In this seemingly lively bull market, Bitcoin is approaching 100,000, but many people have basically not made any profit from it.
Once Bitcoin has a slight correction, those altcoins that think they can become 100 times more valuable will be like kites with broken strings, with a big negative line falling straight down. The difficulty of this transaction is really extraordinary.
After this round, I only plan to hold BTC and SOL in the next bull market. If the price drops, I will buy more. If it rises too much, I will sell a little, and then continue to invest. In this way, when the bull market comes, the comprehensive annualized return will definitely not be less than 100% (that is, 5-10 times the assets in 3-4 years). Those speculative behaviors that attempt to grab 100-fold altcoins will never be tried again, and I will never step into the trap set by the dog slings.
Let's summarize the key points of the afternoon.
First, there is no pin-spiking phenomenon in the 4-hour trend of Bitcoin. As long as it can maintain this slow rising rhythm, it means that the market has not reached the top.
Second, the recent continuous issuance of USDT, coupled with the establishment of a management team that is more friendly to the currency circle by the Trump administration, these two factors have jointly promoted Bitcoin to advance all the way.
Third, Matrixport predicts that the price of Bitcoin is expected to climb to 125,000 US dollars in December, and Sun Ge also said in the live broadcast before that the price of Bitcoin reached 12 He will sell his bitcoins if the price exceeds 10,000. Public account: Bi Laoyan, Mianfei Jiajun
Fourth, Ethereum and its related altcoins usually start the last wave of market after the big cake completes the fund absorption, and then the whole market is declared over
Fifth, the ancient whale holding nearly 400,000 Ethereum sold 73,300 Ethereum at a cost of 6 US dollars in the past half month. The Cosmos developer also sold 3,000 Ethereum 1 hour ago. Currently, the developer still has 23,587 Ethereum
Sixth, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETF yesterday hit a new high in a week, reaching 1 billion US dollars, but Ethereum continued to show a state of capital outflow, with an outflow of 90 million US dollars. Ethereum is in a difficult situation, and funds are still flowing out
Seventh, Bitcoin is fluctuating around 100,000. Investors must hold on to the profits they have made and do a good job of risk control at this time, especially investors holding long orders must be extra cautious
In terms of BTC, its daily RSI indicator has currently shown an oversold state, the daily MACD has not yet shown significant divergence, and the slope of the moving averages is quite steep.
It can be seen that there is a necessity for Bitcoin to adjust, and the forms of adjustment can generally be divided into horizontal, vertical, or a combination of both.
However, it should be noted that Bitcoin's price is now approaching $100,000 per coin, even a 10% price fluctuation amounts to $10,000. In the context of the cryptocurrency market, a 10% fluctuation can only be considered horizontal adjustment.
Recently, I have continuously emphasized one point, which is that once a trend is established, it will not easily change. This is also the reason why I have not engaged in hedging operations or short trading.
In a trending market, acting rashly is no different from guessing the top at the peak of the market, similar to blindly bottom-fishing on the left side, which is a trading strategy with extremely low cost-effectiveness. Therefore, I choose to maintain a relatively blunt sensitivity in short-term trading. After all, the destruction of a trend needs to undergo gradual evolution through multiple levels, and there is no need to be overly anxious.
According to historical experience, after Bitcoin rises significantly to a certain extent, it often enters a consolidation phase, which is usually the most comfortable period for cryptocurrency investors.
Firstly, a smooth transition accompanied by capital transfer.
Bitcoin undergoes horizontal adjustment (approximately 10%), during this period, capital gradually flows into the altcoin market, initially led by large-cap altcoins, and then capital seeps into various levels of altcoins like flowing water.
Currently, we can observe that ETH, which has long been in the second position, and relatively stable BNB have already shown slight signs of increased volatility.
Secondly, Bitcoin may exhibit significant volatility.
That is, Bitcoin's price first experiences a sharp drop (approximately 20%), and then rebounds by 10%, followed by entering a consolidation or steady upward phase. At the same time, the altcoin market will welcome a violent startup market.
