complete.

Its core lies in: how to decentralize the way to put treasury bonds on-chain. Because APR can be achieved through mining Usual, it doesn't matter if treasury bond yields are 1%; it follows the same logic as DeFi tokens. The mining logic does not rely on the annualized support of staked ETH, just like when you originally staked ETH in LDO; your actual income comes from mining LDO tokens. ETH can seamlessly go on-chain because it has high transparency.

December 21, 2024.

The market has first experienced a liquidity crisis.

Powell's latest speech lowers the expectation of interest rate cuts to 2 times next year, U.S. stocks fall below 20,000 points, and Bitcoin falls below $100,000.

A significant amount of liquidity has been withdrawn all at once.

Risk capital is fleeing, altcoins have all been halved, with 24-hour declines of 20% and 30% being common.

Everyone seems to be in a bit of excessive panic.

But this is not a real liquidity crisis; it's just a panic-induced capital flight. A true liquidity crisis occurs when interest rate cuts cease.

As long as interest rate cuts are still in place, the fleeing money will return.

Moreover, Powell's speech is not reliable; the Federal Reserve is more focused on stabilizing the economy, constantly shifting positions between easing and boosting confidence. Next year may not necessarily see two rate cuts, depending on inflation. In September of this year, Powell firmly stated there would be no cuts.

Do not fixate on short-term fluctuations; look at the long-term situation.

After some time, you will find that those who bought the dip in panic have won again, while those who sold out in panic are left dumbfounded.

Once U.S. stocks stabilize, the panic in the crypto market will also disappear.

This moment also warns us how important the interest rate cut cycle (economic liquidity) is for asset appreciation.

If interest rate cuts cease, the fleeing money cannot return.

When interest rate cuts truly stop, even a $100,000 Bitcoin could be halved by 50% or even 60%.

As long as distributed interest rate cuts are in place, the market will find it difficult to officially enter a bear market.

Panic is not frightening; what is frightening is following the panic.

Stay away from all cryptocurrencies that are significantly above the yearly moving average, because once they revert to the mean, the adjustment period will be long and unpleasant.

Do not overreact to short-term fluctuations.

Next year's continued monetary easing (interest rate cuts) will still lead investors to invest with almost insatiable hunger, expecting higher returns.

A bull market that does not follow history will make people feel this time is different.

Sophisticated, disciplined, and patient investors will successfully navigate the bull-bear cycle and make a lot of money, while most will only lose.

Once again, I reiterate, stay away from cryptocurrencies that are significantly above the yearly moving average.

Friday's U.S. data shows:
November PCE price index year-on-year 2.4%, lower than the expected value of 2.50%, higher than the previous value of 2.30%;

November core PCE price index year-on-year 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.90%, same as the previous value of 2.80%.
November PCE price index month-on-month 0.1%, November core PCE price index month-on-month 0.1%, both lower than the previous values and expected values. December one-year inflation rate initial expectation 2.8%, lower than the previous value of 2.90%.

The PCE inflation favored by the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cooled down across the board, U.S. stock indices and the cryptocurrency market rebounded, and the market continues to bet that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in January and increase bets on rate cuts in March.

(Market volatility is high, it is recommended to stay away!!!)

#比特币市场波动观察 #圣诞行情预测 #比特币战略储备 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Only the real fear, the despair of being on the verge of bankruptcy or bankruptcy can make you change sharply, destroy and give up the way you came in despair, seek new changes in despair, generate faith in despair, "Everyone wants to go to heaven alive, but in fact, only death can go to heaven (Tao Shen)", the process of "death" must be uncomfortable, you don't follow the allocation discipline, because you have never been really bankrupt and desperate, or someone has something to cover you so that you can't experience the pain of losing everything, you can't experience the taste of being heavily in debt and having to pay rent without food, "despair" is Jesus being hung on the cross, Buffett's Berkshire Textile Factory, Charlie Munger's divorce, the mid-life crisis of losing his son, and the Red Army 50 Before the Zunyi Conference, when only 80,000 yuan was left out of 10,000 yuan

No one can skip the process of "despair" in trading

A desperate situation is the only way to survive

Without the process of despair, traders cannot achieve greatness and self-esteem

Cherish the thoughts in despair

——If there is any difference between you and me

Maybe I have experienced despair earlier

Written to those who are desperate after their positions are liquidated and zeroed

Don't waste the pain of despair casually

No matter how many times I tell you and teach you

It's better to be desperate after your position is liquidated once

$BTC $ETH $BNB

December 20, 2024.

Different paths, same direction.

Bitcoin has slightly dropped, while altcoins have plummeted.

This bull market cycle has followed a completely different path compared to the last bull market cycle, making it impossible to apply historical lessons directly.

This bull market has three major distinctions:
① In 2023, it does not resemble the outline of 2019.
② In 2024, it does not resemble the March 12 of 2020.
③ In 2025, it does not resemble the dual-head bull of 2021.

Compared to the last bull market, there is not a single wave that can be directly compared.

