Although the market finally welcomed some good news, I didn't expect that Powell would send a picture to the market! Several key points can be made clear:

1. The dot plot is not the final vote of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, and more data needs to be considered.

2. The Fed has no expectation of raising interest rates.

3. The main factors affecting the Fed's decision to cut interest rates are the path of inflation falling to 2% and the deterioration of employment data. The unemployment rate is still the focus.

4. At present, wage growth is the main cause of inflation.

So combined with 3 and 4, non-agricultural data is still the most important thing to pay attention to now. One is the growth rate of wages. In the last non-agricultural data, wages have already risen. This time, Powell directly equated inflation with wages, which is the first time. The unemployment rate is still the main basis for the Fed to change its interest rate cut strategy. The higher the unemployment rate, the more interest rate cuts may be.

5. Single inflation data does not mean much to the Fed. 6. The issue of balance sheet reduction was not mentioned, which shows that the hawkish attitude has strengthened.

Overall, the market needs more good news, but it has not been heard yet. Overall, it is neutral and hawkish because there is a lack of good news and there is no discussion on the issue of balance sheet reduction.

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