Thirdly, in a bull market, a key operational point to pay special attention to is to select multiple altcoins with different development trajectories for layout, adhering to the trading strategy of selling when prices rise significantly and buying when prices fall significantly, and avoiding reverse operations.
During this round of the bull market, Ethereum has experienced a decline of about 31% compared to the peak price of the last bull market. In the same time frame of the previous bull market, the decline was as high as about 62%.
In the current market, doubts about Ethereum are rising, even reaching a level of nitpicking.
Compared to the last cycle, the decline in Ethereum this time is significantly narrower, indicating that the Ethereum market is gradually maturing, and its price volatility is continuously decreasing.
In fact, Ethereum is in a state of being severely undervalued; in the current market environment, it is one of the asset classes with top safety and investment return rates.
Analyzing historical data, Ethereum often shows the best market performance in the first quarter of each year.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart: Full analysis of cryptocurrency trends ✨
Dear friends 👋, let’s look at the 4-hour chart of BTC/USD. Its current price has reached US$97,522. Overall, it clearly shows a super significant upward trend, and it is very close to the recent high price. Very.
Bitcoin's rise during this period is simply not too strong. The price has been rising upwards from its low point, just like riding a rocket, and it has already broken through the previous resistance range.
The current price is almost close to the super-critical psychological price of $97,500. If it can successfully break through, it may open up a broader upward trend.
Let’s talk about the trading volume. As the price keeps rising, the trading volume also increases, which shows that the enthusiasm for buying in the market is quite high.
The fast and slow lines have been diverging outwards above the zero axis, and the upward momentum is very strong. The red histogram is also getting bigger and bigger, and the power of bulls has been slowly getting stronger.
However, the current RSI indicator is 72.57, which is slightly higher than the overbought area (70).
Speaking of support, it’s probably around $95,000.
If there is a price correction or something, this position will most likely become a short-term support point.
The resistance level is the super important $100,000 (psychological mark). If the price can break through this level, it is likely to trigger a larger round of rise.
Trend forecast is here:
The probability of continuing to rise is 60% (after all, the trading volume is also there to cooperate, and the possibility of breaking through 100,000 US dollars is still quite high).
The possibility of sideways trading is 30% (that is, the price fluctuates between $95,000 and $100,000 for a short period of time)
The probability of a downward correction is only 10% (but you have to pay close attention to changes in trading volume and support levels)
Those who wish for the big pie to plummet every day end up missing out every day.
You must know that in a bull market, "It's hard to buy the dip," you see, during every bull market cycle of the big pie, has there ever been a significant drop in November?
Look, on one hand, there are no negative news to trigger a drop, and on the other hand, there is no significant information that would cause sudden and large price fluctuations (spike).
This month, the only time that a volatile market may appear is at the end of the month on the last day, and also on December 4th, early morning when the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is published, which may lead to a price spike down.
But even if such a spike phenomenon occurs, it is still a good opportunity to go long.
$SOL SOL In-Depth Research: The Rise of Potential Cryptocurrencies
As the cryptocurrency market continues to heat up, the entire market is immersed in an atmosphere of excitement, and SOL has undoubtedly become the focus of attention.
Various signs indicate that the price of SOL is very likely to recreate the brilliant upward trend of 2021.
SOL has already entered the ranks of the most outstanding cryptocurrencies today.
Looking back over the past 30 days, the price of SOL has danced like a lively dancer, swaying freely within the range of 158 USD to 245 USD, with an increase that has broken through 100%,
such a rapid increase is astonishing. Meanwhile, SOL's market capitalization has also been injected with strong momentum, soaring from 74 billion USD to successfully climb to 116 billion USD, achieving a remarkable leap.
From the current market situation, this delightful bullish trend is expected to continue.
Investors generally hold an optimistic attitude and eager expectations towards SOL cryptocurrency. Follow the account: Coin Elder Words, no waste of good skirts.
