June 7 U.S. Macro Data Forecast Interpretation: U.S. May Unemployment Rate Attention ★★★★★

The U.S. May unemployment rate is a ratio calculated by the U.S. Department of Labor based on the current number of unemployed people in the job market as a percentage of the total labor force. It directly shows the labor market situation in a region or country, and also shows the economic activity situation from the side

Data Influence: ★★★★★

Data Credibility: ★★★★

Data: Previous value 3.9%, expected 3.9%

Release Time: 20:30

Impact:

Impact on the Crypto Market

1. The value is higher than the expected and previous value, 4% or higher, which is a big positive, and the price may rise or even surge in the short term.

2. The value is equal to the expected and previous value, and it starts to fall after sideways trading. The data is in line with expectations, which means that the U.S. job market remains resilient. Then the possibility of the Fed talking about rate cuts through the unemployment rate is reduced again, and the motivation for the unemployment rate to drive the expectation of rate cuts disappears. Next week's dot plot and even CPI are full of positions, which will lead to the disappointment of the bulls who have been maintained for a week.

3. The data is lower than expected and the previous value, the unemployment rate is lower, the job market continues to heat up, which is bearish for the risk market and the market price falls.

Although many previous data show that the reduction in US jobs in May will cool down the labor market, other data also show the tightening of layoffs. The overall assessment is that the US job market in May has cooled down, but the magnitude is small. Because the data is smaller than the previous value, the unemployment rate is likely to remain at 3.9%, and this is also the result the Fed wants. Although the 4% unemployment rate helps to reduce wages and effectively cool inflation, it is not conducive to the healthy development of the economy. In addition, the Fed has always been "evasive" about the issue of interest rate cuts.

Although we have come to many conclusions that the Fed should "defensively" cut interest rates, the cost of defensive interest rate cuts is what the current US dollar capital does not want.

PS:

Add the relationship between unemployment rate and hourly wages. As the unemployment rate rises, the number of people in the job market will increase, and the difficulty of corporate recruitment will decrease, which will naturally reduce hourly wages. On the contrary, once the unemployment rate drops, the number of people in the job market will decrease, recruitment will become more difficult, and the hourly wage will naturally increase.

At the same time, the increase in workers' hourly wages will also bring greater pressure on inflation.

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