June 13 Interpretation of US macro data: Interpretation of initial unemployment claims/PPI for the week of June 8, Recommended reading: ★★★
The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending June 8 (10,000 people) is the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time. The data for that week can reflect the recent situation of the US job market.
Data:
Previous value 22.9 Expected 22.5 Recorded 24.2, the number of initial unemployment claims increased, and the short-term job market continued to deteriorate. Good for risk markets.
US May PPI annual rate/monthly rate, producer price index, this index measures product price changes through producer prices, and the impact of this value on inflation can be expected.
Data:
Annual rate Previous value 2.2% Expected 2.5% Recorded 2.2%, PPI is expected to rise, but lower than expected and equal to the previous value, PPI index lower than expected is conducive to inflation control pressure.
Monthly rate: previous value 0.5% expected 0.1% recorded -0.2%, PPI is expected to decline in the short term, and the recorded value is significantly lower than the expected and previous value, which is conducive to controlling market inflation pressure.
In fact, these two data today can be basically ignored. I happened to discuss with fans on Twitter today. When I mentioned the unemployment benefits tonight, I said that after last night's data, unemployment benefits can only bring 500 points of fluctuations. As a result, the two-way positive PPI only brought more than 700 points of fluctuations. I don't want to pretend to be 13.
What I want to express is that after last night's dot plot and Powell's speech, we can clearly understand that Powell has proposed more restrictive possibilities for interest rate cuts. For example, the unemployment rate has worsened, and the Federal Reserve still has countermeasures. On the contrary, if wages can fall under the premise of worsening unemployment, it will help reduce inflation. Secondly, although CPI inflation has decreased, PCE is still high, and it is believed that the pressure brought by the service industry is still heavy.
After this battle, the optimistic expectations of short-term interest rate cuts are difficult to be driven by such data, and it even feels that the core PCE index on June 28 may not be able to save the already decadent optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts in the short term.
Wait, bullish sentiment needs to "calm down" after disappointment.
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