At 2 a.m., Powell performed Tai Chi like a master. There was no key news in his speech for more than half an hour. The core dot chart's expectation of an annual rate cut directly caused the market to return to the same level as it had risen. With inflation far below expectations, the market was hit hard, and the wailing of bulls was shocking.
The ambiguous press conference probably shows that Powell was scared by the repeated blows of inflation and decided to put on a new shell. What we need to focus on here is that the difference between the first and second votes of the dot plot is only one vote. There is one point in Powell's speech that everyone can agree on: the subsequent interest rate cuts still depend on the subsequent continuous data.
At 8:30 tonight, the number of initial jobless claims for the week was higher than expected and the previous value, which is directly positive, and the PPI annual and monthly rates are far lower than the previous value and expectations, and inflation expectations continue to ease significantly. After a brief recovery, the market has returned to the starting point again, and it is expected that the adjustment time will not take long.
In terms of macro data, Sanshu believes that the Fed’s caution is influenced by its previous mistakes. While we understand them, there is still a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates twice a year. In an avalanche, no snowflake is innocent. The unexpectedly positive CPI data last night was the result of lower inflation caused by the linkage of multiple data. Tonight’s unemployment benefits and PPI are the beginning of the domino effect.
Bitcoin spot ETF rebounded as expected yesterday after a brief net outflow in the previous period, with a net inflow of 1,478 coins, or about US$101 million. It is expected that the data will continue to rise in the near future.
Regarding the logic of the recent relative stability of mainstream coins and the serial liquidation of copycats, the liquidation of the CRV of the five addresses of the founder of Curve in the afternoon is a typical example, with the highest intraday decline of nearly 40%, and a total of 140 million US dollars in chips liquidated. Although the mortgage liquidation is equivalent to making the mortgagor complete the loss of shipment in disguise, the market impact it brings is immeasurable. How many people are innocent victims of this wave of liquidation panic?
Market opinion has recently been discussing the issue of platform security. Regardless of whether there are conspiracy theories involved, assets should be stored in a dispersed manner, Google verification and other systems should be installed as isolated from the system as possible, a full set of security verification should be done, and core assets should be placed in cold wallets. Most of the abnormal asset losses can be avoided. There is no need to panic about this before we have tens of millions of dollars.
The market rose and fell in the evening, and then gradually stabilized. From the data logic, the first round of rising was a market feedback to the favorable data in the evening, and the later decline was a panic drop in the bargaining chips during the day. The trend is gradually stabilizing, and the rise will come as expected.
The darkness before dawn is really dark. In the afternoon, the assistant counted the chip distribution of the big investors in the past year. The on-chain data confirmed that there was no extreme abnormal movement. It is estimated that those who got off the train can no longer wash it out. This June is exactly the same as last June. When everyone thinks that the market is on the verge of ending, it is really time to start a new round of take-off.
BTC: Bitcoin is supported above 66,000 points, and the chip concentration area of the on-chain data is also near this price. If the short-term market can effectively repair the technical side, Bitcoin will use this trend support point as a springboard to make the next high-rise test. The short-term support is 66,000 points, and the high trend pressure is 72,000 points. There is no operational market logic for Bitcoin in the short term, so hold the currency and wait and see.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve said in the evening that the S1 application of Ethereum spot ETF will be approved this summer, which means it will be approved before the end of this month. The logic of holding Ethereum, referring to the previous Bitcoin ETF situation, is still optimistic about breaking through the 4,000 level within the month. The first batch of shipments can be conservatively scheduled before the Grayscale ETHE is listed.
Regarding bottom-fishing, the first consideration in the short term is definitely ETH. Secondly, focus on BAKE, SSV, BNB, INJ, SOL and BCH. The first focus after the decline stops, the meme series focuses on the strong sectors in the early stage, such as NOT, bome, etc.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国5月CPI超预期回落 #ZKsync空投争议 #币安用户数突破2亿 #非农就业人数高于预期 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC
