The U.S. June one-year inflation rate forecast released at 10 p.m. was the same as the previous value at 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.2%, which was bearish. However, the consumer confidence index released at the same time was 65.6, lower than the expected and previous value, which was positive. From the data reference point of view, the consumer confidence index should have a greater effect than the one-year inflation rate, but the market has always seen only the negative side.
The most uncomfortable thing is the data itself, that is, inflation has been repeated and consumer confidence has fallen. This logic is the same as the previous non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the unemployment rate rising, which is a short-term paradox. My personal understanding is that it is still inclined to the political influence of the approaching US election. If July repairs the data for this month's non-farm data, it will be a great proof.
I had a discussion with some seniors in the industry and some large market value management teams around me. We all have the same view on the technical aspect, that is, the market is gradually stopping falling in the medium and long term, and the overall market is recovering. However, the biggest problem for the market is that it is not enough for Bitcoin to stop falling. Most of the altcoins are still under great pressure. Liquidation similar to yesterday's CRV may happen at any time in the near future.
Yesterday, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 3,313 coins, about 226 million U.S. dollars, and the capital flow turned negative again, and the wait-and-see sentiment of OTC funds increased again. On the contrary, the purchasing power of Bitcoin and Ethereum on the chain is gradually increasing. Long-term Ethereum holders have purchased a total of 298,000 coins in 24 hours. When the pessimism of retail investors spread, smart money has begun to take action one after another.
Uncle San has always known that the most pessimistic thing about the market is not the decline or sharp drop in the market, but the decline in good news, bad news, and even the decline when there is no news. Hope is the premise for something to persist, and endless disappointment can only discourage people. The sadness of the currency circle is that this group of retail investors were scared away and sold their stocks. When the market picks up, a new group of retail investors will fill the vacancies and continue to rush to send heads to the dog dealer.
We are experiencing a bull market cycle without historical reference, and this cycle has seen extreme polarization of market sectors. We are also under tremendous psychological pressure of a downward trend that has never been seen in a bull market cycle. When Bitcoin hit a record high, many altcoins returned to the lows of last year's bear market, and even tended to fall further. In the future, we are still facing opportunities that far exceed previous bull market cycles. The passage of crypto spot ETFs has given greater imagination to the hot money that will flow into the market in the future.
Of course, the premise of all this is that we have to live until that time!
In my opinion, the operational difficulty of the short-term market situation is still huge. The strong support of 66,000 points of Bitcoin is no longer a suspense. In the absence of black swans, it basically stands as the starting point of a new round of market. The short-term and medium-term hype of Ethereum is the listing of spot ETF products, which will continue to ferment before the good news is implemented. As for the copycat, it tends to be polarized in the market. When the overall short-term market is sluggish, it is expected to take the lead in the emergence of a few eye-catching sectors, the kind that will be shot and run.
When you don't know what to do, the best option is not to do anything. Companionship is the longest love confession, both for people and for coins. Whether it is some of the copycats that were deployed this year or the core mainstream of early fixed investment, fortunately, there is no variety with zero value attributes and low future expectations.
BTC: Bitcoin is supported above 66,000 points, and the chip concentration area of the on-chain data is also near this price. If the short-term market can effectively repair the technical side, Bitcoin will use this trend support point as a springboard to make the next high-rise test. The short-term support is 66,000 points, and the high trend pressure is 72,000 points. There is no operational market logic for Bitcoin in the short term, so hold the currency and wait and see.
ETH: Ethereum linked to Bitcoin.
Regarding bottom-fishing, ETH is definitely the first consideration in the short term. Secondly, focus on BAKE, SSV, BNB, INJ, SOL and BCH. The first focus after the decline stops. For the meme series, focus on the strong sectors in the early stage, such as NOT, BOME, etc. Both NOT and BOME have rebounded by more than 20% in the short term. It is expected that they will continue to maintain after the market adjustment, so they can continue to focus on them.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美联储连续第七次维持基准利率不变 #美国5月CPI超预期回落 #非农就业人数高于预期 $BTC