Bitcoin volatility has reached the freezing point again, and is about to go out of direction?

The recent market can be said to be extremely boring, and the historical volatility has also reached a low level, but the law of market operation is like this. After the volatility is extremely low, there will be large fluctuations immediately. We can observe from a historical perspective.

Through the volatility data, we found the previous low points

January 23

August 23

October 23

We marked it in the figure and compared it with the current situation. We will find that the previous market fluctuations became smaller and smaller and immediately went out of the range, and the fluctuations began to increase. From the beginning of the home fluctuation, it has basically been maintained within 60 days

Another difference is that the previous low volatility was a horizontal fluctuation, but this time it was a downward decline. I think there is still a difference between these two. The horizontal operation means that the market has no high trading sentiment, and no one is willing to buy and no one is willing to sell. But the downward decline in low volatility means that the market has no confidence, no one is willing to take over, and the sell orders are released little by little. At the same time, the transaction volume is also shrinking compared with 2-3 months ago.

It has only been about 30 days since BTC pulled back from 72,000. We don’t know how long this situation will last, maybe a few days, or maybe a few weeks. We also don’t know which direction it will choose to make a large fluctuation, so now we are in an extremely embarrassing stage.

Based on my trading experience, it is very dangerous to take more on the left side of the falling market. At the same time, it is also difficult to quickly pull up the falling market, and it is often blocked after a little rebound. Therefore, under this premise, you must not take more when the market has not yet emerged from an absolute strong position.

The most rational state should be to avoid garbage time and wait for the market to be clear before making decisions.

Just like Texas Hold'em, when your hand is a motley 27, will you choose Call or Fold? I believe you will choose the latter.

The current market is like a motley 27. It is very difficult for you to win in this market unless you are extremely lucky. If we, as retail investors, want to win money in a Texas Hold'em game, the easiest way is to wait for the AKQJ+ pair and then play with these advantageous cards. The same applies to trading. Only when the market moves out of the trend and the direction is clear, it is easiest for us to make money at this stage!$BTC #BTC