If this trend can continue to advance steadily, then the price of SOL may soar to 780 USD like a rocket in the future, starting a more legendary journey of value growth, worthy of close attention and in-depth research by a wide range of investors.
Bonk (BONK): The current price is around 0.000019. Since the beginning of the year, the increase has been quite remarkable, about 44.9%. It is one of the earliest native MEME coins on Solana, primarily used to reward Solana developers and community members. Currently, its market capitalization remains high and is attracting much attention. Although its price has fluctuated recently, it is still the focus for users and traders.
Dogwifhat (WIF): The current price is approximately 2.07. From the beginning of the year until now, this increase is quite astonishing, about 1108%! WIF has shown very strong performance recently, successfully breaking through a total market capitalization of 2 billion dollars, which undoubtedly solidifies its important position as a MEME coin on the Solana chain.
Popcat (POPCAT): Its current price is about 1.05. Since the beginning of the year, the increase is shockingly high, a whopping 12882%! POPCAT is considered one of the best-performing MEME coins on the Solana chain, and its price has continued to rise slightly recently, further solidifying its king position in the MEME market.
NPC Solana (NPC): The current price is about 0.0421. Recently, there have been some ups and downs, with a slight downward trend in price, but fortunately, it still maintains a certain level of trading activity. The official account: Coin Old Say, no waste skirt.
Overall, the MEME coin market on the Solana chain is bustling and full of vitality, successfully attracting a massive number of users and investors to participate.
A part of this can be attributed to the low transaction costs of the Solana chain and the strong support of its high-speed network. Of course, the emotional fluctuations in the market also play a crucial role in driving this. $SOL $FLOKI $BONK #BTC再创新高97k #聚焦比特币 #孙宇晨购得喜剧演员 #
The current on-chain MEME market shows significant differences compared to the inscription market at the end of last year; the market environments of the two are entirely different and cannot be simply compared.
From a macro perspective, at the end of last year, the market was at the end stage of a tightening cycle, whereas now it is in the initial phase of a loosening cycle.
As a result, in the inscription market at the end of last year, there were very few projects with a market capitalization exceeding 100 million USD, at most only around 3.
In contrast, currently in the AI MEME sector, there are already more than 5 projects within this single sector that have surpassed a market capitalization of 100 million USD.
Looking at the changes in the participant demographics, the participants of the inscription market mostly gathered within the Chinese community, while the on-chain MEME market has now evolved into a large global market, with multiple trading volumes reaching 50M and above being quickly executed daily. Follow the official account: Coin Old Words, no waste in great skirts.
In summary, the current situation of the on-chain MEME market appears to be more vibrant, enthusiastic, and diverse compared to the past. Given this, it is undoubtedly a rare and optimal time that we should cherish and seize firmly.
Oh dear, this market rhythm is again one where BTC (Bitcoin) hits a new high, while altcoins repeatedly hit new lows, but this is actually considered a normal phenomenon.
Generally speaking, Bitcoin reaches its peak more than a month earlier than Ethereum, after which funds will flow back into the altcoin sector, and then altcoins will collectively explode. You see, this was the case in 2017 and 2021.
That period was truly torturous, everyone was complaining about Ethereum and altcoins every day.
But after about a month, altcoins took off across the board, and the surge was simply terrifying, with multiples of dozens of times in price increases. This is actually the law of fund circulation, just like the flow of funds during interest rate cuts, which certainly first rush into struggling stocks, and then divert to other investment-worthy targets, all in a descending order from large to small.
Yesterday, MicroStrategy issued 2.6 billion convertible preferred notes, and they plan to use this money to purchase Bitcoin, resulting in a significant stock price increase. Then they continued to pledge notes to buy Bitcoin, like stepping on the left foot with the right foot, which drove the stock price up all the way.
Bitcoin didn't drop much, but altcoins fell quite badly.
I hope everyone can endure this difficult time together. After all, we've already gotten through the tough days of consecutive declines in the previous seven months of April, May, June, July, August, September, and October, so this time will definitely be no problem!
