#美联储利率决策即将公布

1. Inflation data

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the US CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year in May 2024, slightly lower than the 3.5% in the previous month. The core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 3.6% year-on-year. Although inflation is still higher than the Fed's target, the slowdown in the growth rate shows that inflationary pressure has eased (Bureau of Labor Statistics)​​ (Bureau of Labor Statistics)​​ (US Inflation Calc)​.

2. Job Market

In May 2024, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 272,000, exceeding expectations of 182,000, indicating that the job market remains strong. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%, slightly higher than the level in previous months. This suggests that although job growth is solid, there is still some slack in the labor market (Investing.com) (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (YCharts)​.

3. Economic Growth

The latest data shows that the US GDP grew by 2.2% in the first quarter. Although the growth rate is not fast, the economy is still expanding and there are no obvious signs of slowing down, which supports the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep the current interest rate unchanged (Investing.com).

IV. Global Economic Environment

The global economic recovery remains fragile, especially the slowdown in economic growth in Europe and China, which poses potential risks to the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve may choose to maintain the current interest rate to prevent the economic environment from further deteriorating in light of these external uncertainties (Investing.com).

5. Financial Market Performance

The U.S. stock market has been stable recently, with major stock indexes fluctuating at high levels. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield has stabilized at around 3.5%, indicating that the market is relatively optimistic about the future economic outlook. In this environment, maintaining the current interest rate will help stabilize the financial market (Investing.com) (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

6. The Fed’s Internal View

It can be seen from the public speeches of Fed officials that most officials believe that the current monetary policy is appropriate. Fed Chairman Powell recently said that although inflation is still above the target, it has declined and more data is needed to confirm the sustainability of this trend (Investing.com) (Bureau of Labor Statistics)​.

in conclusion

Taking into account inflation, employment, economic growth, the global economic environment, financial market performance and the Fed's internal views, maintaining interest rates unchanged is the most reasonable decision at present. This will not only help consolidate the trend of falling inflation, but also maintain steady economic growth and prevent the transmission of external economic risks.

In the current complex economic environment, the Fed's decision to remain on hold will leave greater flexibility and room for future policy adjustments.