Let the data speak: The (copycat) peasant uprising has begun, but laying the foundation for victory still requires "the right time"!
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Yesterday’s statistics were collected at around 16:00 in the afternoon, and during that period the entire crypto market experienced large fluctuations due to the decline of Bitcoin. Therefore, when comparing today’s data, the change in market value is not important. What is important is to see how the altcoins perform when the market falls or rebounds.
The result was encouraging; the (copycat) peasant uprising army launched its first recent charge and successfully captured a good market territory.
The single-day market share of copycats increased by 1.1%, which is the highest single-day increase in share since 2024. Bitcoin lost 0.8% of its share, and Ethereum lost 0.3% of its share. Under the long-term emotional pressure of Bitcoin, copycats finally ushered in an explosion, and the initial results are good.
In terms of trading volume, Bitcoin trading volume increased by more than 1 times, with a huge turnover rate of ups and downs, and a strong bull-short game. On the other hand, the growth of cottage trading is insufficient, and the rebound trading volume increased by about 60%, indicating that the selling pressure of cottage was less in the rebound, and the buying power was stronger.
In terms of funds, the total market value of stablecoins decreased by 200 million, the market value of USDT decreased by 170 million, and the market value of USDC decreased by 176 million. Combined with the market situation and data chart, funds obviously began to actively buy after 4 a.m., and the market value reduction of the two major stablecoins was higher than the total reduction of stablecoins. We can conclude that after the funds were bought, there is still external funds flowing into the market. A small part of the funds began to actively participate, and the sentiment is still good.
Today’s data is good for copycats, but should we be excited about it?
I think we can be happy, but we should not get carried away. We have said before that if the altcoins do not follow the decline, or if the increase exceeds that of Bitcoin, it represents a short-term change in the market's risk sentiment. In the long-term shock and the grinding decline, the altcoins have been emotionally oppressed by Bitcoin, and have long squeezed out a lot of "dissatisfaction" emotions. The short-term rapid decline of Bitcoin has successfully activated the buying, which has given the altcoin market a signal of resistance and uprising, so the altcoins are coming.
However, compared with Bitcoin and Ethereum, we can still regard copycats as "peasant uprisings". This kind of uprising can indeed bring short-term victory, but whether the victory can ultimately be sustained and whether the market can be directly reversed in the short term, I think we still need to be cautious.
First of all, under the influence of "time" (macro sentiment), Bitcoin itself does not receive much liquidity attention, and the rebound caused by the short-term decline of Bitcoin has triggered a stronger reaction. This is a victory under emotion. If you want to continue to maintain the subsequent victory, you still need the support of liquidity, and liquidity comes from "time".
The focus of this week's macroeconomic game is Friday's PCE. If PCE cannot bring positive liquidity, then the altcoins are still dangerous. So I think we should be wary of the short-term rebound of the altcoins. Those who are worried about missing out can buy some chips appropriately. If you have a heavy position, I suggest you take the opportunity to reduce your position. If you are still trapped in a heavy position, just lie down.
The analysis is always calm. Don't be pessimistic during a decline, and don't be FOMO during an increase. You can say that I am singing a different tune, but I still want to remind everyone not to hold a heavy position for FOMO. Others may be shouting about bottom fishing just because others are short, while you are heavily invested in copycat stocks. Please make the distinction.
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