The enormous funds introduced by the bear market are currently almost all concentrated in BTC.
The data from ETH - ETF clearly indicates that funds are flowing out of Ethereum, with Grayscale functioning like a continuous selling machine.
Therefore, in the short term, it is difficult for Ethereum's price to perform exceptionally well, which can be clearly seen from the exchange rate changes between Ethereum and Bitcoin.
Only when Bitcoin rises to a mid-term peak and the price begins to pull back for adjustments will some funds flow into Ethereum.
The characteristics of altcoins are similar to Ethereum with added leverage, so the overall trend of altcoins is mostly poor at present. Even if some individual altcoins experience a rapid local surge, they will gradually pull back to their original positions. Follow the public account: Coin Master Words, no nonsense.
As for when BTC will reach its peak, it is difficult to predict and there is no need to guess blindly; just pay close attention to the outflow status of BTC ETF funds.
Yesterday, BTC hit another record high, with prices reaching a new peak 🚀.
BTC’s dominance continues to climb every week, setting new highs 📈.
When will the altcoins we hold usher in a rising market?
This starts with the market cycle of BTC.
👇 ✦In the year of Bitcoin halving, historical data shows that BTC has performed better than altcoins, which makes BTC occupy a higher dominance.
✦The reason for this situation is the tightening of Bitcoin supply and the accumulation of whales (large investors).
✦This phenomenon has occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020, and now it is happening again. Once the price of BTC stabilizes above its historical high, altcoins will start to recover 🚀.
When BTC’s dominance begins to decline, the altcoin frenzy will rise accordingly.
In the last week, BTC's dominance has barely dropped, while altcoins have seen a 30% - 50% increase in a single day. My public account: Bi Lao Yan, Mian Fei Jia Qun.
You can imagine what would happen if BTC's dominance fell below 50%?
What would happen if BTC's dominance fell below 40% or even 35%? 📉 $BTC
I have to say, the current trend is extremely consistent with the views on Ethereum (ETH) since July.
As an asset that has broken through in the larger cycle, the certainty of Ethereum's rise is noticeably weaker than that of Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL).
Because of this, I initially chose to heavily invest in Bitcoin and Solana, while Ethereum and other altcoins were only given a lighter allocation.
Now that the price of Bitcoin is approaching 100,000, Ethereum is still hovering around 3,100.
The upcoming price movements are truly difficult to predict, so I have also adjusted a portion of my positions and added to Ethereum.
I want to see if Ethereum has a chance to rebound or even return to a bull market, focusing on two key levels, 3,500 and 4,000, while the support level below is at 2,900.
If Ethereum ultimately fails to break through 4,000, no one should be surprised.
If you don't trust this market, then just withdraw;
If you still trust it, you can operate as follows:
First, prepare a quarter of your position, then build your position every time it drops by 10%.
If it continues to drop, keep gathering chips, and continue this way.
Then just wait for the market to start. If it stops dropping and instead goes up, whether to take profits or hold depends entirely on you.
Don't chase during the rise; just use a quarter of your position to make some small profits. If everyone operates this way, the main force might get frustrated.
Here is today's key summary:
BTC has shown a 4-hour top divergence, so be aware of the risk of a pullback.
If it tests the previous high of 93310 and it turns out to be a false breakout choosing to go down, being bullish in the short term could be dangerous.
Ethereum has strong support around 3060, with 3060 and 3030 still being key support levels, you can buy here, setting the stop loss at 3014.
At 3 AM today, another 1 billion USDT was issued, which may lead to a false breakout before returning to the original state.
Neiro is really strong; every time it drops below 0.002 it can bounce back, indicating some stability. Considering the clear trend of Bitcoin, you can set buy orders at 0.00196 and 0.0019, with a stop loss at 0.00185. Follow the public account: Coin Elder Words, to avoid unnecessary waste.
Wld has a massive unlocking situation; perhaps it will only see a wave of market activity towards the end of the bull market, so I won't pay attention to it in the short term.