All thoughts in your mind about the 2021 (dual-head bull) trend should be erased; history has never had identical movements.

But even if we cannot make direct comparisons, do not lose hope.

The overall direction of the cycle is consistent; it is just reaching its peak through different paths. There may be a rise at the beginning of 2021 and a consolidation at the beginning of 2025.

Consolidation in mid-2021 and a surge in mid-2025.

No matter how much the bull market dips, the peaks and troughs are getting higher.

If you always wait to deploy during declines and then try to recover using various leverage during rises, you will end up not only losing money but also going into debt by the end of the bull market.

No matter how steep the crash is, it cannot fill the cyclical gaps.

All gaps in the bull market will be filled over the next year by a spiraling decline (bear market), compensating for all the gaps from the past two years.

You can choose to escape at the peak of the next major upward wave.

A Bitcoin priced at $100,000 and a Nasdaq index at 20,000 points are already very high; the reason they are not dropping is due to the support from the "interest rate cut cycle."

Once the interest rate cuts near their end, assets will naturally no longer be supported.

Every bull market inevitably dies from capital exhaustion, unable to pass the baton. As long as there is "distributed interest rate cuts" and the flow of currency supply does not cease, the global financial market will not truly collapse.

Look at the bigger picture and do not focus on short-term details. $BTC
$ETH $BNB

Tonight at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and a 25 basis point rate cut is a done deal. However, the market should pay special attention to the post-meeting speech, focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's economic forecast summary, which may hint at the Federal Reserve's aggressiveness in cutting rates in 2025. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week is 95%, but the probability of a rate cut in January is only about 16%. Additionally, the incoming Trump administration is expected to implement policies to stimulate economic growth, which could reignite inflationary pressures. Currently, the altcoin market remains cautious.

But this is only temporary; the market is in a bullish trend, and this is just a normal adjustment. The market remains volatile without positive news, but once good news arises, it can become a reason for a rally; this is the attitude of a bull market.

Yesterday, BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $733.6 million, with the Bitcoin ETF size surpassing that of the gold ETF for the first time. Institutions have been buying Bitcoin, and its price has been rising, but the altcoins remain cautious. However, as long as Bitcoin continues to rise, altcoins will soon soar again.

BTC: After reaching a new high yesterday, Bitcoin saw a slight pullback, but this does not affect its continued upward trend; look for support around 102,500. Currently, the U.S. Bitcoin Policy Research Institute has drafted an executive order for President Trump regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves: advocating for Bitcoin to be viewed as 'digital gold,' suggesting the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and possibly including it in the national foreign exchange reserves. If this can be realized, the current price of Bitcoin is just the beginning.

ETH: Ethereum continued to pull back yesterday; after failing to break through 4,100, it remains in a short-term consolidation. Today, look for support around 3,750. However, it is best not to breach 3,800 during today's adjustment; breaking this level will extend the short-term consolidation period, which could delay the timing of altcoin seasonal surges. Nonetheless, the medium to long-term bullish outlook remains unchanged, only affecting the width and depth of short-term fluctuations.

Tonight, Powell deserves everyone's attention, as this will determine whether altcoins can surge in the short term. For spot users, the impact is minimal, but for contract users, tonight's volatility may be slightly larger; be sure to manage your positions well, as contracts are the most challenging during volatile periods and should be avoided if possible.

December 17, 2024 #BTC☀

Those who like to predict the short term are living in a state of missing out.

The Nasdaq in the U.S. at 20,000 points and Bitcoin at $100,000, both moving forward like a bulldozer, distancing themselves from round numbers.

In the past two years, analysts predicting the U.S. stock market,

as well as those predicting Bitcoin, have all missed out.

Short-term market conditions are unpredictable, and long-term market trends do not require prediction. Follow common sense, focus on the big picture and let go of the small details, and you won't lose big because of small matters.

Expensive chips come from the late stages of a bull market.

If the bull market is nearing its end and you haven't accumulated enough profits, you’ll be reluctant to exit and will foolishly think it’s a "super cycle."

Any investment without a strategy will end in failure.

If you never pay attention to cost-effectiveness and always operate for short-term gains, you will never make big money.

Remember, do what is wrong in the short term but right in the long term with a high cost-effectiveness ratio.

Always chasing after short-term surges in price will leave you with a basket of assets waiting to be halved, lagging behind the market.

Stay away from coins that have accumulated excessive short-term gains!

If you are not yet making a profit of at least 200%, there’s no hope left, and you may have to wait for the next bull market cycle to learn your lesson.

Cheap chips come from the late stages of a bear market. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

$BNB
$BTC
$ETH

Why is missing out worse than being stuck in a loss?

From a psychological perspective, it's quite simple: because in a person's mind, being stuck at least holds some hope. Hope is incredibly important; as long as you have hope, you can endure any hardship. No matter how much you're losing, you can grit your teeth and persevere. However, missing out is different; missing out is devoid of hope. You have no chips in hand, what hope do you have? You can only hope for a decline; but what if it doesn’t decline? Then you can only feel anxious.

After all, in your mind, you believe that the amount of increase should be your profit. What should have been yours, you did not obtain. Do you know what that kind of pain feels like, tearing at your heart?

You will always think, if I had gone all in, I could have made so much money, I could have bought this and that. Unfortunately, I didn't, and I can only watch those around me filled with joy.

This kind of pain, the pain of having no hope, who but the person involved can truly understand?

Missing out on a small market movement takes more than a month to recover from. Missing out on a medium market movement takes more than half a year to recover from. Missing out on a large market movement takes more than two years to recover from, doesn’t it? #BTC☀

$ETH $BNB

December 16, 2024. Continuing to Diverge.

Waking up from a sleep, Bitcoin has reached a new high again.

The last time Bitcoin's price diverged from the annual line by two times was on March 4, when the price was $70,000, and the annual line was $35,000.

Now, Bitcoin's annual line is $65,000 (continuously rising).

The next price divergence from the annual line by two times will be at least $140,000 to $180,000. The higher the divergence, the bigger the bubble.

Outstanding investors always see further than ordinary investors.

The past bull market roadmap can only be referenced, not relied upon. It will reach the peak via different routes, and will not take the same path.

History will only be similar, not the same. #BTC☀

In this bull market, there are three major non-portraits:
① In 2023, not a portrait of 2019.
② In 2024, not a portrait of 2020's 312.
② In 2025, not a portrait of 2021's double-headed bull.

Most investors will only consider short-term results, only a few excellent investors will consider price-to-value ratios and safety margins.

Whenever you adhere to common sense, you will not go bankrupt. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BNB

The latest total market capitalization of the US 'Seven Sisters' is $18.04 trillion, equivalent to ¥131.15 trillion. The latest total market capitalization of the A-shares is ¥100.71 trillion, with a circulating market capitalization of ¥79.62 trillion.

Previously, the total market capitalization of the US 'Seven Sisters' was 50%, 80%, and 100% of the A-shares; now it is heading towards 150% and 200%.

The rapid rise of the US stock market is largely driven by technology, and of course, the leading tech stocks are not irrationally driven by frenzied group speculation, but by performance and price appreciation.

The slow bull market in the US stock market essentially reflects the slow bull market of these leading tech stocks. The lifecycle of leading tech stocks is long, and their cyclical rotation is slow, so the experience of holding them for the long term is very good.

The US 'Seven Sisters', with the latest market capitalization, IPO year, IPO price, adjusted current price, approximate increase, and CAGR.

No.1 Apple, latest market value $3.75 trillion, IPO in 1980, price $22, currently $55,214, increase of 2,509 times, 44-year annualized return of 19.5%.

No.2 Microsoft, latest market value $3.32 trillion, IPO in 1986, price $21, currently $129,309, increase of 6,157 times, 38-year annualized return of 25.8%.

No.3 Nvidia, latest market value $3.28 trillion, IPO in 1999, price $12, currently $66,869, increase of 5,572 times, 25-year annualized return of 41.2%.

No.4 Amazon, latest market value $2.39 trillion, IPO in 1997, price $18, currently $55,263, increase of 3,070 times, 27-year annualized return of 34.6%.

No.5 Google, latest market value $2.34 trillion, IPO in 2004, price $85, currently $7,898, increase of 92 times, 20-year annualized return of 25.4%.

No.6 Meta, latest market value $1.56 trillion, IPO in 2012, price $38, currently $632, increase of 16 times, 12-year annualized return of 26%.

No.7 Tesla, latest market value $1.40 trillion, IPO in 2010, price $17, currently $6,390, increase of 375 times, 14-year annualized return of 52.7%. #BTC☀ $ETH

December 15, 2024.

Bitcoin is gradually becoming correlated with the US stock market~~

The trends in the cryptocurrency market are increasingly aligned with the US stock market, almost rising and falling together; liquidity is generally low on weekends.

Trump established a Bitcoin strategic reserve,

BlackRock's spot ETF keeps buying and buying,

(MSTR) has been included in the Nasdaq 100 index.

The implementation of these policies makes it as simple for American civilians to purchase Bitcoin as it is to buy stocks or funds.

Today's Bitcoin is like individual stocks in the Nasdaq.

Sometimes the trends may deviate from the Nasdaq index, but for the vast majority of the time (over 80%), it generally follows the US stock market.

If you don't make arrangements in advance, when the price rises, you'll only be scrambling at the last minute.

The fear of missing out (FOMO) is one of the reasons investors chase after buying coins, and it is also one of the most important reasons for losses.

Chasing high prices to buy coins can only lead to high risks for minimal returns.

Conversely, if you position yourself at lower levels during corrections, you are more likely to achieve several times the return with lower risks.

Do not bet on short-term fluctuations; focus on the cost-effectiveness of the medium to long term.

Avoid chasing high prices, avoid heavily investing in junk, and avoid contract leverage. Lowering the limit on losses is far more important than raising the limit on profits.

If your loss limit is very high, you could lose everything overnight.