The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confi | 薛定谔的猫叔 on Binance Square

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薛定谔的猫叔

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The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was released, which is good for the US stock market and the US dollar, but bad for the overall risk market!
The data recorded 68.2, higher than the expected and previous value, and slightly lower than 69.1 in May.
The single data shows that consumer confidence has increased, and the expectation for a cycle of the US economy has gradually turned positive, proving that US economic activities have increased, and both US stocks and the US dollar have risen. US stocks have set a new record high in one go.
Nasdaq 18,016.6
S&P 5522.68
At the same time, the data shows that consumer consumption desire in June is higher than expected, which brings certain pressure to inflation control in June. Although the consumer confidence index is still lower than 69.1 in May,
Today's core PCE index is in line with the expected decline, but the expectation of interest rate cuts still needs to be accompanied by continued decline in inflation in June to promote the current market expectations more likely-45 basis points of interest rate cuts/2 surprises/interest rate cuts in September.
Currently, judging from the consumer confidence index in June, it brings certain pressure to the continued decline of inflation in June.
Although it is bearish, the bearish factors are not large.

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薛定谔的猫叔

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Tonight's US May core PCE data is in line with expectations. Many people think it is a positive, but I think it can only be considered a negative because the data needs to be interpreted by the market.
Giving you enough room to interpret yourself and then release expectations for interest rate cuts, isn't this the expectation management content that the Fed often does?
However, although the core PCE has little impact at present, it is a fact that overall inflation in May has decreased. So whether inflation in June can be reduced, whether the downgrade will remain strong and exceed the first quarter or cool down, all these need data to support.

The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June, which will be released at 22:00, may provide the market with more interpretations of the US economy and inflation in June.
The previous value of the data is 65.6, and the expected value is 65.8.
This data will directly show the current and future expectations of the US economy based on the survey of respondents by the University of Michigan. The initial and final values of this value have been decreasing since March. If the published data is in line with expectations, the economic expectations for June will increase slightly in the short term, but as long as it is not higher than the previous value, it will still be a decline overall, which will have a certain forward-looking positive impact on US inflation in June.
The decline in the consumer confidence index will lead to a reduction in consumption, which is good for inflation control, especially under the premise that inflation has begun to effectively decline in May. If inflation continues to decline in June, expectations for interest rate cuts will increase greatly.

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