A giant whale crazily bought 27,000 ETH in 9 days, with an average buying price of 3146 USD.
Trading volume has been in a sluggish state, the overall market sentiment tends to be cautious, and there is no obvious sign of large-scale inflow of major funds.
The price of Bitcoin is currently fluctuating in a narrow range of US$91,500 to US$92,000.
Its short-term support level is at US$91,000. If the price falls below this key position, it is possible to pull back to US$89,000.
The short-term resistance level is at US$92,500. Once it breaks through this resistance level, it may open up space for upward movement.
The trend assessment is as follows: The probability of a short-term upward breakthrough is 50% (provided that the price can break through US$92,500 with large volume);
The probability of high-level consolidation is 40% (if the trading volume remains at the current level);
The probability of a pullback to the support level is 10% (if the price loses US$91,000).
In terms of short-term strategy: The current market is in a range of fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. Wait until the breakthrough direction is clear before considering entering the market. If the price breaks through $92,500, you can consider buying a small amount, with the target price at $95,000.
Although the upward momentum of Bitcoin BTC this week has weakened compared to last week, it will not suddenly fall into a crash situation.
From a short-term perspective, as long as the price does not drop below the range of 88500 - 88250, it will not fall to the range of 86,000 - 85,000. On the contrary, if the price breaks above 93600, it will directly rush towards a new high of 96000.
Today, those who speak of a crash are simply alarmist.
Every time there is a pullback of 3000 points, it's a solid opportunity to go long.
At this moment, anyone shorting BTC is practically walking on thin ice; how can it be more comfortable to go long when the price is retracing? Follow the public account: Coin Old Words, no nonsense.
When we trade, what we seek is comfort and ease, not a constant state of anxiety and unease.
The price of Bitcoin BTC is still in a bullish trend, but the upward momentum has obviously weakened, and the price has repeatedly tested the orange line.
If there is a small-scale reversal in the short term, it must be related to the orange line being broken.
Before the orange line is confirmed to be broken, the price will continue to fluctuate upward along this line. Once it falls below the orange line, it will usually fall back to the yellow line.
Basically, every round of strong multi-head trend market will follow this process:
Stage 1: The price successfully breaks through or approaches the orange line (this is the average pressure level).
Stage 2: Oscillating upward along the orange average pressure belt, gradually digesting the supply.
Stage 3: Accelerate the rise until it touches or breaks through the red overbought line.
Stage 4: Enter the oscillation or callback stage. During this period, if it does not fall below the yellow line and enter the oscillation channel, the market will continue to rise in stage 2.
If it accidentally falls below the yellow line and returns to the oscillation channel, then the price will officially enter the oscillation market, and the bullish trend will end. We can only wait for the new trend market to slowly brew. $BTC
Stage 5: The price falls below or approaches the blue average support level during the oscillation process. If the support is effective, it will continue to oscillate. If it is confirmed to fall below, the trend will turn into a bearish trend.
Therefore, from the current situation, the general background of the multi-head trend has not changed, and the price increase momentum remains at the level of early November. The only point to pay attention to is whether the price will fall back into the oscillation channel.
In my view, the big bull market has just begun, or one could even say it hasn't really started yet.
From one perspective, the current price increase of Bitcoin (BTC) is mainly due to the inflow of funds from exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
This is essentially a redistribution process of funds in the traditional financial investment sector, and currently, Bitcoin does not have any bubble.
Think about it, if there are no bubbles, can we really call it a big bull market?
Since the big bull market hasn't even arrived yet, how can there be talk of it ending?
From another perspective, the funds from ETFs cannot spill over into the altcoin market.
However, market sentiment can spill over, and the current situation corresponds to that.
This is precisely why the altcoin season has not yet arrived, but the MEME season has already begun.
Only when interest rates have been lowered for a while, quantitative tightening (QT) stops, or even starts to implement quantitative easing (QE), will the funds gradually spill over into the altcoin market.
