If the rate cut can be made in September, the bull market is really not far away, and the hype expectations are coming soon!
The Fed may start cutting interest rates in September
Adrian Cooper said: "Our expectation is that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in the second half of this year, perhaps in September. But this depends largely on the changes in potential inflation, especially relative to wage growth. The rapid rise in labor inflation expectations in the past few years has surprised the Fed and many central banks. This means that workers are not only seeking wage increases to make up for higher-than-expected inflation in the past, but also because they believe that inflation may remain high, and they are seeking wage increases.
I think the Fed wants to see decisive evidence that the process of slowing inflation will continue, not only overall inflation, but also core inflation will return to 2% level before really being ready for a big rate cut. Many people believe that tight monetary policy will lead to a significant slowdown in US economic growth, but as interest rates rise, the United States has introduced major fiscal stimulus measures last year, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, which have largely offset the impact of US rate hikes.
In addition, US consumers also continued to spend excess savings last year, and although this process may now be over, I think the US economy is still healthy and it is unlikely to see a big adjustment in the US economy, and the United States seems to be achieving a soft landing. This allows the Fed to be cautious with monetary policy and take its time to make interest rate cut decisions. The US labor market is still quite healthy, and business investment is also quite healthy, driven by various tax measures and new technologies.
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