In summary, the big bull market has not yet arrived, the altcoin season will appear in the future, and we are currently in the MEME season.
In the short term, Bitcoin's sprint towards the $100,000 target may encounter obstacles, and after a recent surge, the bullish momentum may temporarily pause.
Everyone should pay close attention to the dot plot on December 19 and the period around Christmas, as the market may experience fluctuations during these times.
Lastly, I must remind you that regardless of which coin you buy, you should first think clearly about the trading cycle you plan to engage in. Follow the official account: Coin Master Yan, avoid wasting good skirts.
If you want to participate in the bull market trading, just hold steadily, after all, the road of the bull market is still long.
For various cryptocurrencies, the biggest benefit in the future is undoubtedly the approval of FET.
The approval of FET means that investment institutions can sell the coins directly to their clients.
To be approved through FET, three conditions must be met:
The first is historical significance.
Newly issued cryptocurrencies cannot determine their longevity, so survival time is crucial.
In this regard, coins like ADA, XLM, XRP, DOGE, TRX, and SOL have advantages because they have survived through three bull markets and remain active.
In particular, Dogecoin, which may be unknown to outsiders regarding ETH, is generally well-known.
The second is widespread acceptance, meaning the long-term value of these tokens and the range of groups recognized by the market.
The third is background, simply put, the influence of the leading institutions or individuals.
For example, the foundation of SOL and Elon Musk of DOGE are influential factors.
With Trump's administration, policies will become particularly critical in the subsequent market.
If the SEC begins to relax scrutiny, many cryptocurrencies will have the opportunity to advance to major or mainstream coins.
However, to become a major or mainstream coin, a high market capitalization is necessary; otherwise, institutional funds will find it difficult to enter or exit. For large institutions, price is not the primary consideration; carrying capacity is key.
Therefore, the most favored established altcoins in the current market will be in the first tier during this wave of market movement. Follow the official account: Coin Old Say, no waste of time.
The second tier includes strong MEME coins like PEPE and WIF, but being in the second tier does not mean their price increase will be lower than that of the first tier; these are two different concepts.
The third tier consists of the leaders in various sectors, such as AI, DeFi, and Game; when the timing is right, they will also rise.
On the Ethereum side, the four-hour support level has already been broken. Theoretically, this situation does not support an upward movement unless Bitcoin takes it up, then there's nothing we can do.
Otherwise, we have to wait until tomorrow morning at eight o'clock for the daily line to confirm a close above 3162; otherwise, it will be very difficult for it to go up.
The resistance levels above are at 3162, 3222, and 3330, while the four-hour support level is at 3120.
If it breaks below 3120 again when the four-hour line closes, this upward trend will be considered over, and it will continue to initiate a daily level correction, with correction targets still being those previously mentioned levels of 2904, 2808, and 2694.
The trend of Bitcoin is very healthy. After experiencing high fluctuations after rising, it has shown a relatively significant low supply trend in the past few days. This situation is a healthy adjustment after rising.
The market trading volume was low during the two days of the weekend. Now that M shares have opened, we can observe whether we can confirm that the market is in a low supply state.
From a large-scale perspective, it is still in a relay form, and it is still a high probability that the market outlook will hit $100,000, so everyone can continue to be patient and patient.
Ether is a linked market, and it still needs to test the bottom of the exchange rate. It is not yet certain that it is the bottom form, so we still have to be patient.
In terms of altcoins, established altcoins such as XRP, ADA, ETC, and LTC have begun to rise and strengthen in the past few days, and the atmosphere of the altcoin season has begun to become stronger.
As Bitcoin rises, the altcoin market will continue to strengthen in tandem.
When Bitcoin reaches new heights and encounters resistance, a general rise in altcoin prices will begin, and Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio will officially enter a downward channel.
The public account of the hotel: Bi Lao said, don’t waste the best skirt.
For altcoins, we still have to be patient. After all, the bull market is still in the relay stage, and we have to continue to hibernate and wait patiently.